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Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder [Kietas viršelis]

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  • Formatas: Hardback, 544 pages, aukštis x plotis x storis: 240x162x37 mm, weight: 943 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 27-Nov-2012
  • Leidėjas: Allen Lane
  • ISBN-10: 1846141567
  • ISBN-13: 9781846141560
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Antifragile: Things that Gain from DisorderDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: Hardback, 544 pages, aukštis x plotis x storis: 240x162x37 mm, weight: 943 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 27-Nov-2012
  • Leidėjas: Allen Lane
  • ISBN-10: 1846141567
  • ISBN-13: 9781846141560
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Pastovi nuoroda: https://www.kriso.lt/db/9781846141560.html
Raktažodžiai:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.

In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncer-tainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resil-ient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.

What's more, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems and medicine, drawing on modern street wisdom and ancient sources.

Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.

Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge and has led three careers around this focus, as a businessman-trader, a philosophical essayist, and an academic researcher. Although he now spends most of his time working in intense seclusion in his study, in the manner of independent scholars, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity," that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand.

His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-three languages. Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.

Recenzijos

Wall Street's principal dissident -- Malcolm Gladwell This] is the lesson of Taleb . . . and also the lesson of our volatile times. There is more courage and heroism in defying the human impulse, in taking the purposeful and painful steps to prepare for the unimaginable -- Malcolm Gladwell The hottest thinker in the world -- Bryan Appleyard A guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot -- John Cornwell * Sunday Times * A superhero of the mind -- Boyd Tonkin The most prophetic voice of all . . . Taleb is a genuinely significant philosopher . . . someone who is able to change the way we view the structure of the world through the strength, originality and veracity of his ideas alone * GQ * Changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple * La Tribune * Antifragile broadens and extends the logic he used in The Black Swan and applies it to everyday living ... [ it] may well capture a quality that you have long aspired to without having known quite what it is. I saw the world afresh -- Ed Smith * The Times * Taleb takes on everything from the mistakes of modern architecture to the dangers of meddlesome doctors and how overrated formal education is. . . . An ambitious and thought-provoking read . . . highly entertaining * Economist * This is a bold, entertaining, clever book, richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides. . . . I will have to read it again. And again * The Wall Street Journal * [ Taleb] writes as if he were the illegitimate spawn of David Hume and Rev. Bayes, with some DNA mixed in from Norbert Weiner and Laurence Sterne. . . . Taleb is writing original stuff-not only within the management space but for readers of any literature-and . . . you will learn more about more things from this book and be challenged in more ways than by any other book you have read this year. Trust me on this * Harvard Business Review *

