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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets [Kietas viršelis]

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  • Formatas: Hardback, 368 pages, aukštis x plotis x storis: 244x163x33 mm, weight: 584 g, CHARTS THROUGHOUT
  • Serija: Incerto 1
  • Išleidimo metai: 14-Oct-2008
  • Leidėjas: Random House Inc
  • ISBN-10: 1400067936
  • ISBN-13: 9781400067930
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the MarketsDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: Hardback, 368 pages, aukštis x plotis x storis: 244x163x33 mm, weight: 584 g, CHARTS THROUGHOUT
  • Serija: Incerto 1
  • Išleidimo metai: 14-Oct-2008
  • Leidėjas: Random House Inc
  • ISBN-10: 1400067936
  • ISBN-13: 9781400067930
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Pastovi nuoroda: https://www.kriso.lt/db/9781400067930.html
Raktažodžiai:
Contends that randomness and probability have a large impact on life, claims that people regularly fail to recognize that role, and tells how to differentiate between randomness in general and the financial markets in particular. The author of The Black Swan argues that randomness and probability have a profound influence on human life, as well as the consistent inability of humans to recognize that role, and explains how to differentiate between randomness in general and the financial markets in particular. 15,000 first printing.
Preface ix
Acknowledgments for the Updated Second Edition xxi
Chapter Summaries xxxvii
Prologue xli
PART I: SOLON'S WARNING
Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction
One IF YOU'RE SO RICH, WHY AREN'T YOU SO SMART?
5
NERO TULIP
5
Hit by Lightning
5
Temporary Sanity
6
Modus Operandi
9
No Work Ethics
11
There Are Always Secrets
12
JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER
12
An Overpaid Hick
14
THE RED-HOT SUMMER
17
Serotonin and Randomness
18
YOUR DENTIST IS RICH, VERY RICH
20
Two A BIZARRE ACCOUNTING METHOD
22
ALTERNATIVE HISTORY
22
Russian Roulette
23
Possible Worlds
24
An Even More Vicious Roulette
26
SMOOTH PEER RELATIONS
27
Salvation via Aeroflot
29
Solon Visits Regine's Nightclub
30
GEORGE WILL IS NO SOLON: ON COUNTERINTUITIVE TRUTHS
33
Humiliated in Debates
36
A Different Kind of Earthquake
37
Proverbs Galore
39
Risk Managers
40
Epiphenomena
41
Three A MATHEMATICAL MEDITATION ON HISTORY
43
Europlayboy Mathematics
43
The Tools
44
Monte Carlo Mathematics
47
FUN IN MY ATTIC
49
Making History
49
Zorglubs Crowding the Attic
50
Denigration of History
51
The Stove Is Hot
52
Skills in Predicting Past History
55
My Solon
56
DISTILLED THINKING ON YOUR PALMPILOT
58
Breaking News
58
Shiller Redux
61
Gerontocracy
63
PHILOSTRATUS IN MONTE CARLO: ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOISE AND INFORMATION
64
Four RANDOMNESS, NONSENSE, AND THE SCIENTIFIC INTELLECTUAL
70
RANDOMNESS AND THE VERB
70
Reverse Turing Test
72
The Father of All Pseudothinkers
74
MONTE CARLO POETRY
75
Five SURVIVAL OF THE LEAST FIT—CAN EVOLUTION BE FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS?
79
CARLOS THE EMERGING-MARKETS WIZARD
79
The Good Years
82
Averaging Down
83
Lines in the Sand
84
JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER
86
The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations
87
The Traits They Shared
90
A REVIEW OF MARKET FOOLS OF RANDOMNESS CONSTANTS
91
NAIVE EVOLUTIONARY THEORIES
94
Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness?
96
Six SKEWNESS AND ASYMMETRY
97
THE MEDIAN IS NOT THE MESSAGE
97
BULL AND BEAR ZOOLOGY
99
An Arrogant Twenty-nine-year-old Son
102
Rare Events
103
Symmetry and Science
105
ALMOST EVERYBODY IS ABOVE AVERAGE
106
THE RARE-EVENT FALLACY
108
The Mother of All Deceptions
108
Why Don't Statisticians Detect Rare Events?
