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Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences [Minkštas viršelis]

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Edited by (Research Scientist, NASA GSFC/University of Maryland, USA)
  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 798 pages, aukštis x plotis: 235x191 mm, weight: 1610 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 01-Dec-2017
  • Leidėjas: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc
  • ISBN-10: 0128127007
  • ISBN-13: 9780128127001
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and ConsequencesDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: Paperback / softback, 798 pages, aukštis x plotis: 235x191 mm, weight: 1610 g
  • Išleidimo metai: 01-Dec-2017
  • Leidėjas: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc
  • ISBN-10: 0128127007
  • ISBN-13: 9780128127001
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Pastovi nuoroda: https://www.kriso.lt/db/9780128127001.html
Raktažodžiai:
Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences helps deepen the understanding, description, and forecasting of the complex and inter-related phenomena of extreme space weather events. Composed of chapters written by representatives from many different institutions and fields of space research, the book offers discussions ranging from definitions and historical knowledge to operational issues and methods of analysis.

Given that extremes in ionizing radiation, ionospheric irregularities, and geomagnetically induced currents may have the potential to disrupt our technologies or pose danger to human health, it is increasingly important to synthesize the information available on not only those consequences but also the origins and predictability of such events. Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences is a valuable source for providing the latest research for geophysicists and space weather scientists, as well as industries impacted by space weather events, including GNSS satellites and radio communication, power grids, aviation, and human spaceflight.

The list of first/second authors includes M. Hapgood, N. Gopalswamy, K.D. Leka, G. Barnes, Yu. Yermolaev, P. Riley, S. Sharma, G. Lakhina, B. Tsurutani, C. Ngwira, A. Pulkkinen, J. Love, P. Bedrosian, N. Buzulukova, M. Sitnov, W. Denig, M. Panasyuk, R. Hajra, D. Ferguson, S. Lai, L. Narici, K. Tobiska, G. Gapirov, A. Mannucci, T. Fuller-Rowell, X. Yue, G. Crowley, R. Redmon, V. Airapetian, D. Boteler, M. MacAlester, S. Worman, D. Neudegg, and M. Ishii.
Author Biography's xvii
Foreword xxxv
Acronyms xxxvii
Introduction xlix
PART 1 OVERVIEW OF IMPACTS AND EFFECTS
Chapter 1 Linking Space Weather Science to Impacts---The View From the Earth
3(34)
1 Introduction
3(1)
2 Space Weather Environments at Earth
4(4)
3 Geomagnetically Induced Currents---The Impacts of Natural Geoelectric Fields
8(8)
4 Space Weather Impacts on the Upper Atmosphere
16(9)
4.1 Overview of the Upper Atmosphere
16(1)
4.2 Trans-Ionospheric Radio Propagation
17(5)
4.3 Atmospheric Drag
22(3)
5 Atmospheric Radiation Environment
25(2)
6 Satellite Plasma Environments
27(2)
7 Looking to the Future: How May Space Weather Risks Evolve?
29(8)
References
31(6)
PART 2 SOLAR ORIGINS AND STATISTICS OF EXTREMES
Chapter 2 Extreme Solar Eruptions and their Space Weather Consequences
37(28)
1 Introduction
37(1)
2 Overview of Extreme Events
38(4)
3 Estimates of Extreme Events
42(9)
3.1 CME Speeds
42(1)
3.2 Distribution Functions for CME Speeds and Kinetic Energies
43(1)
3.3 Flare Size Distribution
44(2)
3.4 Active Regions and Their Magnetic Fields
46(5)
4 Consequences of Solar Eruptions
51(7)
4.1 SEP Events
51(1)
4.2 SEP Fluences
52(2)
4.3 Large Geomagnetic Storms
54(4)
5 Summary and Conclusions
58(7)
Acknowledgments
59(1)
References
59(4)
Further Reading
63(2)
Chapter 3 Solar Flare Forecasting: Present Methods and Challenges
65(34)
1 Introduction: Solar Flares and Societal Impacts
66(4)
1.1 Flare Forecasting History
68(2)
2 Present Approaches
70(11)
2.1 Two Basic Paradigms
70(1)
2.2 Event Definitions
71(1)
2.3 Parametrizations
72(2)
2.4 The Statistical Classifiers
74(1)
2.5 Self-Organized Criticality and Related
75(1)
2.6 Operational Versus Research
76(1)
2.7 Evaluation
76(2)
2.8 The Role of Numerical Models
78(3)
3 Present Status
81(5)
