| Summary |
|
1 | (14) |
|
|
|
15 | (16) |
|
|
|
16 | (2) |
|
Applying the Decadal Process in a New Context |
|
|
18 | (2) |
|
|
|
20 | (7) |
|
|
|
20 | (4) |
|
Assessment of Information Collected |
|
|
24 | (1) |
|
Identification of Opportunities for Strengthening National Security |
|
|
25 | (2) |
|
|
|
27 | (1) |
|
|
|
28 | (3) |
|
PART I CONTEXT FOR THIS DECADAL STUDY |
|
|
|
|
|
31 | (18) |
|
The Universe of Intelligence and National Security |
|
|
31 | (5) |
|
The Security Infrastructure |
|
|
33 | (2) |
|
|
|
35 | (1) |
|
The Social and Behavioral Sciences |
|
|
36 | (4) |
|
Shared Challenges and Diverse Demands |
|
|
40 | (5) |
|
More Data and More Ways to Analyze Them |
|
|
40 | (2) |
|
Interdisciplinary Collaborations |
|
|
42 | (2) |
|
Diverse Cultures, Audiences, and Demands |
|
|
44 | (1) |
|
|
|
45 | (4) |
|
3 Global Context for the Decadal Study |
|
|
49 | (16) |
|
U.S. Government Documents |
|
|
49 | (7) |
|
Assessment of the National Intelligence Council |
|
|
50 | (3) |
|
President's National Security Policy |
|
|
53 | (1) |
|
U.S. Department of Defense Military Strategy |
|
|
54 | (1) |
|
National Intelligence Strategy |
|
|
55 | (1) |
|
Statements of International Organizations |
|
|
56 | (2) |
|
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
|
|
56 | (1) |
|
|
|
57 | (1) |
|
Persistent Themes and Emerging Threats |
|
|
58 | (4) |
|
|
|
62 | (3) |
|
4 The Work of the Intelligence Analyst |
|
|
65 | (20) |
|
|
|
65 | (2) |
|
|
|
67 | (9) |
|
The Analyst's Daily Activities |
|
|
69 | (3) |
|
|
|
72 | (1) |
|
Communicating Intelligence and Analysis to Others |
|
|
73 | (3) |
|
Illustrating Analytic Work |
|
|
76 | (3) |
|
Analytic Lens: Monitoring Terrorist Group Z |
|
|
78 | (1) |
|
Analytic Lens: Monitoring Weapons Proliferation |
|
|
78 | (1) |
|
Analytic Lens: Monitoring a Country |
|
|
79 | (1) |
|
|
|
79 | (2) |
|
|
|
81 | (4) |
|
PART II OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE IC |
|
|
|
5 Sensemaking: Emerging Ways to Answer Intelligence Questions |
|
|
85 | (56) |
|
Approaches to Understanding Human and Social Processes |
|
|
86 | (8) |
|
|
|
86 | (2) |
|
The Study of Social Networks |
|
|
88 | (2) |
|
The Study of Complex Systems |
|
|
90 | (2) |
|
|
|
92 | (2) |
|
Applying Social and Behavioral Science Research to Sensemaking for Core Analytic Problems |
|
|
94 | (28) |
|
Understanding Power and Influence |
|
|
95 | (13) |
|
Understanding Threats and Opportunities |
|
|
108 | (9) |
|
|
|
117 | (5) |
|
|
|
122 | (2) |
|
|
|
124 | (17) |
|
6 Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) Research to Enhance Security in Cyberspace |
|
|
141 | (48) |
|
What Is Social Cybersecurity Science? |
|
|
142 | (10) |
|
Drawing on Other Disciplines |
|
|
146 | (3) |
|
A Social Cybersecurity Approach to Studying a False Information Campaign |
|
|
149 | (3) |
|
|
|
152 | (2) |
|
Example Application: Social Influence on Twitter |
|
|
154 | (3) |
|
Research Needed in the Coming Decade |
|
|
157 | (7) |
|
Social Cyberforensics: Identifying Who Is Conducting Social Cybersecurity Attacks |
|
|
158 | (2) |
|
Information Maneuvers: Identifying the Strategies Used to Conduct an Attack |
|
|
160 | (4) |
|
Intent Identification: Identifying the Perpetrator's Motive |
|
|
164 | (10) |
|
Cross-Media Movement and Information Diffusion: Tracing the Attackers and the Impact of the Attack across Multiple Social Media Platforms |
|
|
167 | (1) |
|
