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Dark Side of Valuation, The: Valuing Young, Distressed, and Complex Businesses 3rd edition [Minkštas viršelis]

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  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 800 pages, aukštis x plotis x storis: 44x232x178 mm, weight: 1160 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 29-Jun-2018
  • Leidėjas: Pearson FT Press
  • ISBN-10: 0134854101
  • ISBN-13: 9780134854106
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Dark Side of Valuation, The: Valuing Young, Distressed, and Complex Businesses 3rd editionDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 800 pages, aukštis x plotis x storis: 44x232x178 mm, weight: 1160 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 29-Jun-2018
  • Leidėjas: Pearson FT Press
  • ISBN-10: 0134854101
  • ISBN-13: 9780134854106
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Pastovi nuoroda: https://www.kriso.lt/db/9780134854106.html
Raktažodžiai:

Renowned valuation expert Aswath Damodaran reviews the core tools of valuation, examines today’s most difficult estimation questions and issues, and then systematically addresses the valuation challenges that arise throughout a firm’s lifecycle in The Dark Side of Valuation: Valuing Young, Distressed and Complex Businesses.

 

In this thoroughly revised edition, the author looks at how best to deal with low interest rates, volatile equity risk premiums and political risk in valuation.

 

Readers will gain insight into:

  • Overcoming the temptation to use unrealistic or simplistic valuation methods
  • Risk-free rates, risk premiums and other macroeconomic assumptions
  • Intelligent analysis for angel and early venture capital investing
  • Projecting the impact of regulatory changes
  • The stages of the corporate lifecycle
  • Valuing financial services and commodities companies

Damodaran’s insights will be indispensable to everyone involved in valuation: financial professionals, investors, M&A specialists, and entrepreneurs alike.