3.1 How Good?
81(2)
3.2 Why Not So Good?
83(1)
3.3 Extreme Solar Flares
84(2)
4 Future
86(3)
4.1 Outlook for the Extreme Extremes
87(1)
4.2 Pertinent Question: Are Forecasts Useful?
87(1)
4.3 Avenues for Improvement
88(1)
5 Summary and Recommendations
89(10)
Acknowledgments
90(1)
References
90(9)
Chapter 4 Geoeffectiveness of Solar and Interplanetary Structures and Generation of Strong Geomagnetic Storms
99(16)
1 Introduction
99(1)
2 Methods
100(1)
3 Results
101(5)
4 Discussion
106(3)
5 Conclusions
109(6)
Acknowledgments
110(1)
References
110(5)
Chapter 5 Statistics of Extreme Space Weather Events
115(24)
1 Introduction
115(2)
2 Methodologies
117(5)
2.1 Datasets
117(2)
2.2 Statistical Modeling
119(3)
3 Results
122(8)
3.1 Assessing the Validity of the Time Stationarity Assumption
126(1)
3.2 Analysis of Dxt and Dcx
127(1)
3.3 Extreme Space Weather Events in the Ionosphere: The AE Index
127(2)
3.4 Extreme Space Weather Events in the Heliosphere: Energetic Protons
129(1)
4 Discussion
130(5)
5 Future Studies
135(1)
6 Conclusions
136(3)
Acknowledgments
136(1)
References
137(2)
Chapter 6 Data-Driven Modeling of Extreme Space Weather
139(18)
1 Introduction
139(2)
2 Data-Driven Modeling of Space Weather
141(5)
3 Predictability of Extreme Space Weather
146(3)
4 Conclusion
149(8)
Acknowledgments
150(1)
References
150(3)
Further Reading
153(4)
PART 3 GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND GEOMAGNETICALLY INDUCED CURRENTS
Chapter 7 Supergeomagnetic Storms: Past, Present, and Future
157(30)
1 Historical Background
157(2)
2 Present Knowledge About Geomagnetic Storms
159(5)
2.1 Interplanetary Causes of Intense Magnetic Storms
159(2)
2.2 Magnetic Storms: Categories and Types
161(1)
2.3 Some Important Characteristics of Magnetic Storms
161(3)
3 Supermagnetic Storms
164(9)
3.1 Past Supermagnetic Storms
166(3)
3.2 Supermagnetic Storms: Present (Space-Age Era)
169(2)
3.3 Supermagnetic Storms: In Future
171(2)
4 Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Supermagnetic Storm
173(1)
5 Conclusions
174(13)
Acknowledgments
175(1)
Glossary
175(2)
References
177(7)
Further Reading
184(3)
Chapter 8 An Overview of Science Challenges Pertaining to Our Understanding of Extreme Geomagnetically Induced Currents
187(22)
1 Introduction
187(2)
1.1 Geomagnetic Storms at Earth
188(1)
1.2 Basic Theory of GICs
188(1)
2 Impact on Ground Systems
189(4)
2.1 Electrical Power Systems
190(2)
2.2 Oil and Gas Pipelines
192(1)
2.3 Other Systems
193(1)
3 U.S. Federal Actions Relating to GICs
193(1)
4 Key Science Challenges
194(7)
4.1 Extreme Drivers
195(2)
4.2 Modeling Extremes
197(2)
4.3 Defining Extremes
199(2)
5 Concluding Remarks
201(8)
Acknowledgments
201(1)
References
202(7)
Chapter 9 Extreme-Event Geoelectric Hazard Maps
209(22)
1 Introduction
209(1)
2 Defining the Hazard
210(1)
3 Direct Geoelectric Monitoring
211(1)
4 Induction in a Conducting Earth
211(1)
5 Magnetic Observatory Data
