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El. knyga: Science of Risk Analysis: Foundation and Practice

(University of Stavanger, Norway)
  • Formatas: 330 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 21-Jun-2019
  • Leidėjas: Routledge
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780429639555
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
  • Formatas: 330 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 21-Jun-2019
  • Leidėjas: Routledge
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780429639555
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This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout.This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.

Recenzijos

"Professor Avens book is a great addition to the body of knowledge on Risk Analysis/Assessment." Lee Ostrom, Associate Dean, University of Idaho, Idaho Falls Campus, USA

"This scientific approach to risk analysis will make the results of the process more quantifiable and credible and enhance the image of our profession." Bruce Hollcroft, Senior Risk Control Specialist, PayneWest Insurance, USA

Preface viii
Acknowledgements xiii
1 Introduction: Challenges
1(18)
1.1 Climate change risk: Concepts and communication
1(2)
1.2 How to determine the biggest global risks?
3(2)
1.3 Quantitative Risk Assessment as a tool for accurately estimating risk
5(3)
1.4 Security risks: The allegation that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance
8(4)
1.5 The call for a shift from risk to resilience
12(1)
1.6 The development of a risk governance framework
13(6)
2 Fundamentals about science, knowledge and research
19(10)
2.1 Science
19(5)
2.2 Knowledge
24(1)
2.3 Research (knowledge generation)
25(4)
3 The risk analysis science: Foundation
29(28)
3.1 The risk analysis science - main features
29(17)
3.2 How the risk analysis science generates knowledge (research methods)
46(11)
4 Fundamentals about the risk concept and how to describe risk
57(30)
4.1 The risk concept
57(2)
4.2 How to describe or characterize risk
59(24)
4.3 Discussion
83(2)
4.4 Summary and conclusions
85(2)
5 Risk assessment
87(51)
5.1 Reliability and validity
88(6)
5.2 Conservatism in risk assessment
94(12)
5.3 Models in risk assessment: Cause-effect relationships
106(6)
5.4 Rare events
112(12)
5.5 Different actors
124(14)
6 Risk perception and risk communication
138(30)
6.1 Risk perception
138(7)
6.2 Risk communication
145(23)
7 Risk management and governance
168(60)
7.1 Fundamental principles of risk management and governance
168(4)
7.2 Cost-benefit type of analysis
172(6)
7.3 Cautionary and precautionary principles: Robust and resilience-based strategies
178(10)
7.4 The call for a shift from risk to resilience
188(9)
7.5 Improving governmental policies: Some fundamental principles
197(20)
7.6 Some foundational issues related to risk governance and different types of risks
217(11)
8 Solving practical risk analysis problems
228(33)
8.1 Standardization: ISO 31000 on risk management
228(8)
8.2 Guidance on uncertainty analysis
236(9)
8.3 A security case
245(11)
8.4 Climate change risk
256(3)
8.5 Competence and training in risk analysis
259(2)
9 Perspectives on the future of risk analysis
261(3)
Appendix 264(15)
A Terminology
264(9)
B Subjects and topics defining the risk analysis field
273(6)
Bibliographic notes 279(4)
References 283(22)
Index 305
Terje Aven is Professor of Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway. He has served as the Chair of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA) and as the President of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) worldwide. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Risk and Reliability, and Associate Editor for Risk Analysis.