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El. knyga: Currency Wars: Offense and Defense through Systemic Thinking

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  • Formatas: EPUB+DRM
  • Serija: Contemporary Systems Thinking
  • Išleidimo metai: 25-Nov-2017
  • Leidėjas: Springer International Publishing AG
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9783319677651
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Currency Wars: Offense and Defense through Systemic ThinkingDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: EPUB+DRM
  • Serija: Contemporary Systems Thinking
  • Išleidimo metai: 25-Nov-2017
  • Leidėjas: Springer International Publishing AG
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9783319677651
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This book uses systemic thinking and applies it to the study of financial crises. It systematically presents how the systemic yoyo model, its thinking logic, and its methodology can be employed as a common playground and intuition to the study of money, international finance, and economic reforms. This book establishes theoretical backings for why some of the most employed interferences of the market and empirical experiences actually work. It has become urgent for economists and policy makers to understand how international speculative capital affects the economic security of various nations. By looking at the issues of monetary movement around the world, this book shows that there are clearly visible patterns behind the flows of capital, and that there are a uniform language and logic of reasoning that can be powerfully employed in the studies of international finance As shown in this book, many of the conclusions drawn on the basis of these visible patterns, language, and logic of thinking can be practically applied to produce tangible economic benefits.

Currency Wars: Offense and Defense through Systemic Thinking is divided into six parts. The first part addresses issues related to systemic modeling of economic entities and processes and explains how a few policy changes can adjust the performance of the extremely complex economy. Part II of the book investigates the problem of how instabilities lead to opportunities for currency attacks, the positive and negative effects of foreign capital, and how international capital flows can cause disturbances of various degrees on a nation’s economic security. Part III examines how a currency war is initiated, why currency conflicts and wars are inevitable, and a specific way of how currency attacks can take place. In Part IV, the book shows how one nation can potential defend itself by manipulating exchange rate of its currency, how the nation under siege can protect itself against financial attacks by using strategies based on the technique of feedback, and develops a more general approach of self-defense. Part V focuses on issues related to the cleanup of the disastrous aftermath of currency attacks through using policies and reforms. Finally the book concludes in Part VI as it analyzes specific real-life cases and addresses the ultimate problem of whether or not currency wars can be avoided all together.
1 Unconscious, Helpless, and Orchestrated Financial Crises
1(14)
1.1 Introduction
2(1)
1.2 A Systemic Association
3(3)
1.3 Currency Wars
6(2)
1.4 Self-Defense
8(4)
1.4.1 The Problem of Economic Security
8(1)
1.4.2 Evaluate the State of Economic Performance
9(1)
1.4.3 Introduce Policy Responses
10(2)
1.5 How This Special Volume Is Organized
12(3)
2 Systems Research and the Systemic Yoyo Model
15(36)
2.1 Systems Science and the Second Dimension of Knowledge
16(5)
