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El. knyga: Calming the Storms: The Carry Trade, the Banking School and British Financial Crises Since 1825

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This book exposes, for the first time in modern scholarship, the role that the rise of the Carry Trade played in British financial crises between 1825 and 1866, how in reaction the Bank of England improved its management of monetary policy after 1866 and how those lessons have been forgotten since the 1970s. Britain is one of the few major capitalist economies in the world to have avoided severe systemic financial crises for more than 100 years of its history—between 1866 and 1973. Beforehand, it suffered a series of serious banking panics, in 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857-58 and 1866. Since the 1970s banking instability has returned again, with the global financial crisis of 2007-09 hitting Britain hard. Economists and policymakers have asked what can be learnt from Britain’s experience of the disappearance and reappearance of crises to help efforts to prevent future ones. This book answers that question with a major reassessment of Britain’s financial history over the past two centuries. It does so by applying the long-neglected ideas of the British Banking School to explain how crises can occur because of the Carry Trade. This book is essential reading for economists and historians of modern Britain, practitioners and policymakers, as well as anyone who is affected by financial crises and their consequences.

1 Introduction
1(20)
1.1 The Carry Trade and the Banking School
3(2)
1.2 A British Bank Is Run with Precision?
5(4)
1.3 Current Research in Economic History
9(2)
1.4 The Monetary Thought of the Non-conformist Conscience
11(2)
1.5 Re-introducing the Banking School
13(8)
2 Peel's Economic-Policy Regime Change in Britain During the Early Nineteenth Century
21(34)
2.1 Peel's Policies
23(2)
2.2 Opening up Trade
25(10)
2.3 Currency
35(7)
2.4 Interest Rates
42(4)
2.5 Conclusion
46(9)
3 The Ideas and Policies of the Banking School
55(36)
3.1 The Banking School as a Reaction Against Peel's Policies
56(5)
3.2 The Banking School and Interest Rates
61(5)
3.3 Testing the Banking School's Theories with Charts
66(11)
3.4 Testing the Banking School's Theories with Econometrics
77(8)
3.5 Summary of Conclusions
85(6)
4 The Crises of 1825 and 1837-1839
91(46)
4.1 1825: An Overview of the First Crisis of the Gold Standard Era
92(6)
4.2 The Run-Up to the 1825 Crisis
98(4)
4.3 The Bullion Drain of 1810
102(2)
4.4 The Drain of 1816-1818
104(1)
4.5 The Drain of 1825
105(7)
4.6 The Wider Consequences of the 1825 Crisis
112(5)
4.7 The Crises of 1837-1839
117(3)
4.8 The Effect of the Slavery Abolition Act of 1833
120(1)
4.9 The Two Schools and the 1830s Crises
121(8)
4.10 Consequences of the 1830s Crises
129(8)
5 The 1847 Crises
137(30)
5.1 An Overview of the Crises
138(4)
5.2 The First Phase of the Crisis
142(11)
5.3 The Second Phase of the Crisis
153(6)
5.4 The Consequences of the Crisis
159(8)
6 The 1857-1858 Crisis
167(32)
6.1 The Currency School's and Banking School's Ideas in the 1850s
168(3)
6.2 An Overview of the 1857-1858 Crisis
171(7)
6.3 Bullion Flows to France and the Continent
178(3)
6.4 Capital Flows and the United States
181(3)
6.5 Capital Flows to Egypt, India and China
184(4)
6.6 The Worst Period of the Crisis
188(4)
6.7 The Consequences of the Crisis
192(7)
7 The Uncertainties of the 1860s and the Crisis of 1866
199(48)
7.1 The Banking School and the Crisis of 1866
203(5)
7.2 The Background to the Crisis of 1866
208(5)
7.3 The American Civil War and the Cotton Industry
213(4)
7.4 Europe and the Crisis of 1864
217(3)
7.5 The Indian Connection to the Crisis of 1866
220(9)
7.6 Limited Companies or Interest Rates?
229(6)
7.7 Consequences of the Crisis
235(12)
8 The Fading Away of Crises After 1866
247(28)
8.1 An Overview of the Period
249(6)
8.2 The Build-Up to Problems in 1873
255(2)
8.3 The Peak of the 1873 Mini-Crisis
257(3)
8.4 Mini-Crises in the Remainder of the Nineteenth Century
260(15)
8.4.1 1878
260(2)
8.4.2 1882
262(1)
8.4.3 1884-1885
263(4)
8.4.4 1888
267(1)
8.4.5 1890
268(2)
8.4.6 The Late 1890s
270(5)
9 The Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries: From the Banking School to the Carry Trade
275(38)
9.1 Lessons from the Banking School's Ideas
277(3)
9.2 The Carry Trade and Economic Theory
280(5)
9.3 Carry Trades, Interest Rates, Capital Flows and Crises
285(2)
9.4 The Interwar and Post-War Tears
287(4)
9.5 The Secondary Banking Crisis of 1973-1975
291(4)
9.6 The Crisis of 2007-2009
295(4)
9.7 The Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond
299(2)
9.8 Policy Prescriptions
301(12)
10 Conclusion: Calming the Storms
313(14)
10.1 Going Back and Forth for Two Centuries
315(3)
10.2 The Disappearance and Reappearance of British Banking Crises
318(4)
10.3 The Carry Trade in British History
322(5)
Appendix: Details of Econometric Analysis in
Chapter 2
327(6)
Bibliography 333(20)
Index 353
Charles Read is a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow in History and an Affiliated Lecturer in Economics and History at the University of Cambridge. He is also a Fellow, Tutor, College Lecturer and Director of Studies at Corpus Christi College and a Research Associate at the Centre for Financial History at Darwin College. His previous research has won the Thirsk-Feinstein PhD Dissertation Prize, the T.S. Ashton Prize, and the New Researcher Prize of the Economic History Society and a prize from the International Economic History Association for the best doctoral dissertation completed in 2015, 2016 or 2017. He has also worked as a writer and editor at The Economist and as a research associate at an investment bank in London.