This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States’ adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.
Preface
iii
Figures and Tables
vii
Summary
ix
Acknowledgments
xi
Abbreviations
xiii
Chapter One The Future of Warfare
1
(4)
Chapter Two The Failures of Forecasting the Future
5
(6)
Chapter Three Studying the Future Today
11
(6)
Definitions and Methodology
13
(4)
Chapter Four Depicting the Key Trends
17
(18)
Chapter Five Predicting the Future of Warfare
35
(34)
Who Fights? Fixed Adversaries; Allies in Flux
35
(8)
Where Will the United States Fight? Most Likely Versus Most Dangerous
43
(7)
What Will Future Conflict Look Like? Four Archetypes of Conflicts
50
(4)
How Will the United States Fight? Declining Quantitative and Qualitative Advantage
54
(8)
When and Why Will the United States Fight? Increasing Inability to Control Strategic Outcomes
62
(7)
Chapter Six Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Joint Force
69
(8)
Capability: Range, Precision, Information, and Automation
69
(2)
Capacity: "More"
71
(1)
Posture: Few Gains to Be Realized by Drawing Down in the Middle East
72
(1)
Strategy: The Growing Need for Agility at All Levels
73
(1)
Policy: Increasing Resilience on the Home Front
74
(1)
The Future of Warfare: A Deepening Series of Strategic Dilemmas
