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xiii | |
Acknowledgments |
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xv | |
Preface |
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xvi | |
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1 Climate change and international relations: An empirical and theoretical assessment |
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1 | (37) |
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1 | (1) |
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1.2 The aggravation of the climate crisis: Temperature rise, extreme weather events, the renewables revolution, and the emergence of the geoengineering option |
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2 | (3) |
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1.2.1 Is dangerous climate change unavoidable? Temperature rise and extreme weather events (2015--2017) |
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3 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Mitigation path: The renewables revolution |
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4 | (1) |
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1.2.3 Geoengineering: An emerging option in the scientific community |
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5 | (1) |
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1.3 The Paris Agreement and the rise of climate powers |
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5 | (12) |
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1.3.1 Understanding global climate governance: Climate powers and climate commitment |
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10 | (5) |
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1.3.2 The rise of populist neo-nationalism and the climate crisis |
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15 | (2) |
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1.4 The climate commitment approach (CCA) |
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17 | (6) |
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1.4.1 The GHG emissions profile |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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1.4.2a The domestic policy profile |
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21 | (1) |
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1.4.2b The foreign policy profile |
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22 | (1) |
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1.5 The drivers of climate commitment |
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23 | (7) |
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1.5.1 Drivers in the literature |
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23 | (4) |
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27 | (3) |
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30 | (8) |
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2 Brazil in the international system: Underachieving (environmental) power and the leadership myth |
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38 | (40) |
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38 | (1) |
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2.2 Brazil in the global carbon cycle and the planetary boundaries |
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39 | (5) |
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2.2.1 Brazil's emissions profile |
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41 | (3) |
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2.3 Brazil in the international system: Economy, democracy, and foreign policy |
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44 | (26) |
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2.3.1 The economy of a big emerging, low-growth, and low-competitiveness player |
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44 | (14) |
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2.3.2 Democracy and political regime: Fragmentation, public distrust, corruption, and social unrest |
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58 | (6) |
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2.3.3 International insertion: Between the Western democracies and the BRICS |
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64 | (6) |
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70 | (8) |
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3 The beginning: Brazil, the climate villain |
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78 | (25) |
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78 | (1) |
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3.2 Emissions profile 1: Giant irrational deforestation |
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79 | (11) |
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3.2.1 Deforestation in the Brazilian mindset and in Brazilian history: The temperate Araucaria forest, the tropical Atlantic forest, and the Cerrado savanna |
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81 | (3) |
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3.2.2 Deforestation in the Amazon: Economic and political drivers |
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84 | (3) |
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3.2.3 The rise of agriculture |
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87 | (1) |
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3.2.4 Energy trends: The decline of renewables |
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88 | (2) |
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3.3 Domestic climate policy profile 1: The lack of action |
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90 | (2) |
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3.4 Foreign climate policy profile 1: A world divided by income: The Brazilian contribution to the UNFCCC (1992--2004) |
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92 | (6) |
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3.4.1 The origins of the Brazilian position on climate change and Rio 92 |
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92 | (2) |
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94 | (4) |
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3.5 Final considerations: Low climate commitment, Amazon disorders, and strong conservative forces |
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98 | (5) |
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4 The rising: Brazil, the developing climate leader? |
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103 | (32) |
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103 | (2) |
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4.2 Emissions profile 2: Deforestation control and drastic decline |
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105 | (10) |
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4.2.1 Deforestation in the Amazon: Breaking the path of iron and fire |
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106 | (4) |
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4.2.2 Ambiguous trends in the energy sector: Hydroelectricity, ethanol, and fossilization |
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110 | (4) |
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4.2.3 Agriculture: Increasing production and efficiency |
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114 | (1) |
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4.3 Domestic climate policy profile 2: Rapid and intense change |
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115 | (4) |
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4.3.1 Domestic climate mitigation policies |
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116 | (3) |
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4.4 Foreign climate policy profile 2: The transition to moderation and activism |
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119 | (4) |
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4.5 The forces behind Brazilian climate activism |
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123 | (4) |
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4.6 Final considerations: Moderate climate commitment, overcoming the Amazon disorders, and the rise of reformist forces |
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127 | (8) |
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5 The decline: Brazil, the climate-negligent |
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135 | (38) |
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135 | (2) |
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5.2 Emissions profile 3: The return of high emissions |
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137 | (11) |
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5.2.1 Deforestation makes a comeback |
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139 | (3) |
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5.2.2 Further fossilization of the energy matrix |
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142 | (5) |
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5.2.3 Agriculture: Emissions efficiency on the ground, conservative movements in politics |
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147 | (1) |
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5.3 Domestic climate policy profile 3: Stagnation and contraction |
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148 | (4) |
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5.3.2 The emissions market and the emissions target |
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151 | (1) |
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5.4 Foreign climate policy profile 3: The conservative setback |
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152 | (7) |
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5.5 The drivers of the decline |
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159 | (3) |
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5.6 The Temer administration: New economic policy, same old conservative persistence |
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162 | (3) |
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5.7 Final considerations: Low climate commitment, Amazon Neglect, and the rise of conservative forces |
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165 | (8) |
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6 The future: Brazil and the bases for true climate leadership |
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173 | (33) |
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6.1 Summarizing the three periods |
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173 | (9) |
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6.1.1 The sources of climate commitment |
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178 | (4) |
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6.2 The future of climate commitment in Brazil: Dealing with Amazon Neglect |
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182 | (8) |
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6.2.1 The future of the emissions profile: The key is the Amazon rainforest |
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185 | (2) |
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6.2.2 The future of domestic climate policy |
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187 | (2) |
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6.2.3 The future of climate foreign policy |
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189 | (1) |
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6.3 The drivers of climate commitment in the coming years |
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190 | (3) |
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6.4 The bases for true Brazilian climate leadership: Democracy, economy, and international insertion |
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193 | (13) |
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6.4.1 Foreign policy, manifest destiny, democracy, and the rise and fall of the climate myth |
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193 | (3) |
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6.4.2 The bases for realistic Brazilian climate leadership: A proposal |
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196 | (10) |
Index |
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206 | |