212(1)
6 Geomagnetic Waveform Time Series
212(3)
7 Observatory Magnetic Hazard Functions
215(1)
8 Global Magnetic Hazard Functions
216(1)
9 Magnetotelluric Impedances
217(2)
10 Geological Interpretations
219(2)
11 Geoelectric Hazard Maps
221(4)
12 Discussion
225(6)
Acknowledgments
225(1)
References
225(6)
Chapter 10 Geomagnetic Storms: First-Principles Models for Extreme Geospace Environment
231(28)
1 Introduction
232(2)
2 Overview of First-Principles Magnetospheric Models
234(2)
3 Modeling of Extreme and Intense Geomagnetic Storms
236(5)
3.1 Modeling of Carrington-Type Events
238(1)
3.2 Modeling of Radiation Belt Response for Extreme Storms
239(2)
4 An Example: Geomagnetic Storm of June 22-23, 2015
241(7)
4.1 The Model Run Setup
241(1)
4.2 The Results for Pressure and Current Distribution
242(2)
4.3 Comparison With Ground-Based Magnetometers and Satellite Data
244(4)
5 Role of the Ring Current Plasma in Generation of dB/dt and Variability of Electric Fields and FACs at Low Latitudes
248(2)
6 Challenges and Future Directions
250(1)
7 Conclusions
251(8)
Acknowledgments
252(1)
References
252(7)
Chapter 11 Empirical Modeling of Extreme Events: Storm-Time Geomagnetic Field, Electric Current, and Pressure Distributions
259(24)
1 Introduction
259(2)
2 Recent Advances in Empirical Geomagnetic Field Modeling
261(3)
2.1 Model Structure
261(2)
2.2 Data Binning
263(1)
2.3 Model Database
264(1)
3 March 2015 Storm
264(6)
4 Bastille Day Storm
270(5)
5 Conclusion
275(8)
Acknowledgments
275(1)
References
276(7)
PART 4 PLASMA AND RADIATION ENVIRONMENT
Chapter 12 Extreme Space Weather Events: A GOES Perspective
283(66)
1 Introduction
283(3)
2 GOES Extreme Space Weather Events
286(15)
3 GOES Extreme Events, Cases 1--12
301(23)
4 Concluding Remarks
324(25)
Acknowledgments
324(1)
References
325(24)
Chapter 13 Near-Earth Radiation Environment for Extreme Solar and Geomagnetic Conditions
349(24)
1 Introduction
349(1)
2 Solar Energetic Particles in Space
350(4)
2.1 Concept of Extreme SEP Events
350(1)
2.2 Largest SEP Events and Distribution Function
351(3)
2.3 Solar Cosmic Rays: Penetration Boundary and Changes of Cutoff Rigidities
354(1)
3 GCR Modulation Over the Solar Cycles
354(5)
4 The Inner Proton Radiation Belt Variations Over Solar Cycles
359(2)
5 Radiation Environment for Crewed Orbital Stations
361(6)
6 Conclusions
367(6)
Acknowledgments
368(1)
References
368(4)
Further Reading
372(1)
Chapter 14 Magnetospheric "Killer" Relativistic Electron Dropouts (REDs) and Repopulation: A Cyclical Process
373(28)
1 Introduction
374(1)
2 Solar Wind/Interplanetary Driving and Geomagnetic Characteristics: A Schematic
375(2)
3 Relativistic Electron Dropout and Acceleration: An Example
377(2)
4 Solar Cycle Phase Dependence of Electron Acceleration
379(2)
5 Maximum Energy-Level Dependence of Electron Acceleration
381(3)
6 HILDCAA Duration Dependence of Electron Acceleration
384(1)