2.1.1 Systems Science and Its Importance
16(1)
2.1.2 A Two-Dimensional Spectrum of Knowledge
16(1)
2.1.3 The Systemic Yoyo Model
17(4)
2.2 Properties of Systemic Yoyos
21(5)
2.2.1 The Field Structure
21(2)
2.2.2 The Quark Structure of Systemic Yoyos
23(3)
2.3 Laws on State of Motion
26(9)
2.3.1 The First Law on State of Motion
27(1)
2.3.2 The Second Law on State of Motion
28(2)
2.3.3 The 3rd and 4th Laws on State of Motion
30(2)
2.3.4 Validity of Figurative Analysis
32(3)
2.4 Theoretical Justifications
35(5)
2.4.1 Blown-Ups: Moments of Transition in Evolutions
35(1)
2.4.2 Mathematical Properties of Blown-Ups
36(1)
2.4.3 The Problem of Quantitative Infinity
36(2)
2.4.4 Equal Quantitative Effects
38(2)
2.5 Empirical Justifications
40(11)
2.5.1 Bjerknes' Circulation Theorem
41(1)
2.5.2 Conservation of Informational Infrastructure
42(4)
2.5.3 Silent Human Communications
46(5)
Part I Systemic Modeling of Economic Entities and Processes
3 Systemic Representation of Economic Organizations
51(22)
3.1 Introduction
52(1)
3.2 The Relevant Systemic Intuition
53(5)
3.3 Investments in Innovative Competitiveness
58(4)
3.4 The Development Problem of an Economy
62(2)
3.5 Consistency Between Fiscal/Monetary Policies and the Performance of the Economy
64(5)
3.6 The Storage System of Manufactured Products
69(1)
3.7 Changes in the State of an Economic System
70(2)
3.8 Some Concluding Remarks
72(1)
4 Order Reduction of Dynamic Monetary Systems
73(36)
4.1 Introduction
74(2)
4.2 The Control-Theory Model for Money Movement
76(4)
4.3 Needs for Reducing the Dimensionality of the Capital Movement Model
80(3)
4.4 Existence of Reduced Order Systems for Currency Movement
83(3)
4.5 Method for Order Reduction of Currency Movement Systems
86(3)
4.6 Error Analysis for Reduced Order Currency Movement Model
89(2)
4.7 Relationship Between the Transfer Functions of the Original and Reduced Order Models
91(2)
4.8 Observability and Controllability of Reduced Order Systems
93(5)
4.9 Selecting the Order Reduction Vector q
98(4)
4.10 An Example of Application
102(5)
4.11 Conclusions
107(2)
5 Estimating the State of Economy Through Observers
109(20)
5.1 Introduction
110(4)
5.2 Design of Observers
114(2)
5.3 The Problem and a Fundamental Theorem
116(3)
5.4 Method of Observer Design
119(3)
5.5 Observers of Lower Order
122(5)
5.6 Location Determination of Observer's Poles
127(1)
5.7 Some Concluding Remarks
127(2)
6 Estimating the State of Economy Through Controllers
129(22)
6.1 Introduction
130(1)
6.2 State Feedback Controllers with Observers Attached
130(4)
6.2.1 Separation of State Feedback Controller's Poles
130(2)
6.2.2 Transfer Function Matrix of State Feedback Controller with an Observer Attached
132(1)
6.2.3 Joint Design of a Feedback Controller and Observer
133(1)
6.3 Design of Dynamic Compensators
134(5)
6.4 Design of Multiple Variable PD Controllers
139(7)
6.5 Conclusion
146(5)
Part II Instability: The Brewing of Currency Wars
7 Some Major Financial Crises in History: 1929-2008
151(30)
7.1 The Credit Crunch of 1966
152(2)
7.2 The Year 1970: Penn Central
154(3)
7.3 The Year 1974: Franklin National
157(3)
7.4 The Silver Crisis of 1980
160(3)
7.5 The 1982 Crisis
163(5)
7.5.1 Thrift Institutions
164(1)
7.5.2 Drysdale Government Securities, Inc
165(1)
7.5.3 Penn Square Bank
166(1)
7.5.4 Mexico
167(1)
7.6 The 1980s: Emerging Markets Debt Default Crises
168(2)
7.7 Early 1990s: Advanced Countries Crises
170(3)
7.8 The Mid-1990s: Mexican Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis
173(3)
7.9 Late 2000s: The Great Recession of 2008
176(3)
7.10 Some Remarks
179(2)
8 Effects of Foreign Capital on Economic Security
181(16)
8.1 Introduction
182(2)
8.2 Positive Effects of Foreign Capital on Economic Security
