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Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections [Minkštas viršelis]

  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 448 pages, aukštis x plotis: 228x152 mm, weight: 600 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 20-Jul-2018
  • Leidėjas: CQ Press
  • ISBN-10: 1544320256
  • ISBN-13: 9781544320250
  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 448 pages, aukštis x plotis: 228x152 mm, weight: 600 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 20-Jul-2018
  • Leidėjas: CQ Press
  • ISBN-10: 1544320256
  • ISBN-13: 9781544320250
Drawing on surveys and other evidence and continuing the series of books that began with study of the 1980 elections, this text examines the 2016 US presidential and congressional elections and analyzes individual-level voting behavior and the factors that lead citizens to vote and impacted how they voted, from sociological, social-psychological, and rational choice perspectives. It details the presidential primaries, the general election campaign, the election results, the decision whether to vote, how social forces influenced the vote, attitudes towards the candidates and issues, how retrospective evaluations of presidential and government performance influenced voting decisions, the impact of party loyalties, the House and Senate elections, the pattern of congressional outcomes, how voters made congressional voting decisions, and the 2016 elections in historical context. Annotation ©2018 Ringgold, Inc., Portland, OR (protoview.com)

Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Trump’s victory in 2016, and how do they differ from Republican coalitions of the past? Does his victory signal a long-term positive trajectory for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections?

Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections attempts to answer those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent election, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. New co-author Jamie L. Carson brings years of congressional and election research experience to help this top-notch author team meticulously explain the latest National Election Studies data and discuss its importance and impact. You will critically analyze a variety of variables such as the presidential and congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. You will also walk away with a better understanding of this groundbreaking election and what those results mean for the future of American politics.

 


Recenzijos

"A serious book that looks at theories of voting behavior in a comprehensive and comprehensible manner." -- Brad Lockerbie "Data-driven, thorough, and rigorous. Change and Continuity is in-depth and wide-ranging in its coverage, making it ideal for an introductory American politics course." -- Abbie Erler

Tables and Figures
ix
Preface xv
About the Authors xix
Introduction 1(18)
Change and Continuity
5(4)
Voters and the Act of Voting
9(2)
Survey Research Sampling
11(1)
Plan of the Book
12(7)
PART I THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Chapter 1 The Nomination Struggle
19(28)
Who Ran
20(4)
The Rules of the Nomination System
24(11)
Strategy and the Candidates' Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations
35(12)
Chapter 2 The General Election Campaign
47(22)
The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices
47(2)
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves
49(4)
From the Conventions to the Debates
53(7)
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout
60(5)
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?
65(4)
Chapter 3 The Election Results
69(30)
The Election Rules
76(4)
The Pattern of Results
80(5)
State-by-State Results
85(5)
Electoral Change in the Postwar South
90(3)
The Electoral Vote Balance
93(6)
PART II VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
CHapter 4 Who Voted?
99(36)
Voter Turnout, 1789-1916
102(3)
Voter Turnout, 1920-2016
105(7)
Voter Turnout among Social Groups
112(9)
Changes in Turnout after 1960
121(4)
Election-Specific Factors
125(3)
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
128(7)
Chapter 5 Social Forces and the Vote
135(32)
How Social Groups Voted in 2016
137(9)
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years
146(18)
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down
164(3)
Chapter 6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
167(26)
Attitudes toward the Candidates
168(4)
Prospective Evaluations
172(6)
Issue Positions and Perceptions
178(4)
Issue Voting Criteria
182(1)
Apparent Issue Voting in 2016
183(9)
Conclusion
192(1)
Chapter 7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
193(20)
What Is Retrospective Voting?
194(3)
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems
197(2)
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
199(5)
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
204(1)
Evaluations of the Incumbent
205(2)
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations
207(4)
Conclusion
211(2)
Chapter 8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
213(32)
Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View
214(1)
Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: A Second View
215(1)
Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis?
216(1)
Party Identification in the Electorate
217(6)
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016
223(1)
Party Identification and the Vote
224(4)
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations
228(10)
Conclusion
238(7)
PART III THE 2016 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
Chapter 9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2016
245(46)
Election Outcomes in 2016
246(12)
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes
258(11)
The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress
269(9)
The 2018 Elections and Beyond
278(13)
Chapter 10 The Congressional Electorate in 2016
291(18)
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote
291(3)
Issues and the Congressional Vote
294(1)
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote
295(1)
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote
296(3)
The Congressional Vote as Referendum
299(3)
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote
302(2)
Conclusion
304(5)
PART IV THE 2016 ELECTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE
Chapter 11 The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics
309(12)
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System
309(3)
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization
312(3)
Change and Continuity in Turnout
315(1)
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship
316(1)
Changes in the Partisan Electorate
317(1)
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress
318(3)
Appendix 321(20)
Notes 341(66)
Index 407
John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is author of Why Parties: A Second Look (2011), coeditor of Positive Changes in Political Science (2007), and author of Why Parties (1995) and Before the Convention (1980). He is a past president of both the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association and is serving as president of the American Political Science Association. In 2001 he was elected a fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Brad T. Gomez is associate professor of political science at Florida State University. His research interests focus on voting behavior and public opinion with a particular interest in how citizens attribute responsibility for socio-political events. His published work appears in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and other journals and edited volumes.





David W. Rohde is Ernestine Friedl Professor of Political Science and director of the Political Institutions and Public Choice Program at Duke University. He is coeditor of Why Not Parties? (2008), author of Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House (1991), coeditor of Home Style and Washington Work (1989), and coauthor of Supreme Court Decision Making (1976).