Preface |
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xii | |
Invitation to explore |
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xii | |
What will you learn? |
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xvi | |
What are the components of the book? |
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xvii | |
What is the structure of the book? |
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xviii | |
Who is the book for and how to use it? |
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xx | |
Before you start |
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xxii | |
References |
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xxii | |
Acknowledgments |
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xxiii | |
About the companion website |
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xxiv | |
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Introducing A Durable Product In A New Market |
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1 | (36) |
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1 | (1) |
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1.2 Your briefing for the business challenge in Plutonia |
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2 | (13) |
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1.3 Managing New Tel's new business in the simplest scenario: business as usual |
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15 | (3) |
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1.4 A competitive scenario: compete for customers |
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18 | (9) |
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1.5 Outcomes of both scenarios in terms of key performance indicators |
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27 | (3) |
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30 | (1) |
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1.7 Questions and challenges |
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30 | (7) |
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31 | (6) |
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Capturing Customer Dynamics Driven By Diffusion |
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37 | (84) |
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37 | (1) |
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2.2 Diffusion: a regular dynamic in social systems |
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38 | (34) |
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38 | (1) |
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2.2.2 A Story about selling mobile phones |
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39 | (9) |
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2.2.3 Diffusion is based on a network of variables and causal relationships |
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48 | (9) |
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2.2.4 Causal diagrams reveal the causal structure |
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57 | (15) |
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2.3 Structure and dynamics of new product diffusion |
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72 | (40) |
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2.3.1 Your first simulation model |
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72 | (7) |
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79 | (3) |
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2.3.3 Reinforcing feedback and exponential growth |
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82 | (9) |
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2.3.4 Balancing feedback and goal-seeking behaviour |
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91 | (13) |
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2.3.5 When the two feedback loops are interconnected |
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104 | (8) |
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112 | (1) |
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2.5 Questions and challenges |
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113 | (8) |
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115 | (6) |
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Effects Of A Limited Product Life Cycle Duration |
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121 | (43) |
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121 | (1) |
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3.2 The concept of life cycle duration and its effects on customer dynamics |
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122 | (26) |
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3.3 Tracking Accumulated purchases and Accumulated customer-months |
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148 | (6) |
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148 | (4) |
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152 | (2) |
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154 | (1) |
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3.5 Questions and challenges |
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155 | (9) |
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The Effect Of Advertising Spending |
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164 | (44) |
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164 | (1) |
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4.2 Turning the attention of Potential customers to a product |
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164 | (1) |
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4.3 The effect of fixed advertising spending |
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165 | (14) |
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165 | (4) |
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169 | (10) |
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4.4 The effect of constant advertising spending with a limited life cycle duration |
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179 | (7) |
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179 | (1) |
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179 | (7) |
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4.5 The effect of advertising for one month |
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186 | (9) |
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186 | (4) |
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190 | (5) |
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4.6 How many Current customers are won by winning one new customer? |
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195 | (5) |
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195 | (1) |
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196 | (4) |
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200 | (1) |
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4.8 Questions and challenges |
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201 | (7) |
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202 | (6) |
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208 | (36) |
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208 | (1) |
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5.2 The structure of revenues |
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209 | (17) |
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5.2.1 The direct influence of prices on revenues |
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209 | (3) |
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5.2.2 The indirect influence of price and life cycle duration on Potential customers' purchasing decisions |
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212 | (9) |
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5.2.3 How the effective monthly price affects new customers and total revenues |
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221 | (5) |
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5.3 The structure of costs |
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226 | (6) |
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5.3.1 The components of total costs |
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226 | (2) |
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5.3.2 Reducing Service costs by improving processes |
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228 | (4) |
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5.4 Behaviour: customer dynamics and the accumulation of profits |
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232 | (8) |
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240 | (1) |
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5.6 Questions and challenges |
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241 | (3) |
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242 | (2) |
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Analysing The Market Situation With The Simulation |
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244 | (56) |
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244 | (1) |
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6.2 Planning the search for the highest possible Accumulated profits |
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245 | (10) |
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6.3 Searching for optimal values for the decision variables |
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255 | (28) |
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6.3.1 Searching for the best subscription rate given a constant sales price and life cycle duration |
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255 | (4) |
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6.3.2 Searching the optimal sales price given a constant subscription rate and life cycle duration |
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259 | (4) |
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6.3.3 Searching the optimal life cycle duration given a constant sales price and subscription rate |
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263 | (3) |
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6.3.4 Searching for the optimal combination of sales price, subscription rate, and life cycle duration |
