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Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program [Minkštas viršelis]

  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 144 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 07-Jul-2020
  • Leidėjas: RAND
  • ISBN-10: 1977403247
  • ISBN-13: 9781977403247
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 144 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 07-Jul-2020
  • Leidėjas: RAND
  • ISBN-10: 1977403247
  • ISBN-13: 9781977403247
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:

The U.S. Coast Guard’s Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.



The U.S. Coast Guard's motto is Semper Paratus--always ready. But for what? This report describes an approach to developing scenarios to aid in decisionmaking under deep uncertainty through the Evergreen strategic foresight initiative. The scenarios presented here focus on readiness, but the approach can be adapted for other contexts.

The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.
Preface iii
Figures
v
Tables
vi
Summary vii
Acknowledgments xvi
Abbreviations xvii
1 Introduction
1(6)
Evergreen and the Importance of Strategic Foresight for the Coast Guard
2(2)
Research Purpose, Approach, and Organization of This Report
4(3)
2 Insights from Evergreen's History and Relationship with Coast Guard Strategic Planning
7(16)
Lessons from Project Evergreen's History
7(10)
A Brief Overview of Coast Guard Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution and the Strategic Library
17(6)
3 A Framework for Organizing Mission-Relevant Drivers of Change
23(11)
A Decision Context for Scenarios
23(1)
The Stressors-and-Shocks Framework
24(4)
Mapping Stressors and Shocks to Coast Guard Decisions
28(6)
4 Shaping Global Planning Scenarios for Evergreen Analysis
34(30)
Our Overarching Scenario Development Approach
34(3)
Stressor-Based Scenario Families
37(22)
Common Resource Allocation and Distribution Considerations
59(5)
5 Findings and Conclusions
64(3)
A Review of Our Findings
65(1)
Conclusion - -
66(1)
Appendix A Full-Length Exemplar Scenario Narratives Used as the Basis for Evergreen Activities in Fiscal Years 2019 and 2020 67(33)
Appendix B An Expert Workshop to Identify Important Drivers for the Coast Guard 100(17)
References 117