Chapter Summaries and Map xvii
Prologue 3(17)
Appendix: The Triad, or A Map of the World and Things Along the Three Properties 20(9)
BOOK I THE ANTIFRAGILE: AN INTRODUCTION
29(52)
Chapter 1 Between Damocles and Hydra
31(10)
Half of Life Has No Name
31(2)
Please Behead Me
33(2)
On the Necessity of Naming
35(1)
Proto-Antifragility
36(2)
Domain Independence Is Domain Dependent
38(3)
Chapter 2 Overcompensation and Overreaction Everywhere
41(13)
How to Win a Horse Race
43(1)
Antifragile Responses as Redundancy
44(4)
On the Antifragility of Riots, Love, and Other Unexpected Beneficiaries of Stress
48(1)
Please Ban My Book: The Antifragility of Information
49(2)
Get Another Job
51(3)
Chapter 3 The Cat and the Washing Machine
54(11)
The Complex
56(1)
Stressors Are Information
56(4)
Equilibrium, Not Again
60(1)
Crimes Against Children
61(1)
Punished by Translation
61(1)
Touristification
62(1)
The Secret Thirst for Chance
63(2)
Chapter 4 What Kills Me Makes Others Stronger
65(16)
Antifragility by Layers
65(1)
Evolution and Unpredictability
66(4)
Organisms Are Populations and Populations Are Organisms
70(1)
Thank You, Errors
71(1)
Learning from the Mistakes of Others
72(1)
How to Become Mother Teresa
73(1)
Why the Aggregate Hates the Individual
74(2)
What Does Not Kill Me Kills Others
76(1)
Me and Us
76(3)
National Entrepreneur Day
79(2)
BOOK II MODERNITY AND THE DENIAL OF ANTIFRAGILITY
81(60)
Chapter 5 The Souk and the Office Building
83(17)
Two Types of Professions
83(2)
Lenin in Zurich
85(3)
Bottom-up Variations
88(2)
Away from Extremistan
90(2)
The Great Turkey Problem
92(2)
Twelve Thousand Years
94(1)
War, Prison, or Both
95(1)
Pax Romana
96(1)
War or No War
97(3)
Chapter 6 Tell Them I Love (Some) Randomness
100(10)
Hungry Donkeys
102(1)
Political Annealing
103(2)
That Time Bomb Called Stability
105(1)
The Second Step: Do (Small) Wars Save Lives?
105(1)
What to Tell the Foreign Policy Makers
106(2)
What Do We Call Here Modernity?
108(2)
Chapter 7 Naive Intervention
110(24)
Intervention and Iatrogenics
111(1)
First, Do No Harm
112(1)
The Opposite of Iatrogenics
113(1)
Iatrogenics in High Places
114(2)
Can a Whale Fly Like an Eagle?
116(1)
Not Doing Nothing
117(2)
Non-Naive Interventionism
119(2)
In Praise of Procrastination---the Fabian Kind
121(3)
Neuroticism in Industrial Proportions
124(1)
A Legal Way to Kill People
125(2)
Media-Driven Neuroticism
127(1)
The State Can Help---When Incompetent
128(1)
France Is Messier than You Think
129(2)
Sweden and the Large State
131(1)
Catalyst-as-Cause Confusion
131(3)
Chapter 8 Prediction as a Child of Modernity
134(7)
Ms. Bre Has Competitors
135(1)
The Predictive
135(1)
Plus or Minus Bad Teeth
136(1)
The Idea of Becoming a Non-Turkey
137(2)
No More Black Swans
139(2)
BOOK III A NONPREDICTIVE VIEW OF THE WORLD
141(28)
Chapter 9 Fat Tony and the Fragilistas
143(8)
Indolent Fellow Travelers
143(1)
The Importance of Lunch
144(1)
The Antifragility of Libraries
145(2)
On Suckers and Nonsuckers
147(2)
Loneliness
149(1)
What the Nonpredictor Can Predict
150(1)
Chapter 10 Seneca's Upside and Downside
151(8)
Is This Really Serious?
151(2)
Less Downside from Life
153(1)
Stoicism's Emotional Robustification
154(2)
The Domestication of Emotions
156(1)
How to Become the Master
156(1)
The Foundational Asymmetry
157(2)
Chapter 11 Never Marry the Rock Star
159(10)
On the Irreversibility of Broken Packages
159(2)
Seneca's Barbell
161(1)
The Accountant and the Rock Star
162(1)
Away from the Golden Middle
163(2)
The Domestication of Uncertainty
165(4)
BOOK IV OPTIONALITY, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE INTELLIGENCE OF ANTIFRAGILITY
169(94)
Do You Really Know Where You Are Going?
169(1)
The Teleological Fallacy
170(1)
America's Principal Asset
171(2)
Chapter 12 Thales' Sweet Grapes
173(14)
Option and Asymmetry
175(1)
The Options of Sweet Grapes
175(1)
Saturday Evening in London
176(1)
Your Rent
177(1)
Asymmetry
178(1)
Things That Like Dispersion
178(2)
The Thalesian and the Aristotelian
180(1)
How to Be Stupid
180(1)
Nature and Options
181(2)
The Rationality
183(1)
Life Is Long Gamma
184(1)
Roman Politics Likes Optionality
185(1)
Next
185(2)
Chapter 13 Lecturing Birds on How to Fly
187(15)
Once More, Less Is More
190(1)
Mind the Gaps
190(2)
Search and How Errors Can Be Investments
192(1)
Creative and Uncreative Destructions
193(1)
The Soviet-Harvard Department of Ornithology
194(3)
Epiphenomena
197(1)
Greed as a Cause
197(1)
Debunking Epiphenomena
198(2)
Cherry-picking (or the Fallacy of Confirmation)
200(2)
Chapter 14 When Two Things Are Not the "Same Thing"
202(15)
Where Are the Stressors?
203(1)
L'Art pour l'Art, to Learn for Learning's Sake
203(3)
Polished Dinner Partners
206(1)
The Green Lumber Fallacy
207(2)
How Fat Tony Got Rich (and Fat)
209(2)
Conflation
211(1)
Prometheus and Epimetheus
212(5)
Chapter 15 History Written by the Losers
217(24)
The Evidence Staring at Us
221(3)
Is It Like Cooking?
224(2)
The Industrial Revolution
226(3)
Governments Should Spend on Nonteleological Tinkering, Not Research
229(1)
The Case in Medicine
230(3)
Matt Ridley's Anti-Teleological Argument
233(1)