Preface to the Third Edition xx
Chapter 1 The Dark Side of Valuation
1(28)
Foundations of Value
1(6)
Intrinsic Valuation
2(1)
Determinants of Value
3(4)
Valuation Across Time
7(2)
Interest Rates
7(1)
Market Risk Premiums
7(1)
The Macro Environment
8(1)
Valuation Across the Life Cycle
9(6)
The Business Life Cycle
9(1)
Early in the Life Cycle: Young Companies
10(2)
The Growth Phase: Growth Companies
12(1)
Maturity (A Mixed Blessing): Mature Firms
13(1)
Winding Down: Dealing with Decline
14(1)
Valuation Across the Business Spectrum
15(8)
Financial Services Firms
15(2)
Cyclical and Commodity Companies
17(1)
Businesses with Intangible Assets
18(2)
Emerging-Market Companies
20(1)
Multibusiness and Global Companies
21(1)
User-, Subscriber-, and Customer-Based Businesses
22(1)
The Dark Side of Valuation Beckons
23(3)
Input Phase
23(1)
Valuation Phase
24(2)
Post-Valuation Phase
26(1)
Conclusion
26(3)
Part I Enlightenment: The Tools
Chapter 2 Intrinsic Valuation
29(46)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
29(34)
The Essence of DCF Valuation
29(1)
Equity Versus Firm Valuation
30(1)
Inputs to a DCF Valuation
31(32)
Variations on DCF Valuation
63(10)
Certainty-Adjusted Cash Flow Models
63(4)
Adjusted Present-Value Models
67(3)
Excess-Return Models
70(3)
What Do Intrinsic Valuation Models Tell Us?
73(1)
Conclusion
74(1)
Chapter 3 Probabilistic Valuation: Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees, and Simulations
75(30)
Scenario Analysis
75(4)
Best Case/Worst Case
76(1)
Multiple Scenario Analysis
76(3)
Decision Trees
79(9)
Steps in Decision Tree Analysis
79(6)
Estimation Issues
85(1)
Risk-Adjusted Value and Decision Trees
86(2)
Simulations
88(13)
Steps in Simulation
89(8)
Use in Decision Making
97(1)
Simulations with Constraints
98(1)
Issues with Using Simulations
99(1)
Risk-Adjusted Value and Simulations
100(1)
An Overall View of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches
101(3)
Comparing the Approaches
102(1)
A Complement to or Replacement for Risk-Adjusted Value
103(1)
Conclusion
104(1)
Chapter 4 Relative Valuation/Pricing
105(28)
What Is Relative Valuation?
105(2)
The Ubiquity of Relative Valuation
107(1)
Reasons for Popularity and Potential Pitfalls
107(2)
Standardized Values and Multiples
109(2)
Earnings Multiples
110(1)
Book Value or Replacement Value Multiples
110(1)
Revenue Multiples
110(1)
Sector-Specific Multiples
111(1)
The Four Basic Steps of Using Multiples
111(20)
Definitional Tests
112(2)
Descriptive Tests
114(6)
Analytical Tests
120(3)
Application Tests
123(8)
Reconciling Relative and Intrinsic Valuations
131(1)
Conclusion
132(1)
Chapter 5 Real Options Valuation
133(36)
The Essence of Real Options
133(2)
Real Options, Risk-Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments
135(2)
Real Options Examples
137(16)
The Option to Delay an Investment
137(7)
The Option to Expand an Investment
144(6)
The Option to Abandon an Investment
150(3)
Caveats for Real Options
153(2)
Conclusion
155(1)
Appendix: Basics of Options and Option Pricing
156(13)
Option Payoffs
156(2)
Determinants of Option Value
158(2)
Option Pricing Models
160(9)
Part II The Dark Side of Macro Inputs
Chapter 6 A Shaky Base: A "Risky" Risk-Free Rate
169(30)
What Is a Risk-Free Asset?
169(1)
Why Do Risk-Free Rates Matter?
170(1)
Estimating a Risk-Free Rate
171(9)
Requirements for an Investment to Be Risk-Free
171(1)
The Purist Solution
172(2)
A Practical Compromise
174(1)
The Currency Effect
175(3)
Real Versus Nominal Risk-Free Rates
178(2)
Issues in Estimating Risk-Free Rates
180(14)
There Are No Long-Term Traded Government Bonds
180(6)
The Government Is Not Default-Free
186(4)
The Risk-Free Rate Might Change Over Time
190(4)
Closing Thoughts on Risk-Free Rates
194(2)
Conclusion
196(1)
Appendix 6.1
196(3)
Chapter 7 Risky Ventures: Assessing the Price of Risk
199(32)
Why Do Risk Premiums Matter?
199(3)
What Are the Determinants of Risk Premiums?
202(2)
Equity Risk Premiums
202(2)
Default Spreads
204(1)
Standard Approaches for Estimating Risk Premiums
204(22)
Equity Risk Premiums
