Tables and Figures |
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viii | |
Preface |
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xiii | |
About the Authors |
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xvii | |
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1 | (15) |
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4 | (5) |
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Voters and the Act of Voting |
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9 | (1) |
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10 | (2) |
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12 | (4) |
Part I: The 2012 Presidential Election |
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1 The Nomination Struggle |
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16 | (24) |
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18 | (1) |
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The Rules of the Nomination System |
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19 | (10) |
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The Dynamics of Multicandidate Campaigns |
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29 | (11) |
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2 The General Election Campaign |
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40 | (18) |
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The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices |
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40 | (2) |
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Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves |
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42 | (3) |
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From the Conventions to the Debates |
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45 | (4) |
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The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout |
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49 | (5) |
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Did the Campaign Make a Difference? |
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54 | (4) |
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58 | (25) |
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64 | (3) |
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67 | (4) |
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71 | (4) |
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Electoral Change in the Postwar South |
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75 | (4) |
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The Electoral Vote Balance |
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79 | (4) |
Part II: Voting Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election |
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83 | (33) |
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85 | (3) |
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88 | (5) |
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Voter Turnout among Social Groups |
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93 | (10) |
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Changes in Turnout after 1960 |
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103 | (5) |
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Election-Specific Factors |
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108 | (2) |
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Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? |
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110 | (6) |
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5 Social Forces and the Vote |
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116 | (30) |
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How Social Groups Voted in 2012 |
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117 | (10) |
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How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years |
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127 | (16) |
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Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down |
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143 | (3) |
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6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote |
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146 | (24) |
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Attitudes toward the Candidates |
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147 | (3) |
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150 | (5) |
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Issue Positions and Perceptions |
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155 | (3) |
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158 | (2) |
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Apparent Issue Voting in 2012 |
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160 | (9) |
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169 | (1) |
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7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice |
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170 | (23) |
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What Is Retrospective Voting? |
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171 | (4) |
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Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems |
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175 | (2) |
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Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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177 | (6) |
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Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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183 | (2) |
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Evaluations of the Incumbent |
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185 | (3) |
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The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations |
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188 | (3) |
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191 | (2) |
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8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote |
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193 | (32) |
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Party Identification: The Original View |
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194 | (1) |
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Party Identification: An Alternative View |
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195 | (1) |
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Party Identification in the Electorate |
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196 | (10) |
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Hispanic Partisanship in 2008 and 2012 |
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206 | (1) |
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Party Identification and the Vote |
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207 | (3) |
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Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations |
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210 | (11) |
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221 | (4) |
Part III: The 2012 and 2014 Congressional Elections |
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9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2012 |
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225 | (43) |
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Election Outcomes in 2012 |
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226 | (13) |
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Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes |
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239 | (11) |
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The 2012 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
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250 | (7) |
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The 2014 Elections and Beyond |
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257 | (11) |
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10 The Congressional Electorate in 2012 |
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268 | (13) |
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Social Forces and the Congressional Vote |
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268 | (3) |
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Issues and the Congressional Vote |
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271 | (1) |
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Party Identification and the Congressional Vote |
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272 | (2) |
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Incumbency and the Congressional Vote |
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274 | (2) |
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The Congressional Vote as Referendum |
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276 | (2) |
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Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote |
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278 | (2) |
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280 | (1) |
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11 The 2014 Congressional Elections |
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281 | (36) |
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281 | (3) |
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Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results |
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284 | (3) |
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National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections |
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287 | (17) |
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The 2014 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
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304 | (6) |
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The 2016 Elections and Beyond |
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310 | (7) |
Part IV: The 2012 and 2014 Elections in Perspective |
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12 The 2012 and 2014 Elections and the Future of American Politics |
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317 | (19) |
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Are Midterm Elections Predictive? |
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321 | (6) |
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Prospects for the Democrats , |
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327 | (4) |
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Prospects for the Republicans |
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331 | (5) |
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13 The Dynamics of American Elections |
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336 | (13) |
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The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System |
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336 | (3) |
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The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization |
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339 | (3) |
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Change and Continuity in Turnout |
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342 | (2) |
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Continuities in Electoral Partisanship |
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344 | (1) |
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Changes in the Partisan Electorate |
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345 | (1) |
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Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress |
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346 | (3) |
Appendix |
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349 | (11) |
Notes |
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360 | (73) |
Suggested Readings |
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433 | (15) |
Index |
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448 | |