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xi | |
Acknowledgments |
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xii | |
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1 Introduction: how and why to understand the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
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1 | (10) |
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1 Our approach to the economics of the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
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3 | (4) |
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2 A preview of our arguments |
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7 | (4) |
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9 | (2) |
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PART I Industrial revolutions: what they are, why they matter, how to analyse them |
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11 | (52) |
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2 Industrial revolutions past, present, and future: a brief overview of how we got here and where we're going |
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13 | (18) |
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1 From economic stagnation to economic growth |
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14 | (2) |
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2 Malthusian dynamics and the pre-growth era |
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16 | (3) |
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3 The industrial revolution: the first |
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19 | (2) |
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4 The technological revolution: the second |
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21 | (2) |
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5 The digital revolution: the third |
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23 | (2) |
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6 The Fourth Industrial Revolution |
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25 | (6) |
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27 | (4) |
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3 The telos of industrial revolutions: how what people value drives the adoption of new technologies |
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31 | (10) |
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32 | (1) |
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33 | (5) |
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3 Industrial revolutions promote higher-order values |
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38 | (3) |
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39 | (2) |
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4 The "Brisbane Club" model: mind, society, economy as complex evolving networks |
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41 | (22) |
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1 Society and economy as complex evolving networks |
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42 | (1) |
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2 Formation of socioeconomic systems: environment, mind, and socioeconomy |
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43 | (2) |
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3 Evolution of socioeconomic systems: changing environments, changing minds, changing technologies |
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45 | (6) |
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4 Micro-meso-macro: new ways of doing things cause disruption, then re-coordination |
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51 | (2) |
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5 Summary: applying the Brisbane Club model to the mega-technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
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53 | (10) |
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54 | (6) |
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60 | (3) |
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PART II Internet: hyper-competition, hyper-growth, and the struggle for attention in global markets |
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63 | (32) |
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5 Global markets and the struggle for attention: communication and platforms in the rapidly-evolving internet age |
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65 | (18) |
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1 The internet: a remarkable data-transfer technology |
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66 | (3) |
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2 Why the internet matters: platforms for socioeconomic interaction on a global scale |
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69 | (4) |
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3 The struggle for attention in the internet: cognitive constraints in a sea of information |
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73 | (2) |
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4 Disruption and re-coordination as global markets emerge: a hyper-charged economy |
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75 | (3) |
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5 Summary: global markets and the struggle for attention present opportunities to be seized and challenges to be mitigated |
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78 | (5) |
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79 | (2) |
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81 | (2) |
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6 The ocean in your pocket: case studies in global markets and the struggle for attention |
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83 | (12) |
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1 The smartphone and wearable technology |
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84 | (1) |
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84 | (1) |
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3 Entertainment applications |
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85 | (2) |
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4 Text and voice: from reading and typing to listening and speaking |
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87 | (1) |
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5 A tool for democratisation? Who controls the flows? |
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87 | (2) |
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6 Competing platforms, fragmentation, and the market for marketplaces |
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89 | (6) |
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91 | (4) |
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PART III Artificial intelligence: radical automation and expansion of human capability |
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95 | (30) |
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7 The I, Robot future: human work in an age of artificial intelligence |
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97 | (18) |
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1 The machine with a mind: what artificial intelligence is |
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98 | (3) |
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2 The economics of a machine with a mind: building a substitute for us |
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101 | (2) |
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3 The economic limits of artificial intelligence: where machines arc non-substitutablc for human labour |
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103 | (4) |
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4 Disruption and re-coordination as I, Robot rises: part Utopia, part plutocracy |
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107 | (2) |
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5 Summary: human work in an age of artificial intelligence presents challenges, but also profound opportunities |
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109 | (6) |
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111 | (2) |
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113 | (2) |
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8 The ghost and the machine: case studies in the I, Robot future |
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115 | (10) |
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1 Automation, capital, and labour |
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116 | (3) |
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2 Prediction and contingency planning |
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119 | (1) |
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3 Comparative advantages of human and machine prediction |
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120 | (2) |
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4 Supply chain optimization |
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122 | (3) |
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123 | (2) |
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PART IV Blockchain: decentralising power, authority, and the design of systems of governance |
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125 | (40) |
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9 The entrepreneurship of rules: institutions in an age of blockchain |
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127 | (16) |
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1 The ledger of facts: the blockchain as a foundation for privatised institutional governance of platforms |
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128 | (3) |
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2 Adopting a privatised platform with institutional governance: substitution between rule systems |
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131 | (4) |
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3 Disruption and re-coordination as privatised institutional governance emerges: a new era for community-based solutions |
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135 | (2) |
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4 Summary: the cntreprcneurship of rules faces significant challenges, but also presents extraordinary opportunities |
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137 | (6) |
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138 | (3) |
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141 | (2) |
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10 Leaderless revolutions: case studies in the entrepreneurship of rules |
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143 | (22) |
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1 Coordination, rules, governance, law, and order |
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143 | (5) |
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2 Alternative governance structures for institutions |
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148 | (4) |
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3 Some promising applications for blockchains |
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152 | (13) |
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159 | (6) |
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PART V Discussion and conclusions: harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution in systems building |
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165 | (27) |
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11 The new economy: opportunities, challenges, and what to do about them |
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167 | (21) |
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1 The new economy: global markets and the struggle for attention, Utopia with a hint of plutocracy, and privatised rules |
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168 | (4) |
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2 Opportunities and challenges in the new economy |
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172 | (1) |
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3 Strategies for seizing opportunities and mitigating challenges |
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173 | (10) |
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4 Summary: opportunities and challenges in the Fourth Industrial Revolution and what to do about them |
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183 | (5) |
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186 | (2) |
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12 Epilogue: a call to engage with a brave new world, and to have contingency plans |
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188 | (4) |
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190 | (2) |
Index |
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192 | |