184(5)
8.3 Negative Effects of Foreign Capital on Economic Security
189(6)
8.4 Conclusion
195(2)
9 Economic Security Under Disturbances of Foreign Capital
197(22)
9.1 Introduction
198(1)
9.2 A Model for Monitoring Dynamic Foreign Capital Within an Economic System
198(7)
9.3 Estimate the State of Motion of Foreign Capital
205(3)
9.4 Estimate the Initial State of Foreign Capital's Movement
208(2)
9.5 How Disturbances of Foreign Capital Affect Economic Security
210(5)
9.6 Concluding Remarks
215(4)
Part III Observability: Initiating Currency Wars
10 Inevitability of Currency Wars
219(26)
10.1 Interactions of Currency in the Globalizing Economy
220(1)
10.2 Controllability and Observability of Economic Systems
221(8)
10.2.1 The Controllability of an Economic System
222(3)
10.2.2 The Observability of an Economic System
225(3)
10.2.3 Duality Between Controllability and Observability
228(1)
10.3 Structural Forms of Economic Systems' Controllability and Observability
229(11)
10.3.1 Controllable Subspaces
230(3)
10.3.2 Separation of the Controllable Part
233(4)
10.3.3 The Not-Observable Subspace
237(1)
10.3.4 Separation of the Observable Part
238(2)
10.4 Decomposition of Constant Coefficient Linear Economic Systems
240(3)
10.5 Some Final Remarks
243(2)
11 Flashing with Swords: How Currency Wars Take Place
245(22)
11.1 Introduction
245(2)
11.2 The Basic Concepts and Systemic Intuition
247(3)
11.3 Recent Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises
250(8)
11.4 One Possible Form of Currency Wars
258(5)
11.5 Some Final Remarks
263(4)
Part IV Strategies of Self Defense
12 Self-Defense Through Manipulating Exchange Rate
267(18)
12.1 Introduction
267(1)
12.2 A Model for Categorized Purchasing Power
268(2)
12.3 The Functional Relationship Between P and (D--S)
270(6)
12.4 Separating Economic Categories Using Feedback Component Systems
276(4)
12.5 A Strategy for National Defense
280(3)
12.6 A Few Final Words
283(2)
13 Self-Defense Based on Feedback Mechanism
285(22)
13.1 Introduction
286(3)
13.2 Formulation of the Problem
289(1)
13.3 Design of Feedback Control with Pure Gain
290(2)
13.4 The Lemma
292(2)
13.5 Design of Linear Multivariate Regulator
294(5)
13.5.1 Design of Pure Gain Feedback Controllers
294(1)
13.5.2 Design of Linear Multivariable Regulator
295(4)
13.6 Application in the Control of Production Inventory System
299(6)
13.6.1 The Problem
299(2)
13.6.2 The Solution
301(1)
13.6.3 Solving the Control Problem of Production Inventory System
302(3)
13.7 Conclusion
305(2)
14 Another Plan of Self-Protection
307(20)
14.1 Introduction
308(6)
14.1.1 Currency War
308(1)
14.1.2 Literature Review
309(5)
14.2 The Main Result
314(2)
14.3 A Case Analysis
316(3)
14.4 Implications of the Established Theory
319(5)
14.5 Some Final Remarks
324(3)
Part V Clean Up Disastrous Aftermath Through Policies and Reforms
15 Design Economic Policies Based on Various Performance Indicators
327(22)
15.1 Introduction
328(2)
15.2 Economic Indicator Feedback and Performance Feedback
330(7)
15.2.1 Formulation of the Feedback Problem
330(1)
15.2.2 Classification of Feedbacks
331(6)
15.3 Design Feedback Control by Using Lyapunov Method
337(8)
15.3.1 Lyapunov Stability
340(3)
15.3.2 Feedback Design Based on Lyapunov Second Method
343(2)
15.3.3 An Iterative Method for Solving Lyapunov Equations
345(1)
15.4 Corresponding Results for Economies Measured with Discrete Time
345(2)
15.5 Conclusion
347(2)
16 Design Economic Policies that Do Not Create Bumpy Recovery
349(24)
16.1 Introduction
350(4)
16.2 Pole Placement
354(16)
16.2.1 Pole Placement by Using State Feedback
354(10)
16.2.2 An Improvement on How to Place Poles
364(1)
16.2.3 Pole Placement Through Output Feedback
