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El. knyga: From Trade Surplus To The Dispute Over The Exchange Rate: Quantitative Analysis Of Rmb Appreciation

(Beijing Normal Univ, China), (Beijing Normal Univ, China & Univ Of Western Ontario, Canada)
  • Formatas: 472 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 29-Feb-2016
  • Leidėjas: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9789814723978
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
From Trade Surplus To The Dispute Over The Exchange Rate: Quantitative Analysis Of Rmb AppreciationDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: 472 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 29-Feb-2016
  • Leidėjas: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9789814723978
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Since 2005, China has been accused of causing the trade deficit and manipulating the exchange rate. At the same time, there have been arguments against the RMB appreciation. The reason for this conflict is the lack of quantitative research or the lack of elaboration on many extremely important indicators.To correctly describe the industrial chain and value-added process around the world, it is necessary to identify data by using new methods and separating the processing trade from the non-processing trade based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data. This book establishes a Global Multi-department Computable General Equilibrium (GMCGE) model based on the continuous global input-output database. It focuses on the Computable General Equilibrium (CEG) model that constructs a consistent interaction mechanism within the economic system and fully reflects the general equilibrium characteristics and thus tries to avoid the limitations of the partial equilibrium model. It shows how the GMCEG framework can distinguish the processing trade from non-processing trade in the input-output data, and at the same time ensure the endogenous equilibrium of the social accounting matrix (SAM) after distinction.
Preface v
Chapter 1 Overestimated Trade Surplus 1(34)
1.1 Rapid Development of the Sino-U.S. Bilateral Trade
2(3)
1.2 Why Trade Deficit in U.S. Statistics is Higher than that in Chinese Statistics?
5(4)
1.3 Co-existence of Surplus and Deficit
9(4)
1.4 Repeated Calculation of Processing Trade in Customs Statistics
13(4)
1.5 Theoretical Model of the Value-added Approach
17(5)
1.6 Difference in Calculating China's Trade between the Customs Frontier Method and the Value-added Approach
22(11)
1.7 Keeping Pace with the Times and Reforming the Foreign Trade Statistical Method
33(2)
Chapter 2 On Trade Surplus from Property Rights 35(24)
2.1 Distinguishing between Capital Flow and Logistics in the International Trade
36(4)
2.2 Competitive and Non-competitive Input—Output Tables
40(2)
2.3 Shares of the Domestic and Foreign Capitals in Non-labor Compensation in Processing Trade
42(4)
2.4 Distinguishing Capital Flow by Country
46(9)
2.5 Sino-American Trade Surplus
55(4)
Chapter 3 Interpreting the Economic Scale of China 59(44)
3.1 Two Methods of Calculating the GDP
60(2)
3.2 Limitations of Calculating the GDP using the Atlas Method
62(5)
3.3 Advantages and Limitations of the PPP
67(3)
3.4 Distorted Proportion of the Service Industry
70(3)
3.5 Reasons for the Underestimation of the Service Industry
73(5)
3.6 Estimate of the Proportion of the Service Industry in the GDP of China
78(13)
3.7 Processing the Depth Coefficient Method for Estimating the GDP
91(2)
3.8 Avoiding the Quality Difference
93(1)
3.9 Value-Added in the Manufacturing Process
94(1)
3.10 Virtual Output Value of Raw Materials
94(4)
3.11 Processing Depth Coefficient
98(2)
3.12 The Bottom Line and the Possible Range of the GDP of China
100(3)
Chapter 4 Foreign Trade Dependence and Trade Weighted Method 103(28)
4.1 Debate Caused by Foreign Trade Imbalance
104(3)
4.2 Four Errors Affecting China's Foreign Trade Statistics
107(2)
4.3 Influence of Two GDP Statistical Methods on the FTD
109(4)
4.4 Proportion of the Current Account in the GDP
113(1)
4.5 International Comparison of Degree of Foreign Trade Imbalance
113(4)
4.6 Adjusting the Current Account According to Property Rights
117(1)
4.7 Adjusting the GDP according to the Proportion of the Service Industry
118(2)
4.8 Double Correction of the Import and Export Data
120(5)
4.9 International Comparison of China's FTD
125(6)
Chapter 5 The Standard in Judging the Exchange Rate 131(16)
5.1 Different Opinions on the Exchange Rate
132(1)
5.2 Basis for Judging the Exchange Rate
133(3)
5.3 Calculating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate According to Money Market and Import and Export Market Equilibrium
136(2)
5.4 Calculating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate According to Trade Equilibrium
138(2)
5.5 No Nash Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market
140(2)
5.6 Different Conclusions based on Different Methods
142(2)
5.7 Market: The Touchstone for Judging Distortion of Exchange Rate
144(3)
Chapter 6 Stabilizing the Currency and Manipulating the Exchange Rate 147(38)
6.1 Who Determines the Exchange Rate?
148(2)
6.2 Selection of the Exchange Rate System
150(3)
6.3 The Central Bank's Duty is to Stabilize the Value of Currency
153(6)