7 Are CIR Storms Important?
385(2)
8 Relativistic Electron Variation During ICME Magnetic Storms
387(3)
8.1 Fast Shock, Sheath, and First Magnetic Storm
387(2)
8.2 Magnetic Cloud (MC) and Second and Third Storms
389(1)
8.3 HSS and Storm Recovery Phase
389(1)
8.4 Relativistic Electron Flux Variability During the Complex Interplanetary Event: Shock Effects
389(1)
8.5 Electron Acceleration
390(1)
9 Conclusions
390(11)
References
391(10)
Chapter 15 Extreme Space Weather Spacecraft Surface Charging and Arcing Effects
401(18)
1 Limits of Discussion
402(1)
2 Cause of Arcing
402(1)
3 Effects of Arcing
402(2)
4 Physics of Charging in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit
404(1)
5 The Spacecraft Charging Equation
405(6)
6 What Are the Worst Spacecraft Charging Events?
411(1)
7 Limits on Spacecraft Charging Events
412(3)
8 The Galaxy 15 Failure
415(1)
9 Conclusion
416(3)
References
416(3)
Chapter 16 Deep Dielectric Charging and Spacecraft Anomalies
419(14)
1 Introduction
419(1)
2 What Is Deep Dielectric Charging?
420(3)
2.1 The Roles of Ions
422(1)
3 Space Environments
423(3)
3.1 Trapped Radiation
423(1)
3.2 Temporal Variation of the Radiation Belts
423(1)
3.3 Relative Role of Electrons and Ions
424(2)
4 Deep Dielectric Charging and Discharging
426(2)
5 Dependence from Geomagnetic Indices: Dst and Kp Index
428(1)
6 Delay Time
428(1)
7 Discharge Event Parameters
429(1)
8 Spacecraft Design Guidelines
429(2)
9 Conclusion
431(2)
Acknowledgment
431(1)
References
431(2)
Chapter 17 Solar Particle Events and Human Deep Space Exploration: Measurements and Considerations
433(20)
1 Radiation in Space and Health Risks for Astronauts
433(2)
2 GCR vs SPEs: Different Approaches for Risk Mitigation
435(2)
3 SPEs as Measured in a Space Habitat (International Space Station)
437(1)
4 The ALTEA Detector Onboard the ISS
438(1)
5 Results From SPE Measurements in the ISS
438(8)
5.1 The December 13, 2006, SPE
438(3)
5.2 The March 7, 2012, SPE
441(3)
5.3 The May 17, 2012, SPE
444(2)
6 Final Remarks
446(3)
6.1 Forecasting at 1 AU
446(1)
6.2 Forecasting at Space Habitat
447(1)
6.3 Radiation on Mars
447(1)
6.4 Countermeasures
448(1)
7 Conclusions
449(4)
Acknowledgments
449(1)
References
449(4)
Chapter 18 Characterizing the Variation in Atmospheric Radiation at Aviation Altitudes
453(20)
1 Radiation Sources and Their Effects on Aviation
453(3)
2 Status of Models
456(1)
3 Status of Measurements
457(1)
4 Status of Monitoring for Extreme Conditions
458(2)
5 Classification of Aviation-Relevant Extreme Space Weather Radiation Events
460(3)
6 Example of an Extreme Event
463(3)
7 Conclusion
466(7)
Acknowledgments
466(1)
References
467(6)
Chapter 19 High-Energy Transient Luminous Atmospheric Phenomena: The Potential Danger for Suborbital Flights
473(20)
1 Introduction
473(1)
2 Phenomenology of TLEs
474(3)
3 Experimental Data on TLE from UVRIR Detector on Board Moscow State University Satellites
477(6)
3.1 TLE Types Measured by UVRIR Detector
478(2)
3.2 TLE Distribution Over Photon Numbers
480(1)
3.3 Series of TLE
480(3)
4 Discussion
483(4)
4.1 Overview of TLE Models and Relation to Other Space Weather Phenomena
483(2)
4.2 TLE Energy Deposition
485(1)
4.3 TLEs as a Radiation Hazard
486(1)
5 Results and Conclusions
487(6)
References
488(2)
Further Reading
490(3)
PART 5 IONOSPHERIC/THERMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND IMPACTS
Chapter 20 Ionosphere and Thermosphere Responses to Extreme Geomagnetic Storms
493(20)
1 Historical Background
493(2)
2 Electric Fields and the Creation of Large TEC Increases
495(6)
2.1 Equatorial Plasma Irregularities and Scintillation
499(2)
3 The Role of Ion-Neutral Coupling
501(3)
3.1 Buoyancy (Gravity) Waves
503(1)
4 Extreme Nighttime Responses Following the Storm Main Phase (Florida Effect)
504(2)
5 Conclusions and Future Outlook
506(7)
Acknowledgments
508(1)
References
508(3)
Further Reading
511(2)
Chapter 21 How Might the Thermosphere and Ionosphere React to an Extreme Space Weather Event?