205(2)
Default Spreads
207(1)
Problem Scenarios
208(1)
The Dark Side
209(1)
The Light Side
210(6)
The Dark Side
216(1)
The Light Side
217(6)
The Dark Side
223(1)
The Light Side
224(2)
Conclusion
226(1)
Appendix 7.1
227(4)
Chapter 8 Macro Matters: The Real Economy
231(28)
Growth in the Real Economy
231(8)
Why Does Real Economic Growth Matter?
231(1)
Looking at History
232(5)
The Dark Side
237(1)
The Light Side
238(1)
Expected Inflation
239(9)
Why Does Expected Inflation Matter?
239(2)
Looking at History
241(1)
U.S. Inflation Rate Across Time
241(5)
The Dark Side
246(1)
The Light Side
247(1)
Exchange Rates
248(8)
Why Do Exchange Rates Matter?
248(1)
Looking at History
249(4)
The Dark Side
253(2)
The Light Side
255(1)
Conclusion
256(3)
Part III The Dark Side across the Life Cycle
Chapter 9 Baby Steps: Young and Start-Up Companies
259(64)
Young Companies in the Economy
259(4)
A Life Cycle View of Young Companies
259(2)
Characteristics of Young Companies
261(2)
Valuation Issues
263(5)
Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
264(3)
Relative Valuation
267(1)
The Dark Side
268(7)
The Light Side
275(46)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
275(36)
Relative Valuation
311(6)
Real Options
317(4)
Conclusion
321(2)
Chapter 10 Shooting Stars: Valuing Growth Companies
323(54)
Growth Companies
323(3)
A Life Cycle View of Growth Companies
324(2)
Characteristics of Growth Companies
326(2)
Valuation Issues
328(5)
Intrinsic Value
328(5)
The Dark Side of Valuation
333(10)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
333(7)
Relative Valuation
340(3)
The Light Side of Valuation
343(32)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
344(25)
Relative Valuation
369(6)
Conclusion
375(2)
Chapter 11 The Grown-Ups: Mature Companies
377(54)
Mature Companies in the Economy
377(3)
A Life Cycle View of Mature Companies
378(1)
Characteristics of Mature Companies
379(1)
Valuation Issues
380(4)
Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
380(4)
The Dark Side of Valuation
384(7)
Growth in Mature Companies
384(3)
Acquisition Inconsistencies
387(2)
Unreal Restructuring
389(1)
Debt and Value
390(1)
Relative Valuation
391(1)
The Light Side of Valuation
392(38)
Growth and Acquisitions
392(4)
Changing Management
396(16)
The Expected Value of Control
412(18)
Conclusion
430(1)
Chapter 12 Winding Down: Declining Companies
431(62)
Declining Companies in the Economy
431(2)
A Life Cycle View of Declining Companies
432(1)
Characteristics of Declining Companies
432(1)
Valuation Issues
433(5)
Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
434(2)
From Operating Assets to Equity Value per Share
436(1)
Relative Valuation
437(1)
The Dark Side of Valuation
438(8)
Autopilot Optimism
438(3)
Discount Rate Contortions
441(3)
Divestiture Follies
444(1)
Book Capital
444(1)
Dealing with Distress
445(1)
Relative Valuation
446(1)
The Light Side of Valuation
446(45)
A Framework for Dealing with Decline and Distress
447(2)
Irreversible Decline, Low Distress
449(4)
Reversible Decline, Low Distress
453(1)
Distress
454(37)
Conclusion
491(2)
Part IV The Dark Side Across Company Types
Chapter 13 Ups and Downs: Cyclical and Commodity Companies
493(32)
The Setting
493(3)
Cyclical Companies
494(1)
Commodity Companies
494(1)
Characteristics
495(1)
The Dark Side of Valuation
496(6)
Base Year Fixation
496(2)
The Macro Crystal Ball
498(1)
Macro Point of View (POV) Valuations
499(1)
Selective Normalization
499(1)
False Stability
500(2)
The Light Side of Valuation
502(22)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
502(12)
Relative Valuation
514(3)
The Real Options Argument for Undeveloped Reserves
517(7)
Conclusion
524(1)
Chapter 14 Mark to Market: Valuing Financial Services Companies
525(36)
Financial Services Firms: The Big Picture
525(3)
Characteristics of Financial Services Firms
528(4)
The Regulatory Overlay
529(1)
Differences in Accounting Rules
529(1)
Debt and Equity
530(1)
Estimating Cash Flows Is Difficult
531(1)
The Dark Side of Valuation
532(4)
Debt
532(1)
Cash Flow Substitutes
532(1)
