| Preface |
|
iii | |
|
|
|
vii | |
| Summary |
|
ix | |
| Acknowledgments |
|
xiii | |
| Abbreviations |
|
xv | |
|
Chapter One Global Political Trends |
|
|
1 | (4) |
|
Trend Selection and Methodology |
|
|
2 | (3) |
|
Chapter Two Trend 1 U.S. Polarization and Retrenchment |
|
|
5 | (12) |
|
Context: U.S. Centrality in Geopolitics |
|
|
5 | (1) |
|
Historical Trend: Increasing U.S. Polarization of Foreign Policy |
|
|
6 | (5) |
|
Future Projection: Gridlock, Disillusionment, and Isolationism |
|
|
11 | (3) |
|
Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Future of Warfare |
|
|
14 | (3) |
|
Chapter Three Trend 2 China's Rise |
|
|
17 | (12) |
|
Context: China's Priorities Include Growing Military Ambition |
|
|
17 | (2) |
|
Historical Trend: Not So Peaceful |
|
|
19 | (5) |
|
Future Projection: Increasing Domestic Pressure; Expanding Strategic Periphery |
|
|
24 | (3) |
|
Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Future of Warfare |
|
|
27 | (2) |
|
Chapter Four Trend 3 Asia's Reassessment |
|
|
29 | (14) |
|
Context: Ripe for Rivalry? |
|
|
29 | (1) |
|
Historical Trend: Balancing, Hedging, and Rising Tensions |
|
|
30 | (8) |
|
Future Projection: A 19th-Century Powder Keg? |
|
|
38 | (3) |
|
Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Future of Warfare |
|
|
41 | (2) |
|
Chapter Five Trend 4 The Emergence of a Revanchist Russia |
|
|
43 | (12) |
|
Context: Russia's Priorities Include Pursuing a Polycentric World |
|
|
43 | (2) |
|
Historical Trend: Russia's Use of Force |
|
|
45 | (5) |
|
Future Projection: The Return of a More Assertive Russia |
|
|
50 | (2) |
|
Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Future of Warfare |
|
|
52 | (3) |
|
Chapter Six Trend 5 Upheaval in Europe |
|
|
55 | (16) |
|
Context: An Uncertain Future for Europe |
|
|
56 | (1) |
|
Historical Trend: Migration, Terrorism, Political Turmoil, and Russia |
|
|
57 | (6) |
|
Future Projection: Increasingly Destabilized, Divided, and Inward-Looking Europe |
|
|
63 | (1) |
|
Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Future of Warfare |
|
|
64 | (7) |
|
Chapter Seven Trend 6 Turmoil in the Islamic World |
|
|
71 | (12) |
|
Context: Sectarian and Ethnic Conflict Occurs After Authoritarian Collapse |
|
|
71 | (1) |
|
Historical Trend: Descent into Chaos |
|
|
72 | (3) |
|
Future Projection: Terrorism, Instability, and Regional Conflict |
|
|
75 | (5) |
|
Implications for the U.S. Air Force and the Future of Warfare |
|
|
80 | (3) |
|
Chapter Eight Conclusions |
|
|
83 | (4) |
| References |
|
87 | |
