Tables and Figures |
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xii | |
About the Authors |
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xvi | |
Preface |
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xvii | |
PART I The 2008 Presidential Election |
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1 | |
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1 The Nomination Struggle With Brian Pearson |
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14 | |
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15 | |
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The Rules of the Nomination System |
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17 | |
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The Dynamics of Multicandidate Campaigns |
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25 | |
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Explaining Who Won and Who Lost in 2008 |
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28 | |
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2 The General Election Campaign |
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38 | |
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The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices |
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38 | |
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Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves |
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40 | |
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Three Weeks, Four Debates |
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46 | |
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End Game: The Battle over Turnout |
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48 | |
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Did the Campaign Make a Difference in the Outcome? |
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52 | |
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56 | |
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57 | |
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64 | |
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68 | |
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Electoral Change in the Postwar South |
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71 | |
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74 | |
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The Electoral Vote Balance |
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77 | |
PART II Voting Behavior in the 2008 Presidential Election |
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80 | |
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85 | |
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87 | |
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89 | |
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Voter Turnout among Social Groups |
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94 | |
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Why Did Voter Turnout Decline after 1960? |
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102 | |
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Election-Specific Factors |
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108 | |
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Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? |
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109 | |
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5 Social Forces and the Vote |
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116 | |
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How Social Groups Voted in 2008 |
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117 | |
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How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years |
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125 | |
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Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down |
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139 | |
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6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote |
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142 | |
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Attitudes toward the Candidates |
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143 | |
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145 | |
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The Concerns of the Electorate |
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150 | |
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Issue Positions and Perceptions |
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152 | |
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156 | |
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Apparent Issue Voting in 2008 |
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160 | |
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166 | |
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7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice |
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169 | |
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What Is Retrospective Voting? |
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170 | |
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Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems |
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173 | |
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Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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177 | |
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Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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183 | |
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Evaluations of the Incumbent |
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185 | |
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The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations |
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187 | |
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191 | |
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8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote |
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193 | |
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Party Identification: The Standard View |
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194 | |
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Party Identification: An Alternative View |
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195 | |
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Party Identification in the Electorate |
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197 | |
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Party Identification and the Vote |
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204 | |
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Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations |
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207 | |
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220 | |
PART III The 2008 Congressional Elections |
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223 | |
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9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2008 |
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228 | |
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Election Outcomes in 2008 |
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229 | |
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Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes |
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241 | |
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The 2008 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
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252 | |
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The 2010 Elections and Beyond |
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260 | |
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10 The Congressional Electorate in 2008 |
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270 | |
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Social Forces and the Congressional Vote |
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270 | |
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Issues and the Congressional Vote |
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273 | |
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Party Identification and the Congressional Vote |
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275 | |
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Incumbency and the Congressional Vote |
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276 | |
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The Congressional Vote as Referendum |
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278 | |
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Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote |
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281 | |
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282 | |
PART IV The 2008 Elections in Perspective |
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284 | |
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11 The 2008 Elections and the Future of American Politics |
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290 | |
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Prospects for the Democrats |
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296 | |
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Prospects for the Republicans |
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299 | |
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Prospects for a New Political Party |
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304 | |
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Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility |
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306 | |
Appendix |
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307 | |
Notes |
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313 | |
Suggested Readings |
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383 | |
Index |
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397 | |