| Preface |
|
iii | |
|
|
|
vii | |
|
|
|
ix | |
| Summary |
|
xi | |
| Acknowledgments |
|
xxiii | |
| Abbreviations |
|
xxv | |
| Glossary of Selected Terms |
|
xxvii | |
|
|
|
1 | (8) |
|
Managing the Colorado River Basin---A History of Reliability |
|
|
1 | (2) |
|
Near- and Long-Term Threats to the Sustainable Use of the River |
|
|
3 | (2) |
|
Colorado River Basin Study |
|
|
5 | (2) |
|
RAND's Role in the Basin Study |
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
|
|
8 | (1) |
|
Chapter Two Long-Term Water Planning and Management Under Uncertainty |
|
|
9 | (6) |
|
Why Robust and Adaptive Strategies Are Necessary |
|
|
9 | (1) |
|
Addressing Uncertainty in Long-Term Water-Management Planning Using Robust Decision Making |
|
|
10 | (3) |
|
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
Simulation of Many Futures |
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
|
|
13 | (1) |
|
How RDM Was Used in the Basin Study |
|
|
13 | (1) |
|
|
|
14 | (1) |
|
Chapter Three Developing Robust Management Strategies for the Colorado River Basin |
|
|
15 | (16) |
|
Scenarios and Uncertainties (X) |
|
|
16 | (4) |
|
|
|
16 | (1) |
|
|
|
17 | (2) |
|
Reservoir Operations Scenarios |
|
|
19 | (1) |
|
Simulations to Support Baseline Analysis |
|
|
20 | (1) |
|
Simulating the Colorado River System (R) |
|
|
20 | (2) |
|
Metrics to Evaluate the Performance of the System (M) |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
Options and Strategies to Improve Performance (L) |
|
|
23 | (5) |
|
Portfolios of Prioritized Options |
|
|
24 | (4) |
|
|
|
28 | (3) |
|
Chapter Four Future Vulnerabilities to Colorado Basin Water Deliveries |
|
|
31 | (12) |
|
|
|
31 | (1) |
|
Under Which Futures Does the Basin Not Meet Water Delivery Objectives? |
|
|
32 | (1) |
|
What Future External Conditions Lead to Vulnerabilities? |
|
|
33 | (8) |
|
Upper Basin Vulnerable Conditions |
|
|
33 | (4) |
|
Lower Basin Vulnerable Conditions |
|
|
37 | (4) |
|
|
|
41 | (2) |
|
Chapter Five Reducing Vulnerabilities Through New Management Options |
|
|
43 | (12) |
|
How Well Do Portfolios of Options Reduce Vulnerabilities? |
|
|
43 | (3) |
|
Which Options Are Most Needed to Address Emerging Vulnerabilities? |
|
|
46 | (2) |
|
What Are the Key Trade-Offs Among Portfolios? |
|
|
48 | (4) |
|
|
|
52 | (3) |
|
Chapter Six Implementing a Robust, Adaptive Strategy for the Colorado River Basin |
|
|
55 | (4) |
|
Near-Term Options as the Foundation of a Robust Strategy |
|
|
55 | (1) |
|
Monitoring Conditions to Signal Implementation of Additional Options |
|
|
56 | (1) |
|
Options to Implement If Future Conditions Warrant |
|
|
57 | (1) |
|
|
|
58 | (1) |
| Appendixes |
|
| A Vulnerability Analysis Example and Additional Results |
|
59 | (6) |
| B Basin Study Options Included in the Portfolios |
|
65 | (2) |
| References |
|
67 | |