Go with the Flow: Dividends
533(1)
Trusting Book Value
534(1)
Regulation and Risk
535(1)
The Light Side of Valuation
536(24)
Discounted Cash Flow Models
536(16)
Asset-Based Valuation
552(1)
Relative Valuation
553(7)
Conclusion
560(1)
Chapter 15 Invisible Investments: Valuing Firms with Intangible Assets
561(46)
Firms with Intangible Assets
561(6)
Intangible Assets in the Overall Economy
562(1)
Characteristics of Firms with Intangible Assets
563(2)
Valuation Consequences
565(2)
The Dark Side of Valuation
567(5)
Intrinsic Valuation
567(4)
Relative Valuation
571(1)
The Light Side of Valuation
572(32)
Regaining Accounting Consistency
572(14)
Dealing with Equity Options
586(11)
Debt and Cash
597(3)
The Compressed Life Cycle
600(4)
Conclusion
604(3)
Chapter 16 Volatility Rules: Emerging-Market Companies
607(34)
The Role of Emerging-Market Companies
607(3)
Emerging-Market Companies in the Global Economy
608(1)
Why Do Emerging Economies Matter?
608(1)
Characteristics of Emerging-Market Companies
609(1)
The Dark Side of Valuation
610(4)
Currency Mismatches
610(1)
Miscounting and Double-Counting Country Risk
611(1)
Risk Parameters
612(1)
Incorporation Effect
613(1)
Ignoring Missing Information
613(1)
Corporate Governance Mood Swings
614(1)
Post-Valuation Discounts
614(1)
The Light Side of Valuation
614(25)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
614(20)
Relative Valuation
634(5)
Conclusion
639(2)
Chapter 17 Going to Pieces: Disaggregated Value
641(54)
Aggregation versus Disaggregation
641(1)
Multinational Conglomerates
642(6)
Role in the Economy
643(1)
Characteristics
644(2)
Valuation Issues
646(2)
The Dark Side of Valuation
648(3)
Intrinsic Valuation
648(2)
Relative Valuation
650(1)
The Light Side of Valuation
651(26)
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
651(21)
Relative Valuation
672(5)
User/Subscriber/Customer Companies
677(17)
The Rise of the User
677(1)
Valuation Issues
678(1)
The Dark Side of Valuation
679(2)
The Light Side of Valuation
681(13)
Conclusion
694(1)
Chapter 18 The Cynic's Corner: Value versus Price
695(38)
Value versus Price
695(1)
Investing versus Trading
696(3)
The Value Game versus the Pricing Game
696(1)
Investing versus Trading
697(1)
The Dark Side
698(1)
The Light Side
699(1)
The Right Approach
699(3)
Job Description
699(1)
Cui Bono?
700(1)
How Are You Judged?
700(1)
The Dark Side
700(1)
The Light Side
701(1)
Categorizing Investments
702(14)
Cash Flow-Generating Assets
702(5)
Commodities
707(3)
Currencies
710(3)
Collectibles
713(3)
The Questionable Investments
716(15)
Gold (and Other Precious Metals)
716(8)
Crypto Investments
724(5)
Trophy Assets
729(2)
Conclusion
731(2)
Part V The Finale
Chapter 19 The Jedi Way: Vanquishing the Dark Side
733(10)
Enlightening Propositions
733(9)
Proposition 1: Be Steadfast on Principles, Open to New Tools, and Flexible on Estimates
733(1)
Proposition 2: Pay Heed to Markets, but Don't Let Them Determine Your Valuations
734(1)
Proposition 3: Risk Matters
735(2)
Proposition 4: Growth Is Not Free and Is Not Always Value-Adding
737(1)
Proposition 5: All Good Things Come to an End
737(1)
Proposition 6: Watch Out for Truncation Risk
738(1)
Proposition 7: Look at the Past, but Think About the Future
738(1)
Proposition 8: Draw on the Law of Large Numbers
739(1)
Proposition 9: Accept Uncertainty, and Deal with It
740(1)
Proposition 10: Value = Stories + Numbers
741(1)
Conclusion
742(1)
Index 743
Aswath Damodaran is Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He teaches the corporate finance and equity valuation courses in the MBA program. He received his MBA and PhD from the University of California at Los Angeles. He has written several books on corporate finance, valuation, and portfolio management. He has been at NYU since 1986 and has received the Stern School of Business Excellence in Teaching Award (awarded by the graduating class) eight times. He was profiled in BusinessWeek as one of the top twelve business school professors in the United States in 1994 and was chosen the most popular business school professor in 2012.