The author examines the role of demographics in the demand for higher education in the US, using the Higher Education Demand Index, which he developed from data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study to estimate the probability of college-going based on demographics, showing how the future demand for college attendance depends on institution type. He discusses major demographic changes in the US affecting higher education, such as immigration, interstate migration, birth rates, and the number of high school graduates; college-going probabilities and connections to demographics; the Higher Education Demand Index, its assumptions, and its use as a model; anticipated shifts in demand within higher education as a whole; demand for two-year programs and four-year schools; full-pay students; how future demand might change if recruitment efforts and policy innovations impacted gaps in college-going across dimensions of race/ethnicity and income; how changes to public policy might impact the rate of attendance; and what might happen in the 2030s. Annotation ©2018 Ringgold, Inc., Portland, OR (protoview.com)
Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwesttraditional higher education strongholdsexpect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years.
In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years.
Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.