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266 | (5) |
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6.3.5 Searching for the optimal pattern of monthly advertising spending |
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271 | (5) |
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6.3.6 Searching for the optimal pattern of monthly process improvement spending |
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276 | (4) |
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6.3.7 Combining advertising spending and process improvement spending |
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280 | (3) |
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6.4 Decisions, behaviours, and outcomes in the best case monopoly |
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283 | (6) |
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6.5 Setting your objectives |
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289 | (2) |
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291 | (1) |
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6.7 Questions and challenges |
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292 | (8) |
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292 | (8) |
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Market Dynamics With A Competitor |
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300 | (77) |
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300 | (1) |
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7.2 Competing for Potential customers: rivalry type I |
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301 | (20) |
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301 | (4) |
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305 | (5) |
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7.2.2.1 First scenario for rivalry type I: rivalry I through price advantage (RIPA) |
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310 | (5) |
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7.2.2.2 Second scenario for rivalry type I: Rivalry I by more advertising (RIMA) |
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315 | (6) |
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7.3 Competing for Current customers: rivalry type II |
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321 | (10) |
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321 | (5) |
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326 | (5) |
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7.4 Competing for Potential and Current customers |
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331 | (37) |
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7.4.1 The causal structure of diffusion with a competitor |
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331 | (20) |
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7.4.2 Evaluating four exemplary policies |
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351 | (1) |
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7.4.2.1 Experiment COOP 1: NewTel collaborates increasing Sales price, Subscription rate, and Life cycle duration |
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351 | (7) |
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7.4.2.2 Experiment COMP 1: NewTel competes reducing the Sales price |
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358 | (2) |
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7.4.2.3 Experiment COMP 2: NewTel competes reducing the Subscription rate |
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360 | (4) |
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7.4.2.4 Experiment COOP 2: NewTel and RivTel cooperate simultaneously increasing the Sales price, Subscription rate, and Life cycle duration |
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364 | (4) |
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7.5 Reflecting on rivalry |
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368 | (4) |
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372 | (2) |
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7.7 Epilogue: your debriefing |
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374 | (1) |
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7.8 Questions and challenges |
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375 | (2) |
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376 | (1) |
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Relaxing Assumptions And Adding Relevant Aspects Of Reality |
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377 | (28) |
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377 | (3) |
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8.2 The population is not constant |
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380 | (1) |
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8.3 There are not only Potential customers and Current customers |
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381 | (1) |
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8.4 Current Customers care about Quality |
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382 | (2) |
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8.5 Advertising influences word-of-mouth and Customers switching |
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384 | (2) |
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8.6 Mobile phones are not contracts are not customers |
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386 | (1) |
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8.7 More frequent decisions and a longer time horizon |
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387 | (1) |
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8.8 Contracts do not change retrospectively |
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388 | (8) |
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8.9 The number of competitors is higher and varies |
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396 | (1) |
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8.10 Nonlinear relationships replace causal structure |
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397 | (2) |
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8.11 The harmonic development of demand and supply capacity: a new book |
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399 | (3) |
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402 | (3) |
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404 | (1) |
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System Dynamics: A Methodology For Model-Based Management |
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405 | (27) |
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405 | (1) |
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9.2 Your mental model of growth from diffusion |
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406 | (4) |
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9.3 System dynamics modelling |
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410 | (9) |
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9.3.1 The manager as modeller |
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411 | (2) |
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9.3.2 Basic assumptions of system dynamics |
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413 | (1) |
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9.3.2.1 Feedback loops as the basic building block of social and natural systems |
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413 | (3) |
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9.3.2.2 Changes over time in interdependent resource stocks |
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416 | (1) |
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9.3.3 The system dynamics modelling process |
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416 | (3) |
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9.4 System dynamics competence |
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419 | (10) |
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9.4.1 Skill 1: system dynamics language |
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421 | (1) |
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9.4.2 Skill 2: dynamic reasoning |
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422 | (1) |
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9.4.3 Skill 3: model analysis |
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423 | (1) |
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9.4.4 Skill 4: project initialization |
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424 | (1) |
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9.4.5 Skill 5: model creation |
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424 | (2) |
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9.4.6 Skill 6: model validation |
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426 | (1) |
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9.4.7 Skill 7: policy evaluation and design |
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427 | (1) |
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9.4.8 Your stage of competence development |
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428 | (1) |
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9.5 Learning and applying system dynamics |
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429 | (3) |
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430 | (2) |
Abbreviations |
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432 | (1) |
Index of Principles |
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433 | (1) |
Index of Guidelines |
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434 | (2) |
Index of Management Insights |
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436 | (2) |
Index of Systems Insights |
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438 | (2) |
Index of Toolboxes |
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440 | (2) |
Index of DIYs |
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442 | (3) |
Index |
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445 | |