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El. knyga: Flood Inundation Modeling and Hazard Mapping under Uncertainty in the Sungai Johor Basin, Malaysia [Taylor & Francis e-book]

(UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands)
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Flood Inundation Modeling and Hazard Mapping under Uncertainty in the Sungai Johor Basin, MalaysiaDidesnis paveikslėlis
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Flooding can have devastating impacts on people’s livelihood, economy and the environment. One way to minimize flood losses is using floodplain maps, which assist land planners and local authorities in identifying flood-prone areas, and provide useful information for rescue and relief agencies for their operations.

Developing floodplain maps often involves flood inundation modeling. This typically requires precipitation and stream flow data, topographic information, the selection of a hydraulic model and the calibration of its parameters. A common representation of floodplain map is based on a single outcome without an explicit consideration of all the sources of uncertainty in the modeling process.

The research presented in this thesis addresses the uncertainty in the flood inundation modeling, which may arise from input data and hydraulic modeling approach. The study area is the Sungai Johor basin in Johor, Malaysia, which is an agricultural dominated area.

By using a set of sample data for Sungai Johor Basin, the case study show the uncertainties arising from an estimation of design flow, terrain data sets, geometric description in hydraulic models and different modeling approaches.

The intent of the research in flood inundation maps is to emphasize the impact of uncertainties in flood inundation maps that not only provide useful results but also suggested further research and improvement of flood inundation mapping practices.

Summary vii
Samenvatting ix
Table of Contents
xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction
1(8)
1.1 Background
1(1)
1.2 Problem statement
2(1)
1.3 Flood mapping
3(2)
1.4 Uncertainty in flood hazard mapping
5(1)
1.5 Research questions
6(1)
1.6 Aims and research objectives
6(1)
1.7 Dissertation structure
7(2)
Chapter 2 Literature review
9(22)
2.1 What is floods
9(1)
2.2 Types of flood
9(2)
2.3 Flood prone areas
11(1)
2.4 Hazard and flood hazard
11(2)
2.4.1 Definition
11(2)
2.5 Flood modelling
13(7)
2.5.1 Mathematical model application
14(3)
2.5.2 G1S environment
17(1)
2.5.3 Input data for flood modelling
18(2)
2.6 Uncertainty in flood modelling and mapping
20(4)
2.6.1 Definition of uncertainty
20(1)
2.6.2 Types of uncertainty
21(1)
2.6.3 Sources of uncertainty
22(2)
2.7 Flood mapping
24(7)
2.7.1 Types and content of flood mapping
24(3)
2.7.2 Use of flood maps
27(2)
2.7.3 Flood hazard map in Malaysia
29(2)
Chapter 3 Study area and data availability
31(14)
3.1 Study area
31(8)
3.1.1 Administrative
31(2)
3.1.2 River systems
33(2)
3.1.3 Climate
35(1)
3.1.4 Land use
35(2)
3.1.5 Flood issues
37(2)
3.2 Data Availability
39(6)
3.2.1 Hydrological data
39(1)
3.2.2 Topography data
40(5)
Chapter 4 1-D hydraulic modelling: the role of cross-sections spacing
45(20)
4.1 Introduction
45(5)
4.2 Methodology
50(4)
4.2.1 Hydraulic modelling
50(1)
4.2.2 Cross-section spacing
51(3)
4.3 Results and Discussion
54(10)
4.3.1 Model performance
54(2)
4.3.2 Comparing flood water profiles and inundation maps
56(4)
4.3.3 Representation of bridge structures in the model
60(4)
4.4 Concluding remarks
64(1)
Chapter 5 2-D hydraulic modelling: the role of digital elevation models
65(12)
5.1 Introduction
65(3)
5.2 Differentiation of DEMs re-sampling technique
68(3)
5.3 Results and discussion
71(5)
5.3.1 Model calibration and validation
71(3)
5.3.2 Flood simulation
74(2)
5.4 Conclusions
76(1)
Chapter 6 1-D hydraulic modelling: the role of digital elevation models
77(26)
6.1 Introduction
77(5)
6.2 Available data
82(2)
6.2.1 Hydraulic modelling
82(1)
6.2.2 Digital elevation model
82(2)
6.3 Methodology
84(4)
6.3.1 Evaluating the DEMs quality
84(1)
6.3.2 Model calibration and validation
85(1)
6.3.3 Quantifying the effect of the topographic data source on the water surface elevation and inundation area (sensitivity analysis)
86(1)
6.3.4 Uncertainty estimation -- GLUE analysis
87(1)
6.4 Results and discussion
88(12)
6.4.1 Quality of DEMs compared with reference points
88(3)
6.4.2 Model calibration and validation
91(4)
6.4.3 Quantifying the effect of topographic data source on the water surface elevation and inundation area
95(5)
6.5 Conclusions
100(3)
Chapter 7 Uncertainty in simulating design flood profiles and inundation maps on the Johor River, Malaysia
103(20)
7.1 Introduction
103(3)
7.2 Methodology
106(6)
7.2.1 Model calibration and validation
106(1)
7.2.2 Estimation of design flood profile
107(4)
7.2.3 Simulation of flood inundation maps
111(1)
7.3 Results and discussion
112(8)
7.3.1 Calibration and validation
112(1)
7.3.2 Estimation of design flood profile
113(3)
7.3.3 Simulation of flood inundation map
116(4)
7.4 Conclusions
120(3)
Chapter 8 Conclusions and recommendations
123(10)
8.1 Conclusion
123(10)
8.1.1 Summary of conclusions and contributions
125(5)
8.1.2 Recommendations
130(3)
References 133(18)
Acknowledgements 151(4)
About the author 155(4)
Index of notation and abbreviations 159
Anuar Md. Ali was born in Kota Tinggi, Johor (Malaysia) in 1973. In 1998, he obtained his Degree in Civil Engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. He later gained his Master of Science in Water Engineering from University Putra Malaysia in 2004. In 2010, he pursued his PhD study in UNESCO-IHE, Netherlands with research focused on uncertainty in flood inundation modelling.









He served as a design engineer with a consulting engineering firm from 1998 till 2004. Currently, he is an engineer with the Government of Malaysia attached to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID).
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