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El. knyga: Growth Dynamics in New Markets - Improving Decision Making through Model-Based Management: Improving Decision Making through Model-Based Management [Wiley Online]

  • Formatas: 472 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 18-May-2018
  • Leidėjas: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • ISBN-10: 1119118301
  • ISBN-13: 9781119118305
  • Wiley Online
  • Kaina: 68,72 €*
  • * this price gives unlimited concurrent access for unlimited time
  • Formatas: 472 pages
  • Išleidimo metai: 18-May-2018
  • Leidėjas: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • ISBN-10: 1119118301
  • ISBN-13: 9781119118305

An innovative simulation-based approach for strategic decision making when launching new products

Growth Dynamics in New Markets contains a dynamic case study and simulations that reveal what it takes to successfully introduce a product into a new market. Written by experts in the field, the text and companion website include a compelling simulation game and a variety of simulation models. Using the simulation game and computer models, readers are challenged to design and put in place a strategy about product introduction and competitive behavior. The simulation models build on each other to help to arrive at a comprehensive understanding of product uptake as well as market development and competitive dynamics. The authors present different approaches for enhancing the models and offer guidance for applying them to real-world problems.

This groundbreaking text clearly shows how to develop maps of dynamic systems, formulate candidate policies and evaluate them based on the simulations. It also reveals how to use computer simulations to understand what decisions could and should be made, when to make them and how intensive they should be. The authors present an interactive approach that:

  • Contains an innovative combination of a case study, simulation game and simulation models for developing the skills to introduce a product to the marketplace
  • Offers targeted questions that help to enhance the understanding of the material presented
  • Presents detailed answers and solutions to a number or real-world business challenges
  • Features video tutorials that explain how the simulation experiments are implemented and interpreted
  • Aids in the development an action-oriented, pragmatic understanding of the underlying forces in business

Designed for students of business administration, management, industrial engineering, informatics, engineering, and public policy, Growth Dynamics in New Markets offers an innovative approach that combines the practice of dynamic reasoning and the use of simulation to design and test possible policies. 

