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El. knyga: Guide for Making Acute Risk Decisions

  • Formatas: PDF+DRM
  • Išleidimo metai: 15-Oct-2019
  • Leidėjas: Wiley-AIChE
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781119669050
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Guide for Making Acute Risk DecisionsDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: PDF+DRM
  • Išleidimo metai: 15-Oct-2019
  • Leidėjas: Wiley-AIChE
  • Kalba: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781119669050
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This book presents a guidance on a large range of decision aids for risk analysts and decision makers in industry so that vital decisions can be made in a more consistent, logical, and rigorous manner. It provide good industry practices on how risk decision making is conducted in the chemical industry from many risk information sources as well as all the elements that need to be addressed to ensure good decisions are being made.

Topics Include: Identifying Risk Decisions, A Risk Decision Strategy for Process Safety, Case Studies in Risk Decision Making Failures, Guidance on Selecting Decision Aids, Templates for Decision Making in Risk-Based Process Safety, Understanding Process Hazards & Worst Possible Consequences, Management of Change as an Exercise in Risk Identification, Inherently Safer Design as an Exercise in Risk Tradeoff Analysis, Using LOPA and Risk Matrices in Risk Decisions, Using CPQRA and Safety Risk Criteria in Risk Decisions, Group Decision Making, Avoiding Decision Traps, Documentation of Process Safety Risk Decisions
Contents v
List of Tables
xi
List of Figures
xiii
Acronyms and Abbreviations xv
Glossary xix
Acknowledgements xxxi
Preface xxxiii
Introduction 35(12)
1.1 History of Approaches to Process Safety Management
35(1)
1.2 The Paradigm of Risk-Based Process Safety Management
36(4)
1.2.1 Risk Based Process Safety (RBPS) Management
36(3)
1.2.2 Risk Decisions Characteristics
39(1)
1.3 A Risk Decision Making Method
40(1)
1.4 Road Map and Relationship of this Book with Other Material
41(2)
1.5 Risk Decisions during Process Life Cycle
43(1)
1.6 Pros and cons
44(1)
1.7 Summary
44(3)
Key Concepts in Risk Management
47(16)
2.1 Risk Management Process
47(1)
2.2 Risk Identification - Risk Scenario
47(2)
2.2.1 Risk Identification
49(1)
2.3 Risk Analysis - Consequences and Frequency
49(7)
2.3.1 Consequences and Impacts
50(1)
2.3.2 Frequency
50(1)
2.3.3 Risk Estimation
51(5)
2.4 Risk Evaluation
56(6)
2.4.1 Decision criteria
56(3)
2.4.2 Qualitative, Semi-Quantitative and Quantitative Risk Criteria
59(2)
2.4.3 Risk Reduction Factor
61(1)
2.5 Summary
62(1)
Understanding Process Hazards, Consequences and Risks
63(16)
3.1 Process Hazards
63(10)
3.1.1 Acute Toxicity
63(4)
3.1.2 Flammability and Explosivity
67(3)
3.1.3 Chemical Reactivity
70(2)
3.1.4 Significant or Large Environmental Release Hazards
72(1)
3.1.5 Other Process Hazards
72(1)
3.2 Risk Identification
73(1)
3.3 Consequences and Impacts
73(1)
3.4 Frequency
74(2)
3.5 Risk
76(3)
Risk Decisions and Strategies
79(16)
4.1 Objectives and attributes
79(2)
4.1.1 Objectives
79(1)
4.1.2 Attributes
79(2)
4.2 Process Life Cycle and Alternatives
81(1)
4.3 The Decision Process
82(2)
4.3.1 Define the Problem
82(1)
4.3.2 Evaluate the Baseline Risk
83(1)
4.3.3 Identify the Alternatives
83(1)
4.3.4 Screen the Alternatives
84(1)
4.3.5 Make the Decision
84(1)
4.4 Objectives and Outcomes
84(1)
4.5 Tradeoffs
85(2)
4.6 Uncertainty
87(3)