365(2)
16.2.4 Determination of Pole Locations
367(3)
16.3 The Problem of Eigenstructure Assignment
370(1)
16.4 Conclusion
371(2)
17 The Problem of Optimal Macroeconomic Regulations
373(16)
17.1 Introduction
374(1)
17.2 The Problem of Optimal Regulation
375(2)
17.3 Several Typical Forms of Optimal Regulation of Economic Systems
377(5)
17.4 Empirical Cases of Optimal Regulation Problems
382(6)
17.5 Some Final Words
388(1)
18 Steepest Optimal Policies for Regulating Capital Flows and Exchange Rates
389(20)
18.1 Introduction
390(1)
18.2 Three Different Combinations of the Impossible Trinity
391(5)
18.2.1 The British Pound Crisis in 1992
393(1)
18.2.2 Asian Financial Crises in 1997
394(1)
18.2.3 Russia's "Foreign Exchange Corridor" of 1998
395(1)
18.3 An Elementary Steepest Optimal Regulation Model
396(2)
18.4 Solving the Optimal Regulation Model
398(3)
18.5 A Symbolic Expression for the Steepest Reform Path
401(3)
18.6 Systemically Understanding the Solution of the Steepest Optimal Regulation Problem
404(1)
18.7 Some Final Words
405(4)
19 The Problem of Optimal Path for Financial Reform
409(30)
19.1 Introduction
410(1)
19.2 The Problem to Be Addressed
410(11)
19.3 The Model and Solution
421(5)
19.4 The Problem of Fixed Amount of Money
426(10)
19.4.1 The Model
430(1)
19.4.2 The Solution
431(2)
19.4.3 A Revisit to the Problem of Maximum Area
433(3)
19.5 Some Final Words
436(3)
Part VI Specific Case Analyses
20 Renminbi: A New Reserve Currency
439(36)
20.1 Strongly Fortified: Strengthen RMB Onshore Market
440(8)
20.2 Going Abroad: Expand the RMB Offshore Market
448(10)
20.3 Island Hopping Campaign: Currencies Swaps
458(4)
20.4 Without Match in Asia: Regionalization and Internationalization
462(11)
20.4.1 Internationalization of RMB, Why?
463(1)
20.4.2 Implementation in the Short Run
463(2)
20.4.3 A Long-Term Outlook
465(1)
20.4.4 RMB Undervaluation and China's Growth
466(1)
20.4.5 Who Will Gain from an RMB Revaluation?
467(2)
20.4.6 Will Other Asian Currencies Follow China's RMB Revaluation?
469(1)
20.4.7 RMB's Increasing Influence in Asia
470(3)
20.5 Some Final Words
473(2)
21 A General Theory of International Money
475(26)
21.1 The Theory
479(6)
21.1.1 A Descriptive Presentation of the Theory
480(5)
21.1.2 Consequences of the Theory
485(1)
21.2 Where Will Euro Go?
485(14)
21.2.1 An Offspring of Noble Ancestors: Franc and Mark
486(7)
21.2.2 Born in a Wrong Time: The European Sovereign Debt Crisis
493(4)
21.2.3 The Sun Sets: Flowers Fall Off Helplessly
497(2)
21.3 Some Concluding Remarks
499(2)
22 Where Will the US Dollar Go?
501(26)
22.1 Globalization and Need for International Currency
503(3)
22.2 The Data Employed
506(2)
22.3 New Insights Revealed
508(7)
22.4 Empirical Results Implied by the Data
515(3)
22.5 Robustness of the Results
518(4)
22.6 How the Dollar Became the Leading International Currency
522(1)
22.7 Where Will the US Dollar Go?
523(2)
22.8 Some Final Remarks
525(2)
23 Where Will Chinese Yuan Go?
527(40)
23.1 The Growth of Renminbi from a Humble Beginning
528(1)
23.2 Evolution and Development of Renminbi
529(7)
23.3 Offshore Financial Centers of Renminbi
536(16)
23.3.1 Debates on Emerging Financial Centers in China
538(2)
23.3.2 Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in the Global Arena
540(11)
23.3.3 In Summary
551(1)
23.4 The Pace of Regionalizing Renminbi
552(14)
23.4.1 Preface
553(1)
23.4.2 The Background
554(1)
23.4.3 Principles
555(1)
23.4.4 Framework
555(1)
23.4.5 Cooperation Priorities
556(5)
23.4.6 Cooperation Mechanisms
561(1)
23.4.7 China's Regions in Pursuing Opening-Up
562(2)
23.4.8 China in Action
564(1)
23.4.9 Embracing a Brighter Future Together
565(1)
23.5 Some Final Words
566(1)