Preface xii
Invitation to explore xii
What will you learn? xvi
What are the components of the book? xvii
What is the structure of the book? xviii
Who is the book for and how to use it? xx
Before you start xxii
References xxii
Acknowledgments xxiii
About the companion website xxiv
Introducing A Durable Product In A New Market
1(36)
1.1 Introduction
1(1)
1.2 Your briefing for the business challenge in Plutonia
2(13)
1.3 Managing New Tel's new business in the simplest scenario: business as usual
15(3)
1.4 A competitive scenario: compete for customers
18(9)
1.5 Outcomes of both scenarios in terms of key performance indicators
27(3)
1.6
Chapter summary
30(1)
1.7 Questions and challenges
30(7)
References
31(6)
Capturing Customer Dynamics Driven By Diffusion
37(84)
2.1 Introduction
37(1)
2.2 Diffusion: a regular dynamic in social systems
38(34)
2.2.1 `Going viral'
38(1)
2.2.2 A Story about selling mobile phones
39(9)
2.2.3 Diffusion is based on a network of variables and causal relationships
48(9)
2.2.4 Causal diagrams reveal the causal structure
57(15)
2.3 Structure and dynamics of new product diffusion
72(40)
2.3.1 Your first simulation model
72(7)
2.3.2 Feedback loops
79(3)
2.3.3 Reinforcing feedback and exponential growth
82(9)
2.3.4 Balancing feedback and goal-seeking behaviour
91(13)
2.3.5 When the two feedback loops are interconnected
104(8)
2.4
Chapter summary
112(1)
2.5 Questions and challenges
113(8)
References
115(6)
Effects Of A Limited Product Life Cycle Duration
121(43)
3.1 Introduction
121(1)
3.2 The concept of life cycle duration and its effects on customer dynamics
122(26)
3.3 Tracking Accumulated purchases and Accumulated customer-months
148(6)
3.3.1 Structure
148(4)
3.3.2 Behaviour
152(2)
3.4
Chapter summary
154(1)
3.5 Questions and challenges
155(9)
The Effect Of Advertising Spending
164(44)
4.1 Introduction
164(1)
4.2 Turning the attention of Potential customers to a product
164(1)
4.3 The effect of fixed advertising spending
165(14)
4.3.1 Structure
165(4)
4.3.2 Behaviour
169(10)
4.4 The effect of constant advertising spending with a limited life cycle duration
179(7)
4.4.1 Structure
179(1)
4.4.2 Behaviour
179(7)
4.5 The effect of advertising for one month
186(9)
4.5.1 Structure
186(4)
4.5.2 Behaviour
190(5)
4.6 How many Current customers are won by winning one new customer?
195(5)
4.6.1 Structure
195(1)
4.6.2 Behaviour
196(4)
4.7
Chapter summary
200(1)
4.8 Questions and challenges
201(7)
References
202(6)
Financial Resources
208(36)
5.1 Introduction
208(1)
5.2 The structure of revenues
209(17)
5.2.1 The direct influence of prices on revenues
209(3)
5.2.2 The indirect influence of price and life cycle duration on Potential customers' purchasing decisions
212(9)
5.2.3 How the effective monthly price affects new customers and total revenues
221(5)
5.3 The structure of costs
226(6)
5.3.1 The components of total costs
226(2)
5.3.2 Reducing Service costs by improving processes
228(4)
5.4 Behaviour: customer dynamics and the accumulation of profits
232(8)
5.5
Chapter summary
240(1)
5.6 Questions and challenges
241(3)
References
242(2)
Analysing The Market Situation With The Simulation
244(56)
6.1 Introduction
244(1)
6.2 Planning the search for the highest possible Accumulated profits
245(10)
6.3 Searching for optimal values for the decision variables
255(28)
6.3.1 Searching for the best subscription rate given a constant sales price and life cycle duration
255(4)
6.3.2 Searching the optimal sales price given a constant subscription rate and life cycle duration
259(4)
6.3.3 Searching the optimal life cycle duration given a constant sales price and subscription rate
263(3)
6.3.4 Searching for the optimal combination of sales price, subscription rate, and life cycle duration
266(5)
6.3.5 Searching for the optimal pattern of monthly advertising spending
271(5)
6.3.6 Searching for the optimal pattern of monthly process improvement spending
276(4)
6.3.7 Combining advertising spending and process improvement spending
280(3)
6.4 Decisions, behaviours, and outcomes in the best case monopoly
283(6)
6.5 Setting your objectives
289(2)
6.6
Chapter summary
291(1)
6.7 Questions and challenges
292(8)
References
292(8)
Market Dynamics With A Competitor
300(77)
7.1 Introduction
300(1)
7.2 Competing for Potential customers: rivalry type I
301(20)
7.2.1 Structure
301(4)
7.2.2 Behaviour
305(5)
7.2.2.1 First scenario for rivalry type I: rivalry I through price advantage (RIPA)
310(5)
7.2.2.2 Second scenario for rivalry type I: Rivalry I by more advertising (RIMA)
315(6)
7.3 Competing for Current customers: rivalry type II
321(10)
7.3.1 Structure
321(5)
7.3.2 Behaviour
326(5)
7.4 Competing for Potential and Current customers
331(37)
7.4.1 The causal structure of diffusion with a competitor
331(20)
7.4.2 Evaluating four exemplary policies
351(1)
7.4.2.1 Experiment COOP 1: NewTel collaborates increasing Sales price, Subscription rate, and Life cycle duration
351(7)
7.4.2.2 Experiment COMP 1: NewTel competes reducing the Sales price
358(2)
7.4.2.3 Experiment COMP 2: NewTel competes reducing the Subscription rate
360(4)
7.4.2.4 Experiment COOP 2: NewTel and RivTel cooperate simultaneously increasing the Sales price, Subscription rate, and Life cycle duration
364(4)
7.5 Reflecting on rivalry
368(4)
7.6
Chapter summary
372(2)
7.7 Epilogue: your debriefing
374(1)
7.8 Questions and challenges
375(2)
References
376(1)
Relaxing Assumptions And Adding Relevant Aspects Of Reality
377(28)
8.1 Introduction
377(3)
8.2 The population is not constant
380(1)
8.3 There are not only Potential customers and Current customers
381(1)
8.4 Current Customers care about Quality
382(2)
8.5 Advertising influences word-of-mouth and Customers switching
384(2)
8.6 Mobile phones are not contracts are not customers
386(1)
8.7 More frequent decisions and a longer time horizon
387(1)
8.8 Contracts do not change retrospectively
388(8)
8.9 The number of competitors is higher and varies
396(1)
8.10 Nonlinear relationships replace causal structure
397(2)
8.11 The harmonic development of demand and supply capacity: a new book
399(3)
8.12
Chapter summary
402(3)
References
404(1)
System Dynamics: A Methodology For Model-Based Management
405(27)
9.1 Introduction
405(1)
9.2 Your mental model of growth from diffusion
406(4)
9.3 System dynamics modelling
410(9)
9.3.1 The manager as modeller
411(2)
9.3.2 Basic assumptions of system dynamics
413(1)
9.3.2.1 Feedback loops as the basic building block of social and natural systems
413(3)
9.3.2.2 Changes over time in interdependent resource stocks
416(1)
9.3.3 The system dynamics modelling process
416(3)
9.4 System dynamics competence
419(10)
9.4.1 Skill 1: system dynamics language
421(1)
9.4.2 Skill 2: dynamic reasoning
422(1)
9.4.3 Skill 3: model analysis
423(1)
9.4.4 Skill 4: project initialization
424(1)
9.4.5 Skill 5: model creation
424(2)
9.4.6 Skill 6: model validation
426(1)
9.4.7 Skill 7: policy evaluation and design
427(1)
9.4.8 Your stage of competence development
428(1)
9.5 Learning and applying system dynamics
429(3)
References
430(2)
Abbreviations 432(1)
Index of Principles 433(1)
Index of Guidelines 434(2)
Index of Management Insights 436(2)
Index of Systems Insights 438(2)
Index of Toolboxes 440(2)
Index of DIYs 442(3)
Index 445
Martin FG. Schaffernicht, Facultad de Economķa y Negocios, Universidad de Talca, Chile.

Stefan N. Groesser, School of Engineering, Bern University of Applied Sciences and Institute of Management, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland.