|
|
viii | |
About the Authors |
|
xii | |
Preface |
|
xiv | |
Introduction |
|
1 | (14) |
|
|
4 | (5) |
|
Voters and the Act of Voting |
|
|
9 | (1) |
|
|
10 | (2) |
|
|
12 | (3) |
|
1 The Nomination Struggle |
|
|
15 | (24) |
|
|
17 | (2) |
|
The Rules of the Nomination System |
|
|
19 | (10) |
|
The Dynamics of Multicandidate Campaigns |
|
|
29 | (10) |
|
2 The General Election Campaign |
|
|
39 | (18) |
|
The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices |
|
|
39 | (2) |
|
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves |
|
|
41 | (3) |
|
From the Conventions to the Debates |
|
|
44 | (4) |
|
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout |
|
|
48 | (5) |
|
Did the Campaign Make a Difference? |
|
|
53 | (4) |
|
|
57 | (25) |
|
|
63 | (3) |
|
|
66 | (4) |
|
|
70 | (5) |
|
Electoral Change in the Postwar South |
|
|
75 | (3) |
|
The Electoral Vote Balance |
|
|
78 | (4) |
|
|
82 | (33) |
|
Voter Turnout, 1789--1916 |
|
|
84 | (3) |
|
Voter Turnout, 1920--2012 |
|
|
87 | (5) |
|
Voter Turnout among Social Groups |
|
|
92 | (10) |
|
Changes in Turnout after 1960 |
|
|
102 | (5) |
|
Election-Specific Factors |
|
|
107 | (2) |
|
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? |
|
|
109 | (6) |
|
5 Social Forces and the Vote |
|
|
115 | (30) |
|
How Social Groups Voted in 2012 |
|
|
116 | (10) |
|
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years |
|
|
126 | (16) |
|
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down |
|
|
142 | (3) |
|
6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote |
|
|
145 | (24) |
|
Attitudes toward the Candidates |
|
|
146 | (4) |
|
|
150 | (4) |
|
Issue Positions and Perceptions |
|
|
154 | (3) |
|
|
157 | (3) |
|
Apparent Issue Voting in 2012 |
|
|
160 | (8) |
|
|
168 | (1) |
|
7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice |
|
|
169 | (23) |
|
What Is Retrospective Voting? |
|
|
170 | (4) |
|
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems |
|
|
174 | (2) |
|
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
|
|
176 | (6) |
|
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
|
|
182 | (2) |
|
Evaluations of the Incumbent |
|
|
184 | (3) |
|
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations |
|
|
187 | (3) |
|
|
190 | (2) |
|
8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote |
|
|
192 | (32) |
|
Party Identification: The Original View |
|
|
193 | (1) |
|
Party Identification: An Alternative View |
|
|
194 | (2) |
|
Party Identification in the Electorate |
|
|
196 | (9) |
|
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008 and 2012 |
|
|
205 | (1) |
|
Party Identification and the Vote |
|
|
206 | (3) |
|
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations |
|
|
209 | (11) |
|
|
220 | (4) |
|
9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2012 |
|
|
224 | |
|
Election Outcomes in 2012 |
|
|
225 | (13) |
|
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes |
|
|
238 | (10) |
|
The 2012 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
|
|
248 | (8) |
|
The 2014 Elections and Beyond |
|
|
256 | |