513(28)
1 Introduction
513(4)
2 Effects of Solar EUV and UV Radiation
517(2)
3 Effect of an Extreme Solar Flare
519(1)
4 Effects of an Extreme CME Driving a Geomagnetic Storm
520(12)
4.1 Defining the Drivers
521(4)
4.2 Neutral Atmosphere Response to an Extreme Geomagnetic Storm
525(4)
4.3 Ionospheric Response to an Extreme Geomagnetic Storm
529(3)
5 Summary and Conclusions
532(9)
Acknowledgments
533(1)
References
534(5)
Further Reading
539(2)
Chapter 22 The Effect of Solar Radio Bursts on GNSS Signals
541(14)
1 Introduction
541(3)
1.1 The Solar Radio Burst (SRB)
541(2)
1.2 The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)
543(1)
2 Review the Effect of SRBs on GNSS Signals
544(3)
2.1 Reduction of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)
545(1)
2.2 Signal Loss of Lock (LOL)
545(1)
2.3 Decrease of Positioning Precision
546(1)
2.4 Effect on Space-Based GNSS
546(1)
2.5 Threshold Value of SRBs Affecting GNSS
547(1)
3 Extreme SRB Case on December 6, 2006
547(4)
4 Discussions
551(1)
5 Conclusions
552(3)
Acknowledgments
552(1)
References
552(3)
Chapter 23 Extreme Ionospheric Storms and Their Effects on GPS Systems
555(32)
1 Introduction
555(2)
2 Global Positioning System
557(1)
3 The Ionosphere
558(7)
3.1 Total Electron Content
559(1)
3.2 Low-Latitude Scintillation
560(1)
3.3 High-Latitude Scintillation
561(4)
4 Ionospheric Structures Evident in TEC Data
565(7)
4.1 Storm Enhanced Densities, Patches and Blobs
565(4)
4.2 Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances
569(3)
5 Event Studies for Large Ionospheric Storms
572(3)
5.1 October 2003
574(1)
5.2 November 2003
574(1)
5.3 November 2004
575(1)
6 System Effects of Ionospheric Storms
575(3)
7 Discussion
578(9)
Acknowledgments
580(1)
References
580(6)
Further Reading
586(1)
Chapter 24 Recent Geoeffective Space Weather Events and Technological System Impacts
587(24)
1 Introduction
588(1)
2 Recent Events: Overview
588(2)
3 Solar Origins of Activity
590(1)
4 Geospace Response
591(4)
4.1 Energetic Particles and Magnetic Field Observations at GEO
592(1)
4.2 Geosynchronous Magnetopause Crossings
593(1)
4.3 Radiation Environment at GEO
593(1)
4.4 Radiation Environment at LEO
594(1)
5 Ionospheric Effects
595(6)
6 System Impacts
601(4)
6.1 Technological System Impacts
601(1)
6.2 Aviation Navigation System Impacts
602(3)
7 Summary
605(6)
Acknowledgments
605(1)
References
605(4)
Further Reading
609(2)
Chapter 25 Extreme Space Weather in Time: Effects on Earth
611(24)
1 Introduction
611(1)
2 Space Weather Events From the Current Sun
612(1)
3 Space Weather Events From the Young Sun
613(4)
3.1 Solar Superflares and CMEs
614(2)
3.2 The Young Sun's Wind
616(1)
4 3D MHD Model of Super-CME Interaction With the Early Earth
617(7)
4.1 Effects of CMEs on the Magnetosphere of the Early Earth
618(4)
4.2 Effects of XUV Flux on Atmospheric Escape From the Young Earth
622(2)
5 Space Weather as a Factor of Habitability
624(4)
6 Conclusions
628(7)
Acknowledgments
629(1)
References
629(3)
Further Reading
632(3)
PART 6 DEALING WITH THE SPACE WEATHER
Chapter 26 Dealing With Space Weather: The Canadian Experience
635(22)
1 Introduction
635(2)
2 High-Frequency Radio Communications
637(2)
3 Satellites
639(3)
4 Ground Systems
642(4)
5 Surveying and Navigation
646(2)
6 Concluding Remarks
648(9)
Acknowledgments
652(1)
References
652(3)
Further Reading
655(2)
Chapter 27 Space Weather: What are Policymakers Seeking?
