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El. knyga: Economics of the Stock Market

3.28/5 (34 ratings by Goodreads)
(Founder, Smithers & Co.)
  • Formatas: 240 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 10-Mar-2022
  • Leidėjas: Oxford University Press
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780192662712
  • Formatas: 240 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 10-Mar-2022
  • Leidėjas: Oxford University Press
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780192662712

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The current consensus economic model, the neoclassical synthesis, depends on aprioristic assumptions that are shown to be invalid when tested against the data and fails to include finance. Economic policy based on this consensus has led to the financial crisis of 2008, the 'Great Recession'
that followed, and the slow subsequent rate of growth. In The Economics of the Stock Market, Andrew Smithers proposes a model that is robust when tested, and by including the impact of the stock market on the economy, overcomes both these defects. The faults of the current consensus model are shown
to result typically from an unscientific methodology in which assumptions are held to be valid despite their incompatibility with data evidence. Smithers demonstrates examples of these faults: the Miller/Modigliani Theorem (the assumption that leverage does not affect the value of produced capital
assets); the assumption that short-term and long-term interest rates, and the cost of equity capital, are co-determined; and the assumption that the decisions of corporate managements aim to maximise the present value of corporate assets ('profit maximisation') rather than the value determined by
the stock market. The Economics of the Stock Market proposes a model that includes and explains the stationarity of real returns on equity, based on the interaction of the differing utility preferences of the managers of companies and the owners of financial capital. These claims are highly
controversial, and Smithers proposes that the relative merits of the neoclassical synthesis and this proposed alternative can only be properly considered through public debate.

Recenzijos

Smithers was one of the few economists to warn about the internet bubble and the dangers posed by the ensuing global credit boom. His current concerns shouldn't be dismissed lightly. * Edward Chancellor, Reuters Breakingviews * While comparisons with Keynes might seem overly grand, it is possible to feel a similar sense of freshness at the approach taken by Andrew Smithers in his new book. He ostensibly focuses on the stock market but the treatment is wide ranging. The book sets out to challenge a number of assumptions and results in neoclassical models... * Sunil Krishnan, Society of Professional Economists * Awe-inspring, encompassing, convention-flouting analysis, hard stick-your-neck out empirical discoveries, and counter-intuitive hypotheses. Endlessly stimulating and intensely useful. * Avner Offer, Chichele Professor Emeritus of Economic History, University of Oxford * This is a bold book that questions virtually all the assumptions of prevailing neoclassical theory. By rejecting the concept of the "representative agent", proposing instead that households and corporate management have totally different motivations, Smithers shows how finance plays a crucial role in explaining developments in the real economy * William White, Senior Fellow at the CD Howe Institute and Former Economic Adviser Bank of International Settlements * The book poses a substantial and important challenge to financial economics. It is therefore important that the book should be published and the author's views debated. * Martin Weale, Professor of Economics, Kings College London. * The scope of The Economics of the Stock Market is ambitious and its tone quite provocative; both practitioners and academics will find this book relevant and stimulating. * Javier López Bernardo, PhD, CFA *

Daugiau informacijos

Winner of Included in the Financial Times Best Books of 2022: Economics.
List of Figures
xvii
List of Tables
xxi
1 Introduction
1(6)
2 Surprising Features of the Model
7(7)
3 The Model in Summary
14(7)
4 Management Behaviour, Investment, Debt, and Pay-out Ratios
21(10)
5 Corporate Leverage and Household Portfolio Preference
31(3)
6 The Growth of Corporate Equity
34(3)
7 The Yield Curve
37(4)
8 The Risk-free Short-term Rate of Interest
41(4)
9 Equity, Bond, and Cash Relative Returns
45(6)
10 Stock Market Returns Do Not Follow a Random Walk
51(4)
11 The Risks of Equities at Different Time Horizons
55(4)
12 The Time Horizon at Which Investors Will Prefer Equities to Bonds
59(2)
13 Changes in Aggregate Risk Aversion
61(4)
14 Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Portfolio Preferences
65(3)
15 Valuing the US Stock Market
68(7)
16 The Real Return on Equity Capital Worldwide
75(9)
17 Money- and Time-weighted Returns
84(3)
18 The Behaviour of the Firm
87(8)
19 Corporate Investment and the Miller-Modigliani Theorem
95(10)
20 Land, Inventories, and Trade Credit
105(4)
21 Howthe Market Returns to Fair Value
109(2)
22 Fluctuations in the Hurdle Rate
111(4)
23 Tangibles and Intangibles
115(6)
24 Other Problems from Labelling IP Expenditure as Investment
121(6)
25 Inflation, Leverage, Growth, and Financial Stability
127(5)
26 Tax
132(5)
27 Portfotio Preference and Retirement Savings
137(3)
28 Life Cycle Savings Hypothesis
140(3)
29 Depreciation, Capital Consumption, and Maintenance
143(4)
30 Comparison with Other Approaches
147(7)
31 The Efficient Market Hypothesis
154(2)
32 Summary
156(2)
33 Comments in Conclusion
158(3)
Appendices
1 The Duration of Bonds and Equities
161(2)
2 The Valuation of Unquoted Companies in The Financial Accounts of the United States-Z1
163(2)
3 Measurement of the Net Capital Stock and Depreciation in the United States
165(2)
4 Data Sources, Use, and Methods of Calculation
167(4)
Glossary 171(8)
Bibliography 179(4)
Index 183
Andrew Smithers is founder and director of economic consultancy Smithers & Co. He is the author of The Road to Recovery: How and Why Economic Policy Must Change (Wiley, 2013), and Productivity and the Bonus Culture (OUP, 2018).