6.4 What is a Currency Manipulator?
159(6)
6.5 The RMB is in the Appreciation Channel
165(2)
6.6 Internal Contradiction between Price Stability and Exchange Rate
167(7)
6.7 Excessive Liquidity and the Money Lake
174(11)
Chapter 7 Origin and Development of the High Savings Rate 185(58)
7.1 China's High Savings Rate Causes Problems
186(2)
7.2 China's High Savings Rate
188(2)
7.3 Savings and Economic Growth Stage
190(3)
7.4 Three Parts of Total Savings: Household, Enterprise, and Government Savings
193(4)
7.5 Why is the Enterprise Savings Rate Remarkably High?
197(2)
7.6 Why is the Government Savings Rate Remarkably High?
199(8)
7.7 Causes of the High Household Savings Rate
207(12)
7.8 Is the Savings Rate Attributable to the High Housing Price?
219(5)
7.9 The First-generation Effect of Savings
224(5)
7.10 Empirical Study of the Savings Rate
229(11)
7.11 Never be Misled by Others to Exceed the Proper Limits in Correcting a Mistake
240(3)
Chapter 8 Computable General Equilibrium Model for Exchange Rate Research 243(20)
8.1 Compromise and Quantification
244(2)
8.2 Five Stages of the Mathematical Model
246(2)
8.3 Partial Equilibrium and General Equilibrium
248(2)
8.4 CGE Model Structure
250(6)
8.5 Avoiding the Double Account in Calculating Processing Trade
256(3)
8.6 The Database Reflecting the Valued-added Distribution in the Global Production Chain
259(1)
8.7 Use of the CGE Model to Study the Exchange Rate Adjustment
260(3)
Chapter 9 Effect of the Exchange Rate on Employment 263(42)
9.1 High Unemployment Rate: A Difficult Problem for the U S
264(2)
9.2 The Obama Government's Countermeasures to Increase Employment Opportunities
266(6)
9.3 Shifting the Target to Frame China
272(5)
9.4 Main Reasons for the High Unemployment Rate in the U.S.
277(2)
9.5 Analysis of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Employment from the Perspective of System Engineering
279(6)
9.6 Unemployment and the Industrial Transfer
285(5)
9.7 Different Effects on Different Industries
290(2)
9.8 Effect of the Exchange Rate Adjustment on the Unemployment Rate of Different Industries
292(2)
9.9 Effect of the Exchange Rate Adjustment on Employment in Processing Trade and General Trade
294(4)
9.10 Effect of the Exchange Rate Adjustment on the Employment of Industrial Departments with Different Science and Technology Contents
298(1)
9.11 Will the RMB Appreciation Reduce the U.S. Unemployment Rate?
299(6)
Chapter 10 The Impact of the Exchange Rate Adjustment on Import and Export 305(44)
10.1 The RMB Exchange Rate and the U.S. Trade Deficit
306(3)
10.2 Effect of the RMB Appreciation on the Import and Export Volumes of Different Economies
309(6)
10.3 Effect of the RMB Appreciation on General Trade and Processing Trade
315(6)
10.4 Effect of the RMB Appreciation on the Manufacturing Industries of Different Science and Technology Contents
321(7)
10.5 Three Groups of Competitors
328(14)
10.6 Ways to Narrow the U.S. Trade Deficit
342(2)
10.7 Is the International Trade Really Distorted?
344(5)
Chapter 11 Range and Path of the RMB Appreciation 349(12)
11.1 Path Choice for the RMB Appreciation
350(1)
11.2 Dynamic Simulation of the Effect of Different Exchange Rate Appreciation Ranges on China's Labor Market
351(4)
11.3 Dynamic Simulation of the Effect of Different Ranges of Appreciation on China's Imports and Exports
355(1)
11.4 Dynamic Simulation of the Effect of Different Ranges of Appreciation on China's Domestic Production
356(5)
Chapter 12 Economic Sanctions and Free Trade 361(68)
12.1 Origin and Evolution of the Trade War
363(14)
12.2 Means to Impose Economic Sanctions
377(2)
12.3 Probability of Success of Economic Sanctions
379(3)
12.4 Six Commandments of Trade War
382(12)
12.5 Cost of a Trade War
394(2)
12.6 Different Logics on Dealing with a Trade War
396(3)
12.7 CGE Model Simulating a Trade War
399(2)
12.8 Scenarios of a Trade War
401(1)
12.9 Impact of a Trade War on Global Trade
402(8)
12.10 Impact of a Trade War on GDP and Employment
410(3)
12.11 A Trade War is Not Good for Anyone
413(4)
12.12 Possibility of a Trade War between the U.S. and China
417(6)
12.13 China—U.S. Free Trade Agreement
423(6)
Chapter 13 The Debate is Far From Over 429(16)
13.1 Focus of Dispute on the RMB Exchange Rate
429(1)
13.2 Fictitious Foreign Trade Imbalance
430(4)
13.3 Stabilizing the Currency and Manipulating the Exchange Rate
434(2)
13.4 Origin, Advantages, and Disadvantages of High Savings Rate
436(2)
13.5 Impact of RMB Appreciation on Employment and Foreign Trade
438(4)
13.6 A Win—Win Free Trade Agreement is Better than a Lose—Lose Trade War
442(3)
References 445(8)
Index 453
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