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El. knyga: Forecasting Forest Futures: A Hybrid Modelling Approach to the Assessment of Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems and their Values [Taylor & Francis e-book]

, (Universidad Publica de Navarra, Spain)
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Modelling is an important tool for understanding the complexity of forest ecosystems and the variety of interactions of ecosystem components, processes and values. This book describes the hybrid approach to modelling forest ecosystems and their possible response to natural and management-induced disturbance. The book describes the FORECAST family of ecosystem management models at three different spatial scales (tree, stand and landscape), and compares them with alternative models at these three spatial scales.

The book will help forest managers to understand what to expect from ecosystem-based forest models; serve as a tool for use in teaching about sustainability, scenario analysis and value trade-offs in natural resources management; and assist policy makers, managers and researches working in assessment of sustainable forest management and ecosystem management. Several real-life examples of using the FORECAST family of models in forest management and other applications are presented from countries including Canada, China, Spain and the USA, to illustrate the concepts described in the text. The book also demonstrates how these models can be extended for scenario and value trade-off analysis through visualization and educational or management games.

Preface ix
Acknowledgements xi
List of abbreviations
xiii
1 Introduction: Why do we Need Ecosystem-Level Models as Decision-Support Tools in Forestry?
1(16)
Introduction
1(1)
Human population growth: the ultimate environmental threat to the world's forests
2(3)
The failure of science to provide the necessary analytical and forecasting tools for resource management: the question of complexity and prediction
5(4)
Complexity and prediction in forestry: levels of biological organization and integration
9(2)
The role of process-based, ecosystem-level hybrid simulation models as a component of the solution to problems posed by complexity in forestry
11(3)
Take-home message
14(1)
Additional material
14(1)
Notes
14(3)
2 Ecological and Environmental Concepts that should be Addressed in Forestry Decision-Support Tools
17(28)
Introduction
17(1)
The problem of uncritical use of, or failure to define, terms commonly used in environmental debates about forestry: the dangers posed by the anthropomorphizing of ecosystems
18(4)
Ecosystem stability
22(11)
Ecosystem resilience
33(2)
Ecosystem health
35(2)
Forest ecosystem integrity
37(2)
Are ecosystems `complex adaptive systems'?
39(1)
Old growth
40(2)
Dangers of the misuse of terminology: feeding inappropriate belief systems
42(1)
Take-home message
43(1)
Additional material
43(2)
3 Hybrid Simulation in the Context of Other Classes of Forest Models, and the Development of the FORECAST Family of Hybrid Simulation Models
45(14)
Introduction
45(1)
A three-level classification of models
45(3)
Brief history of the development of these three categories
48(4)
The FORECAST-HORIZON family of hybrid simulation models
52(1)
Major categories of hybrid simulation models we have developed
53(4)
Take-home message
57(1)
Additional material
57(2)
4 Forestry in Transition: The Need for Individual Tree Models
59(20)
Introduction
59(1)
The ideal individual tree model
60(5)
Individual tree models as management tools
65(4)
FORCEE: a comprehensive, spatially explicit, individual tree management and agroforestry model
69(7)
Take-home message
76(1)
Additional material
77(2)
5 Stand-Level Hybrid Models as Tools to Support Ecosystem-Based Management
79(42)
Introduction
79(2)
Classification of stand-level hybrid models
81(1)
Description of the hybrid modelling approach employed in FORECAST
82(6)
Overview of FORECAST evaluation studies
88(13)
Applications of FORECAST
101(14)
Development of FORECAST Climate
115(2)
Take-home message
117(1)
Additional material
118(3)
6 Landscape-Level Models in Forest Management
121(16)
Introduction
121(1)
Development of landscape-level models for forest management
122(4)
The LLEMS model: a multi-value, local landscape extension of FORECAST for variable retention harvesting
126(6)
Example application of LLEMS to evaluate dispersed retention alternatives
132(2)
Ongoing development
134(1)
Take-home message
135(1)
Additional material
135(2)
7 Educational Models in Forest Management
137(18)
Introduction
137(6)
The use of ecological models as educational tools
143(4)
FORTOON: a high-school-level, introductory, multiple-value forest management game
147(4)
PFF: Possible Forest Futures
151(1)
Multiple run manager for FORECAST
152(1)
Take-home message
153(1)
Additional material
154(1)
8 How to Develop a Model for Forest Management
155(38)
Introduction
155(7)
Basic steps to develop a model of forest management
162(21)
Uncertainty and complexity in model development
183(8)
Take-home message
191(1)
Additional material
191(1)
Note
191(2)
9 The Role of Ecosystem Management Models in Adaptive Management, Certification and Land Reclamation
193(20)
Introduction
193(1)
The role of forest ecosystem management models in adaptive management
194(6)
The need for credible forecasts of possible forest futures as an essential component of forest certification
200(7)
Ecosystem management models in reclamation planning
207(3)
Take-home message
210(1)
Additional material
211(1)
Note
211(2)
10 Future Perspectives in Hybrid Modelling
213(24)
Introduction
213(1)
Linking forest management models that work at different scales
214(2)
Using hybrid models and visualizations to communicate with the general public
216(19)
Take-home message
235(1)
Additional material
236(1)
Notes
236(1)
References 237(36)
Index 273
Hamish Kimmins: Following an undergraduate degree in Forestry from the University of Wales and an M.Sc. in Forest Entomology from the University of California at Berkeley, Dr. Kimmins, received his PhD in Forest Ecology at Yale University, focusing on the relationship between ecosystem function and herbivore population dynamics. Since 1969 he has been a Professor of Forest Ecology at the University of British Columbia, Canada, where he has presented courses on forest ecology, ecosystem classification, ecological aspects of silviculture, environmental issues in forestry, ecosystem function and response to disturbance, and modelling forest ecosystems to undergraduates, graduate students and professional foresters. He has developed and until recently tutorsed a UBC web-based Distance Education course in Forest Ecology. For the past thirty three years, Dr. Kimmins has worked to develop ecologically-based forest ecosystem management models, from the spatially-explicit, individual tree stand model FORCEE, to the a-spatial stand model FORECAST, to the spatial, local landscape, complex disturbance patch model LLEMS, and the spatial watershed ecosystem management model POSSIBLE FOREST FUTURES. These models range from a high school education forest management game (FORTOON), to decision support and research tools, to scenario analysis and value trade-off assessment tools. He is currently an emeritus professor after holding a Senior Canada Research Chair in Modelling the Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems, and is Director of the Forest Ecosystem Management Modelling Group in the Department of Forest Sciences. Dr. Kimmins is a former member of UNESCO's World Commission on the Ethics of Science and Technology (COMEST) and serves on many science advisory boards.