657(26)
1 Introduction
657(2)
2 Key Concepts
659(7)
2.1 Space Weather as a Natural Hazard
659(3)
2.2 Policy Responses to Natural Hazards
662(2)
2.3 The Importance of Science
664(2)
3 How to Assess Extreme Risks
666(5)
4 What Knowledge is Needed in the Future
671(12)
4.1 The Need for Data
671(1)
4.2 The Need to Learn From Meteorology
672(2)
4.3 The Need for Better Science and Better Models
674(4)
References
678(4)
Further Reading
682(1)
Chapter 28 Extreme Space Weather and Emergency Management
683(18)
1 Why Emergency Managers Care
684(1)
2 Understanding the Risks of Extreme Solar Events
684(4)
2.1 The Hazard
684(4)
3 What Emergency Managers Need From Researchers and Engineers
688(11)
3.1 Plain Language
688(1)
3.2 Expert Analysis Available on Demand
688(1)
3.3 Sharable Information
689(1)
3.4 Improved Forecast Products
690(9)
4 Conclusion
699(2)
References
699(1)
Further Reading
700(1)
Chapter 29 The Social and Economic Impacts of Moderate and Severe Space Weather
701(10)
1 Introduction
701(2)
2 Approach
703(2)
3 Results
705(4)
3.1 Electric Power
705(2)
3.2 Aviation
707(1)
3.3 Satellites
708(1)
3.4 GNSS Users
708(1)
4 Next Steps and Concluding Remarks
709(2)
References
709(1)
Further Reading
710(1)
Chapter 30 Severe Space Weather Events in the Australian Context
711(8)
1 Introduction and Concept Development
711(1)
2 The Nature of Severe Events and the Regional Context
712(3)
3 The Severe Event Service
715(1)
4 Policy Background
716(1)
5 Stakeholder Technology Groups
716(1)
6 Conclusion
717(2)
References
718(1)
Chapter 31 Extreme Space Weather Research in Japan
719(8)
1 Overview and History of Operational Space Weather Forecast
719(1)
2 Action to Telecommunications and Satellite Positioning
720(1)
3 Action to Aviation
721(2)
4 Action to Satellite Saving
723(1)
5 Action to GIC
724(1)
6 Introduction of PSTEP
725(2)
References
725(2)
Index 727
Dr. Natalia Buzulukova is a research scientist in University of Maryland/NASA GSFC, Heliophysics Science Division, Maryland, US. She obtained her PhD from Moscow Space Research Institute working in the field of plasma physics and data analysis. Dr. Buzulukovas scientific interests cover a broad range of topics, including magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the Earths magnetosphere, kinetic Particle-In-Cell simulations of the geomagnetic tail, bounce-averaged models of the Earths ring current, modeling of the Earths plasmasphere, modeling of energetic neutral atom emissions, modeling of the Earths radiation belts, and space weather applications. Dr. Buzulukova is experienced in working with satellite data sets, including past and current NASA missions, and has authored or co-authored more than 20 publications in peer-reviewed journals related to the field.