112
A Mischievous Child Replaces the Black Balls
113
Seven THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION
116
FROM BACON TO HUME
116
Cygnus Atratus
117
Niederhoffer
117
SIR KARL'S PROMOTING AGENT
122
Location, Location
125
Popper's Answer
126
Open Society
129
Nobody Is Perfect
129
Induction and Memory
130
Pascal's Wager
130
THANK YOU, SOLON
131
PART II MONKEYS ON TYPEWRITERS
Survivorship and Other Biases
IT DEPENDS ON THE NUMBER OF MONKEYS
136
VICIOUS REAL LIFE
137
THIS SECTION
137
Eight TOO MANY MILLIONAIRES NEXT DOOR
139
HOW TO STOP THE STING OF FAILURE
139
Somewhat Happy
139
Too Much Work
140
You're a Failure
141
DOUBLE SURVIVORSHIP BIASES
143
More Experts
143
Visibility Winners
145
It's a Bull Market
145
A GURU'S OPINION
147
Nine IT IS EASIER TO BUY AND SELL THAN FRY AN EGG
149
FOOLED BY NUMBERS
151
Placebo Investors
151
Nobody Has to Be Competent
153
Regression to the Mean
155
Ergodicity
156
LIFE IS COINCIDENTAL
157
The Mysterious Letter
157
An Interrupted Tennis Game
158
Reverse Survivors
159
The Birthday Paradox
159
It's a Small World!
159
Data Mining, Statistics, and Charlatanism
160
The Best Book I Have Ever Read!
161
The Backtester
162
A More Unsettling Extension
164
The Earnings Season: Fooled by the Results
164
COMPARATIVE LUCK
165
Cancer Cures
166
Professor Pearson Goes to Monte Carlo (Literally): Randomness Does Not Look Random!
168
The Dog That Did Not Bark: On Biases in Scientific Knowledge
170
I HAVE NO CONCLUSION
170
Ten LOSER TAKES ALL—ON THE NONLINEARITIES OF LIFE
172
THE SANDPILE EFFECT
172
Enter Randomness
174
Learning to Type
175
MATHEMATICS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE REAL WORLD
176
The Science of Networks
178
Our Brain
179
Buridan's Donkey or the Good Side of Randomness
179
WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS
180
Eleven RANDOMNESS AND OUR MIND: WE ARE PROBABILITY BLIND
182
PARIS OR THE BAHAMAS?
182
SOME ARCHITECTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
183
BEWARE THE PHILOSOPHER BUREAUCRAT
185
Satisficing
186
FLAWED, NOT JUST IMPERFECT
187
Kahneman and Tversky
187
WHERE IS NAPOLEON WHEN WE NEED HIM?
190
"I'm As Good As My Last Trade" and Other Heuristics
191
Degree in a Fortune Cookie
194
Two Systems of Reasoning
196
WHY WE DON'T MARRY THE FIRST DATE
197
Our Natural Habitat
198
Fast and Frugal
200
Neurobiologists Too
201
Kafka in a Courtroom
203
An Absurd World
205
Examples of Biases in Understanding Probability
206
We Are Option Blind
207
PROBABILITIES AND THE MEDIA (MORE JOURNALISTS)
210
CNBC at Lunchtime
211
You Should Be Dead by Now
212
The Bloomberg Explanations
213
Filtering Methods
216
We Do Not Understand Confidence Levels
216
An Admission
218
PART III WAX IN MY EARS
Living with Randomitis
I AM NOT SO INTELLIGENT
222
WITTGENSTEIN'S RULER
223
THE ODYSSEAN MUTE COMMAND
224
Twelve GAMBLERS' TICKS AND PIGEONS IN A BOX
226
TAXI-CAB ENGLISH AND CAUSALITY
226
THE SKINNER PIGEON EXPERIMENT
229
PHILOSTRATUS REDUX
231
Thirteen CARNEADES COMES TO ROME: ON PROBABILITY AND SKEPTICISM
234
CARNEADES COMES TO ROME
235
Probability, the Child of Skepticism
237
MONSIEUR DE NORPOIS' OPINIONS
238
Path Dependence of Beliefs
239
COMPUTING INSTEAD OF THINKING
241
FROM FUNERAL TO FUNERAL
244
Fourteen BACCHUS ABANDONS ANTONY
245
NOTES ON JACKIE O.'S FUNERAL
247
RANDOMNESS AND PERSONAL ELEGANCE
249
Epilogue SOLON TOLD YOU SO 250
Beware the London Traffic Jams
250
Postscript THREE AFTERTHOUGHTS IN THE SHOWER 253
FIRST THOUGHT: THE INVERSE SKILLS PROBLEM
254
SECOND THOUGHT: ON SOME ADDITIONAL BENEFITS OF RANDOMNESS
257
Uncertainty and Happiness
257
The Scrambling of Messages
261
THIRD THOUGHT: STANDING ON ONE LEG
262
Acknowledgments for the First Edition 263
A Trip to the Library: Notes and Reading Recommendations 267
Notes
269
References
293
Index 307