Juan A. Blanco: Dr. Blanco studied Agricultural Engineering at the Public University of Navarra, Spain. He was awarded a Ph.D. in Forest Ecology from the Public University in 2004, for his examination of the influence of forest management on nutrient cycles in pine forests of the Pyrenees. He has published several papers and book chapters on this topic. In 2003, he also collaborated with the team from the Technical University of Oruro to study environmental issues in the Uru-Uru Lake, Bolivia. He then moved to Vancouver, where he is currently a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Forest Sciences, University of British Columbia. His work is centered on the use of ecological forest models for developing and assessing long-term sustainable forest management practices, a subject on which he has published several papers in international journals. He is currently collaborating in Canada, Spain, Cuba and China in research projects to assess the long-term sustainability of forest management with ecological models.



Brad Seely: Dr. Seely was awarded a Ph.D. in terrestrial ecology from the Department of Biology at Boston University in 1996. He then worked as a Postdoctoral Fellow with Hamish Kimmins in the Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation group at UBC, developing the FORECAST and LLEMS models. Presently, he is a Research Associate in the Department of Forest Sciences at UBC where he develops and tests forest ecosystem management models at multiple spatial scales. His specific interests lie in the development and application of process-based models of stand growth and development. He has also conducted research and developed models to examine the interactions between forest management, site productivity, hydrologic processes, carbon sequestration and climate change.



Clive Welham: Dr. Welham was awarded his B.Sc. (1983) and M.Sc. (1986) degrees from the University of Manitoba, and his Ph.D. (1993) from Simon Fraser University, in Vancouver. His academic career began with an emphasis on evolutionary ecology and ecological modeling. Following a Postdoctoral Fellowship in the Botany Department at UBC, he joined the Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation Group, in the Department of Forest Sciences, to which he still belongs. His work at UBC is principally concerned with forest ecosystem model development, testing and validation, at spatial scales from the individual tree to the landscape. Specific interests include ecosystem reclamation, carbon dynamics, and climate change. Clive also teaches a graduate level course in ecosystem modeling, and occasional undergraduate courses.



Kim Scoullar: Mr. Scoullar is a professional programmer with more than 35 years of experience developing code for ecosystem models. He was the main developer of the FORCYTE series of models commissioned under the Energy from the Forest (ENFOR) project by the Government of Canada. Mr. Scoullar has developed educational software (FORTOON) and software for forest management and research (FORECAST, LLEMS, FORCEE). He is also collaborating in the development of CALP-Forester.