Corporate Teleology
234(1)
The Inverse Turkey Problem
235(3)
To Fail Seven Times, Plus or Minus Two
238(1)
The Charlatan, the Academic, and the Showman
238(3)
Chapter 16 A Lesson in Disorder
241(8)
The Ecological and the Ludic
241(1)
The Touristification of the Soccer Mom
242(1)
An Antifragile (Barbell) Education
243(6)
Chapter 17 Fat Tony Debates Socrates
249(14)
Euthyphro
250(1)
Fat Tony Versus Socrates
251(2)
Primacy of Definitional Knowledge
253(1)
Mistaking the Unintelligible for the Unintelligent
254(3)
Tradition
257(2)
The Sucker-Nonsucker Distinction
259(1)
Fragility, Not Probability
259(1)
Conflation of Events and Exposure
260(1)
Conclusion to Book IV
261(1)
What Will Happen Next?
261(2)
BOOK V THE NONLINEAR AND THE NONLINEAR
263(38)
On the Importance of Attics
263(4)
Chapter 18 On the Difference Between a Large Stone and a Thousand Pebbles
267(23)
A Simple Rule to Detect the Fragile
268(2)
Why Is Fragility Nonlinear?
270(1)
When to Smile and When to Frown
271(2)
Why Is the Concave Hurt by Black Swan Events?
273(1)
Traffic in New York
274(1)
Someone Call New York City Officials
275(1)
Where More Is Different
276(1)
A "Balanced Meal"
277(1)
Run, Don't Walk
278(1)
Small May Be Ugly, It Is Certainly Less Fragile
278(1)
How to Be Squeezed
278(2)
Kerviel and Micro-Kerviel
280(3)
How to Exit a Movie Theater
283(1)
Projects and Prediction
283(1)
Why Planes Don't Arrive Early
283(3)
Wars, Deficits, and Deficits
286(1)
Where the "Efficient" Is Not Efficient
286(1)
Pollution and Harm to the Planet
287(1)
The Nonlinearity of Wealth
288(1)
Conclusion
289(1)
Chapter 19 The Philosopher's Stone and Its Inverse
290(11)
How to Detect Who Will Go Bust
290(3)
The Idea of Positive and Negative Model Error
293(2)
How to Lose a Grandmother
295(2)
Now the Philosopher's Stone
297(2)
How to Transform Gold into Mud: The Inverse Philosopher's Stone
299(2)
BOOK VI VIA NEGATIVA
301(72)
Where Is the Charlatan?
302(1)
Subtractive Knowledge
303(2)
Barbells, Again
305(1)
Less Is More
305(4)
Chapter 20 Time and Fragility
309(27)
From Simonides to Jensen
309(2)
Learning to Subtract
311(4)
Technology at Its Best
315(1)
To Age in Reverse: The Lindy Effect
316(5)
A Few Mental Biases
321(1)
Neomania and Treadmill Effects
322(2)
Architecture and the Irreversible Neomania
324(3)
Wall to Wall Windows
327(1)
Metrification
327(2)
Turning Science into Journalism
329(2)
What Should Break
331(1)
Prophets and the Present
332(2)
Empedocles' Dog
334(1)
What Does Not Make Sense
335(1)
Chapter 21 Medicine, Convexity, and Opacity
336(21)
How to Argue in an Emergency Room
338(1)
First Principle of Iatrogenics (Empiricism)
339(1)
Second Principle of Iatrogenics (Nonlinearity in Response)
340(2)
Jensen's Inequality in Medicine
342(2)
Burying the Evidence
344(1)
The Never-ending History of Turkey Situations
344(4)
Nature's Opaque Logic
348(1)
Guilty or Innocent
349(1)
Plead Ignorance of Biology: Phenomenology
350(2)
The Ancients Were More Caustic
352(1)
How to Medicate Half the Population
353(2)
The "Rigor of Mathematics" in Medicine
355(1)
Next
356(1)
Chapter 22 To Live Long, but Not Too Long
357(16)
Life Expectancy and Convexity
357(2)
Subtraction Adds to Your Life
359(4)
The Iatrogenics of Money
363(1)
Religion and Naive Interventionism
364(1)
If It's Wednesday, I Must Be Vegan
365(1)
Convexity Effects and Random Nutrition
365(3)
How to Eat Yourself
368(1)
Walk-Deprived
369(1)
I Want to Live Forever
370(3)
BOOK VII THE ETHICS OF FRAGILITY AND ANTIFRAGILITY
373(52)
Chapter 23 Skin in the Game: Antifragility and Optionality at the Expense of Others
375(32)
Hammurabi
380(2)
The Talker's Free Option
382(3)
Postdicting
385(1)
The Stiglitz Syndrome
386(3)
The Problem of Frequency, or How to Lose Arguments
389(2)
The Right Decision for the Wrong Reason
391(1)
The Ancients and the Stiglitz Syndrome
392(1)
To Burn One's Vessels
393(1)
How Poetry Can Kill You
393(1)
The Problem of Insulation
394(1)
Champagne Socialism
395(1)
Soul in the Game
396(1)
Options, Antifragility, and Social Fairness
397(1)
The Robert Rubin Free Option
398(1)
Which Adam Smith?
399(1)
The Antifragility and Ethics of (Large) Corporations
400(2)
Artisans, Marketing, and the Cheapest to Deliver
402(3)
Lawrence of Arabia or Meyer Lansky
405(1)
Next
406(1)
Chapter 24 Fitting Ethics to a Profession
407(14)
Wealth Without Independence
408(1)
The Professionals and the Collective
409(3)
The Ethical and the Legal
412(2)
Casuistry as Optionality
414(2)
Big Data and the Researcher's Option
416(3)
The Tyranny of the Collective
419(2)
Chapter 25 Conclusion
421(4)
Epilogue 425(2)
Glossary 427(8)
Appendix I 435(12)
Appendix II 447(10)
Additional Notes, Afterthoughts, and Further Reading 457(24)
Bibliography 481(24)
Acknowledgments 505(2)
Index 507
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an uncompromizing no-nonsense thinker for our times. He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor and researcher. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's School of Engineering. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes). Taleb refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.