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Change and Continuity in the 2012 and 2014 Elections [Minkštas viršelis]

  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 488 pages, aukštis x plotis: 228x152 mm, weight: 660 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 02-Jul-2015
  • Leidėjas: CQ Press
  • ISBN-10: 1506305873
  • ISBN-13: 9781506305875
  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 488 pages, aukštis x plotis: 228x152 mm, weight: 660 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 02-Jul-2015
  • Leidėjas: CQ Press
  • ISBN-10: 1506305873
  • ISBN-13: 9781506305875
Since its first edition in 1982, Change and Continuity has been known for offering the best analysis and explanation of voting behavior in recent elections and setting those results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. Year after year, the top-notch author team of Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, Brad T. Gomez, and David W. Rohde meticulously and accessibly explains and displays the National Election Studies data and analyzes its impact while making use of the most recent scholarship. This edition covers the 2012 presidential and congressional elections and includes an all-new chapter on the 2014 mid-term election. It examines the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affected voting behavior, and offers conclusions about what the results mean for the future of American politics.

Recenzijos

"No course on campaigns, elections, or voting is complete without the recent installment in the Change and Continuity series. The latest update demystifies the complexities of the important 2012 elections and the pivotal 2014 midterms in a penetrating and comprehensive fashion and situates the cycle in historical context masterfully. If there is only one book students interested in national elections read, it should be this one." -- Costas Panagopoulos "A new edition of Change and Continuity is like manna from heaven for students of American national elections. The latest in the series skillfully places the 2012 election in historical context while providing an intelligent and judicious review of scholarly debates about participation, partisanship, and issue voting. The new analysis of the dramatic 2014 midterms and their implications for the future is especially helpful. A gem for teaching." -- Jack Citrin "Once again, Paul Abramson and his team have provided us with a lucid and detailed account of the most recent national elections. Placing this account within the broader conceptual context of U.S. voting behavior, they provide the reader with a thorough, general background in U.S. election studies valuable for use in several different courses. Most importantly for me, this text, as always, lays out a methodological blueprint for those students wishing to understand how we go about studying voting behavior and those who wish to analyze election data themselves." -- Peter Galderisi "I use Change and Continuity in my classes because students read it. It is accessible, current, and informative. The chapters provide a value-added use in the classroom because it is not journalistic. Rather the chapters analyze current subjects through the lens of political science, providing the intellectual framework that will help readers understand the politics that they are seeing on TV or reading about in newspapers." -- Wayne Steger "After each election, I look forward to the new edition of Change and Continuity. I know that the new edition will put the current election in the appropriate context. I know that my students will have a greater appreciation of the factors that underlie electoral behavior. Change and Continuity is both intellectually rigorous and accessible. I cant imagine teaching the elections class without using this book." -- Brad Lockerbie "No text matches Change and Continuity in providing an all-inclusive interpretation of election outcomes and for placing the results of individual elections in historical context. The authors use national survey data to disentangle the contributions of issues, candidates, parties, and political and economic conditions to voters decisions. Their long-term perspective distinguishes the routine from the idiosyncratic and identifies secular trends and changes in voting behavior. Ill keep assigning the book in my classes as long as they keep writing it."  -- Dennis Chong

Tables and Figures viii
Preface xiii
About the Authors xvii
Introduction
1(15)
Change and Continuity
4(5)
Voters and the Act of Voting
9(1)
Survey Research Sampling
10(2)
Plan of the Book
12(4)
Part I: The 2012 Presidential Election
1 The Nomination Struggle
16(24)
Who Ran
18(1)
The Rules of the Nomination System
19(10)
The Dynamics of Multicandidate Campaigns
29(11)
2 The General Election Campaign
40(18)
The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices
40(2)
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves
42(3)
From the Conventions to the Debates
45(4)
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout
49(5)
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?
54(4)
3 The Election Results
58(25)
The Election Rules
64(3)
The Pattern of Results
67(4)
State-by-State Results
71(4)
Electoral Change in the Postwar South
75(4)
The Electoral Vote Balance
79(4)
Part II: Voting Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election
4 Who Voted?
83(33)
Voter Turnout, 1789-1916
85(3)
Voter Turnout, 1920-2012
88(5)
Voter Turnout among Social Groups
93(10)
Changes in Turnout after 1960
103(5)
Election-Specific Factors
108(2)
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
110(6)
5 Social Forces and the Vote
116(30)
How Social Groups Voted in 2012
117(10)
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years
127(16)
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down
143(3)
6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
146(24)
Attitudes toward the Candidates
147(3)
Prospective Evaluations
150(5)
Issue Positions and Perceptions
155(3)
Issue Voting Criteria
158(2)
Apparent Issue Voting in 2012
160(9)
Conclusion
169(1)
7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
170(23)
What Is Retrospective Voting?
171(4)
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems
175(2)
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
177(6)
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
183(2)
Evaluations of the Incumbent
185(3)
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations
188(3)
Conclusion
191(2)
8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
193(32)
Party Identification: The Original View
194(1)
Party Identification: An Alternative View
195(1)
Party Identification in the Electorate
196(10)
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008 and 2012
206(1)
Party Identification and the Vote
207(3)
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations
210(11)
Conclusion
221(4)
Part III: The 2012 and 2014 Congressional Elections
9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2012
225(43)
Election Outcomes in 2012
226(13)
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes
239(11)
The 2012 Elections: The Impact on Congress
250(7)
The 2014 Elections and Beyond
257(11)
10 The Congressional Electorate in 2012
268(13)
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote
268(3)
Issues and the Congressional Vote
271(1)
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote
272(2)
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote
274(2)
The Congressional Vote as Referendum
276(2)
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote
278(2)
Conclusion
280(1)
11 The 2014 Congressional Elections
281(36)
The Pattern of Outcomes
281(3)
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results
284(3)
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections
287(17)
The 2014 Elections: The Impact on Congress
304(6)
The 2016 Elections and Beyond
310(7)
Part IV: The 2012 and 2014 Elections in Perspective
12 The 2012 and 2014 Elections and the Future of American Politics
317(19)
Are Midterm Elections Predictive?
321(6)
Prospects for the Democrats ,
327(4)
Prospects for the Republicans
331(5)
13 The Dynamics of American Elections
336(13)
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System
336(3)
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization
339(3)
Change and Continuity in Turnout
342(2)
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship
344(1)
Changes in the Partisan Electorate
345(1)
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress
346(3)
Appendix 349(11)
Notes 360(73)
Suggested Readings 433(15)
Index 448
Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University. He is coauthor of ValueChange in Global Perspective (1995) and author of Political Attitudes in America (1983), The Political Socialization of Black Americans (1977), and Generational Change in American Politics (1975).  

John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is author of Why Parties: A Second Look (2011), coeditor of Positive Changes in Political Science (2007), and author of Why Parties (1995) and Before the Convention (1980). He is a past president of both the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association and is serving as president of the American Political Science Association. In 2001 he was elected a fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Brad T. Gomez is associate professor of political science at Florida State University. His research interests focus on voting behavior and public opinion with a particular interest in how citizens attribute responsibility for socio-political events. His published work appears in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and other journals and edited volumes.





David W. Rohde is Ernestine Friedl Professor of Political Science and director of the Political Institutions and Public Choice Program at Duke University. He is coeditor of Why Not Parties? (2008), author of Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House (1991), coeditor of Home Style and Washington Work (1989), and coauthor of Supreme Court Decision Making (1976).