Real-Time Measurement of the Effectiveness of Information Campaigns: Quantifying the Effectiveness of the Attack |
|
|
168 | (1) |
|
At-Risk Groups: Identifying Who Is Most Susceptible to Attacks |
|
|
169 | (3) |
|
The Most Effective Responses: Mitigating These Attacks |
|
|
172 | (2) |
|
|
|
174 | (2) |
|
|
|
176 | (13) |
|
7 Integrating the Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) into the Design of a Human-Machine Ecosystem |
|
|
189 | (64) |
|
A New Form of Analytic Work |
|
|
191 | (3) |
|
|
|
194 | (38) |
|
|
|
199 | (6) |
|
Human-Machine Interaction |
|
|
205 | (20) |
|
|
|
225 | (5) |
|
|
|
230 | (2) |
|
|
|
232 | (6) |
|
A Research Program to Support Design and Development |
|
|
233 | (1) |
|
|
|
234 | (4) |
|
|
|
238 | (15) |
|
8 Strengthening the Analytic Workforce for Future Challenges |
|
|
253 | (36) |
|
Selecting Individuals to Succeed in Intelligence Analyst Roles |
|
|
256 | (6) |
|
|
|
256 | (2) |
|
|
|
258 | (2) |
|
The Effectiveness and Utility of a Selection System |
|
|
260 | (1) |
|
Workforce Selection: Implications for the Intelligence Community |
|
|
261 | (1) |
|
Retaining Effective Analysts |
|
|
262 | (6) |
|
Dissatisfaction and the Desirability of Movement |
|
|
262 | (2) |
|
An Unfolding Model of Turnover Decisions |
|
|
264 | (1) |
|
Shifting the Focus from Who Leaves to Who Stays |
|
|
264 | (1) |
|
Social Influences in the Turnover Process |
|
|
265 | (1) |
|
Unmet Expectations and the Value of Realistic Job Previews |
|
|
266 | (1) |
|
|
|
267 | (1) |
|
Retaining Effective Analysts: Implications for the Intelligence Community |
|
|
267 | (1) |
|
Developing Skills Through Formal Training and Informal Learning |
|
|
268 | (3) |
|
Supporting the Analytic Workforce |
|
|
271 | (6) |
|
|
|
277 | (3) |
|
|
|
280 | (9) |
|
|
|
|
9 Strengthening Ties Between the Two Communities |
|
|
289 | (22) |
|
Lessons from Conducting the Decadal Survey |
|
|
289 | (3) |
|
Challenges and Benefits of a Broad Charge |
|
|
290 | (1) |
|
Challenges in Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) and Other Research |
|
|
291 | (1) |
|
Obstacles to Collaboration Between Researchers and the Intelligence Community (IC) |
|
|
292 | (2) |
|
Building on Past Collaborations |
|
|
293 | (1) |
|
Working Together: A Brief History |
|
|
294 | (12) |
|
Lessons for Productive Collaboration |
|
|
296 | (10) |
|
|
|
306 | (1) |
|
|
|
306 | (5) |
|
10 Capitalizing on Opportunities in Social and Behavioral Science (SBS) Research: A 10-Year Vision |
|
|
311 | (18) |
|
Intelligence Analysis in 10 Years |
|
|
311 | (2) |
|
Opportunities to Shape the Future of Intelligence Analysis |
|
|
313 | (4) |
|
Stronger Intelligence Assessments |
|
|
314 | (1) |
|
Tools and Technologies Optimally Designed for Human Use and Human-Machine Interaction |
|
|
315 | (1) |
|
Strengthened Readiness to Confront Evolving Security Threats |
|
|
316 | (1) |
|
Capitalizing on These Opportunities |
|
|
317 | (8) |
|
|
|
317 | (1) |
|
Strengthening Ties Between the IC and the Research Community |
|
|
318 | (7) |
|
|
|
325 | (1) |
|
|
|
326 | (3) |
|
|
|
|
A Summary of National Security-Related Research Programs |
|
|
329 | (8) |
|
B Summary of the Committee's Information Gathering |
|
|
337 | (20) |
|
C Reproducibility and Validity |
|
|
357 | (8) |
|
D New Data, New Research Tools, New Ethical Questions |
|
|
365 | (10) |
|
E Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff |
|
|
375 | |
