Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programmes. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health in elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are: uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting; plausible ranges for population growth using biological models and epidemiological time series data; the financing of long term care programmes; the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures and forecasting cancer risks and risk factors.
