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ix | |
Preface |
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xv | |
About the Authors |
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xix | |
Introduction |
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1 | (18) |
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5 | (4) |
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Voters and the Act of Voting |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (1) |
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12 | (7) |
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PART I THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION |
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Chapter 1 The Nomination Struggle |
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19 | (28) |
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20 | (4) |
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The Rules of the Nomination System |
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24 | (11) |
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Strategy and the Candidates' Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations |
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35 | (12) |
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Chapter 2 The General Election Campaign |
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47 | (22) |
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The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices |
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47 | (2) |
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Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves |
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49 | (4) |
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From the Conventions to the Debates |
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53 | (7) |
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The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout |
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60 | (5) |
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Did the Campaign Make a Difference? |
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65 | (4) |
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Chapter 3 The Election Results |
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69 | (30) |
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76 | (4) |
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80 | (5) |
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85 | (5) |
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Electoral Change in the Postwar South |
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90 | (3) |
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The Electoral Vote Balance |
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93 | (6) |
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PART II VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION |
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99 | (36) |
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102 | (3) |
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105 | (7) |
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Voter Turnout among Social Groups |
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112 | (9) |
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Changes in Turnout after 1960 |
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121 | (4) |
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Election-Specific Factors |
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125 | (3) |
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Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? |
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128 | (7) |
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Chapter 5 Social Forces and the Vote |
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135 | (32) |
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How Social Groups Voted in 2016 |
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137 | (9) |
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How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years |
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146 | (18) |
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Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down |
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164 | (3) |
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Chapter 6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote |
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167 | (26) |
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Attitudes toward the Candidates |
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168 | (4) |
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172 | (6) |
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Issue Positions and Perceptions |
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178 | (4) |
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182 | (1) |
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Apparent Issue Voting in 2016 |
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183 | (9) |
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192 | (1) |
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Chapter 7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice |
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193 | (20) |
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What Is Retrospective Voting? |
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194 | (3) |
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Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems |
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197 | (2) |
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Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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199 | (5) |
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Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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204 | (1) |
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Evaluations of the Incumbent |
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205 | (2) |
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The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations |
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207 | (4) |
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211 | (2) |
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Chapter 8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote |
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213 | (32) |
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Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View |
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214 | (1) |
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Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: A Second View |
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215 | (1) |
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Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis? |
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216 | (1) |
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Party Identification in the Electorate |
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217 | (6) |
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Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016 |
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223 | (1) |
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Party Identification and the Vote |
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224 | (4) |
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Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations |
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228 | (10) |
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238 | (7) |
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PART III THE 2016 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS |
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Chapter 9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2016 |
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245 | (46) |
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Election Outcomes in 2016 |
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246 | (12) |
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Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes |
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258 | (11) |
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The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
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269 | (9) |
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The 2018 Elections and Beyond |
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278 | (13) |
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Chapter 10 The Congressional Electorate in 2016 |
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291 | (18) |
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Social Forces and the Congressional Vote |
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291 | (3) |
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Issues and the Congressional Vote |
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294 | (1) |
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Party Identification and the Congressional Vote |
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295 | (1) |
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Incumbency and the Congressional Vote |
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296 | (3) |
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The Congressional Vote as Referendum |
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299 | (3) |
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Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote |
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302 | (2) |
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304 | (5) |
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PART IV THE 2016 ELECTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE |
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Chapter 11 The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics |
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309 | (12) |
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The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System |
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309 | (3) |
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The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization |
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312 | (3) |
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Change and Continuity in Turnout |
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315 | (1) |
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Continuities in Electoral Partisanship |
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316 | (1) |
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Changes in the Partisan Electorate |
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317 | (1) |
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Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress |
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318 | (3) |
Appendix |
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321 | (20) |
Notes |
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341 | (66) |
Index |
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407 | |