24 Avoiding Currency Wars with a Single World Currency?
567(6)
24.1 A Systemic Evolutionary Model of World Currencies
567(2)
24.2 Is a Unified World Currency Possible?
569(1)
24.3 Regional Single Currencies
570(1)
24.4 Some Final Remarks
571(2)
Bibliography 573(26)
Index 599
Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest holds all his educational degrees in pure mathematics and had one-year post-doctoral experience in statistics at Carnegie Mellon University. He had been a guest professor of economics, finance, and systems science at several major universities in China, including Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. And currently, he is a professor of mathematics at Slippery Rock University, Pennsylvania, and the president of the International Institute for General Systems Studies, Inc., Pennsylvania. He serves either currently or in the past on the editorial boards of eleven professional journals, including Kybernetes: the International Journal of Systems, Cybernetics and Management Science, Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, International Journal of General Systems, etc. As of the end of 2015, he has published well over 300 research papers and 45 monographs and special topic volumes. Some of these monographs and volumes were published by such prestigious publishers as Springer, World Scientific, Kluwer Academic, Academic Press, etc. Over the years, Dr. Yi Lins scientific achievements have been recognized by various professional organizations and academic publishers. In 2001, he was inducted into the Honorary Fellowship of the World Organization of Systems and Cybernetics. His research interests are wide ranging, covering areas like economics, finance, management, marketing, data analysis, predictions, mathematics, systems research and applications, philosophy of science, etc.  Yirong Ying is professor of finance, and is associate chair of Department of Finance, College of Economics, Shanghai University. He earned his B.S. degree in mathematics in 1982 from Mathematics Department of Northwest University (China) and his Ph.D. degree in mathematics in 2000 from Mathematics Department of Xidian University. In 2002, Dr. Ying did one year of post-doctoral study in finance at Institute of Contemporary Finance, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University.Additionally, Dr. Ying has published more than fifties research papers in various professional journals, such as Kybernetes, Advances in Systems Science and Applications, Annuals of Differential Equations, Journal of Management Science, Journal of System Management, Journal of Changan University, Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics, International Journal of Research in Business and Technology, International Journal of Engineering Mathematics and Computer Sciences. Currently, Professor Ying is a director of Shanghai Financial Engineering Association, System Science, Management Science & System Dynamics Association, and Chinese Enterprise Operations Research Association. He has won numerous Awards of Excellent Research. His works have been financially funded by National Natural Science Foundation (China), the Ministry of Education (China), and various agencies of Shanghai. Zaiwu Gong is professor and specialized in group decision-making, grey systems, and risk analysis. Among his main research achievements, Dr. Gong developed a group consensus decision-making theory based on optimization and a multi-system consensus decision-making theory with decision makers (DMs) intuitive preferences. He proposed a group consensus measure theory with utility constraint by considering DMs behavioral characteristics, and analyzed disaster risk evaluation theorys impact on rapid consensus decision-making by considering the emergency characteristics of disaster risk. Along these lines, he has published over 70 research papers on such well-known international journals as the European Journal of Operational Research and Omega. His applied works are mainly published in a special issue of Natural Hazards and have been incorporated into the Academic Committee Development Plan for the Chinese Meteorological Society of Meteorological Disasters and Services. Professor Gong has also published four monographs by Science Press and Springer Press and one textbook published by Meteorological Press.Dr. Gong has been involved in more than 20 projects funded at the Chinese national and provincial levels and has directed three projects for the National Natural Science Foundation of China. He led one project for the Humanities and Social Science Foundation of the Chinese National Ministry of Education, and four provincial projects that funded special talents (e.g., the Qinglan Project for the Department of Education, Jiangsu Province; the 333 high-level Talent Training Project, Jiangsu Province; and the Six Talent Peak Project, Jiangsu Province). Dr. Gong has been awarded 10 prizes, including the Excellent Paper Award forthe 4th IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, the Outstanding Paper Award from an international publishing company, and the third prize for Excellent Achievement in Philosophy and Social Science in Jiangsu Province. Dr. Gong has supervised 30 graduates (including five international graduates majoring in business administration). Among his students, two were awarded the Excellent Masters Thesis of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, three have won a National Scholarship, and two have won the third prize for the National Graduate Mathematical Modeling Contest.
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