4.7 Risk Tolerance
90(1)
4.8 Linked Decisions
91(1)
4.9 Decision trees
92(3)
Decision Making
95(22)
5.1 Defining the Decision Problem
95(2)
5.1.1 Types of Decisions
95(2)
5.2 Selecting a Decision Tool
97(4)
5.2.1 Progression of Risk Analysis Tools
97(1)
5.2.2 Factors in Decision Tool Selection
98(3)
5.3 Assembling the Appropriate Assessment Resources
101(4)
5.3.1 Team Members
101(3)
5.3.2 Opening Meeting
104(1)
5.3.2 Tools/Methods
104(1)
5.3.3 Time
105(1)
5.4 Define decision criteria
105(2)
5.4.1 Process Safety Risk Criteria
105(2)
5.4.2 Other Criteria
107(1)
5.5 Making the decision
107(7)
5.5.1 Characteristics of Decision Aids
107(1)
5.5.2 Appling the Decision Tools, Aids, and Criteria
108(3)
5.5.3 Recognizing and Dealing with Uncertainties
111(2)
5.5.4 Recognizing the Need to Escalate the Decision
113(1)
5.6 Finalizing decision and the approval process
114(1)
5.7 Communicating, Documenting, and implementing the Decision
114(2)
5.7 Summary
116(1)
Potential Decision Traps
117(14)
6.1 Introduction
117(1)
6.2 Anchoring Trap
117(2)
6.2.1 Anchoring Trap Example, Titanic
118(1)
6.2.2 Countering the Anchoring Trap
118(1)
6.3 Status-Quo Trap
119(1)
6.3.1 Status Quo Examples
119(1)
6.3.2 Countering the Status-Quo Trap
120(1)
6.4 Sunk-cost and escalation of commitment trap
120(1)
6.4.1 Countering the Sunk-Cost Trap
121(1)
6.5 Confirming-Evidence Trap
121(1)
6.5.1 Countering the Confirming Evidence Trap
122(1)
6.6 Framing Trap
122(1)
6.6.1 Framing Example
123(1)
6.6.2 Countering the Framing Trap
123(1)
6.7 Estimating and Forecasting Trap
123(5)
6.7.1 Overconfidence
123(3)
6.7.2 Prudence
126(1)
6.7.3 Recallability
127(1)
6.7.4 Countering Estimating and Forecasting Traps
127(1)
6.8 Groupthink Trap
128(1)
6.8.1 Groupthink Example, Flixborough, UK Explosion
128(1)
6.8.2 Countering the Groupthink Trap
128(1)
6.9 Summary
129(2)
Inherently Safer Design
131(8)
7.1 Introduction to inherently safer design
131(1)
7.2 Inherently Safer Design Strategies
131(1)
7.3 Hierarchy of Risk Management Controls
132(1)
7.4 ISD examples to illustrate decision Process
133(5)
7.4.1 Example with minimization
135(1)
7.4.2 Example with moderation
136(1)
7.4.3 Example with simplification
137(1)
7.4.3 Other tradeoffs
137(1)
Make versus buy
138(1)
Substitution
138(1)
7.5 Summary
138(1)
Management of Change
139(12)
8.1 Introduction
139(4)
8.2 Decision Approval level
143(1)
8.3 Examples of Decision Process Applied to Changes
144(6)
8.3.1 Equipment Change
144(1)
8.3.2 Procedural Change
145(1)
8.3.3 Process Parameter Change
146(1)
8.3.4 Organizational Change
147(1)
8.3.5 Raw Material Change
148(1)
8.3.6 Vendor Change
149(1)
8.4 Summary
150(1)
Using LOPA and Risk Matrices in Risk Decisions
151(22)
9.1 Introduction
151(1)
9.2 Risk Matrices
151(4)
9.2.1 Risk Matrix Format
152(3)
9.3 Layer of Protection Analysis
155(4)
9.3.1 Independent Protection Layers
158(1)
9.3.2 LOPA Format
159(1)
9.4 Phosgene Handling Process for Risk Decision Example
159(5)
9.4.1 Description
159(2)
9.4.2 Risk Matrix for Phosgene Handling Example
161(3)
9.5 Phosgene Example Decision Process Using Risk Matrix
164(1)
9.6 Decision Process for Phosgene Example Using LOPA
165(7)
9.7 Summary
172(1)
Using QRA and Safety Risk Criteria in Risk Decisions
173(24)
10.1 Introduction to CPQRA
173(6)
10.1.1 Calculate Frequencies
173(5)
10.1.2 Calculate Consequences
178(1)
10.1.3 Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)
179(1)
10.2 Safety Risk Criteria
179(6)
10.2.1 Scope of Risk Criteria
179(1)
10.2.2 Individual and Societal Risk
180(4)
10.2.3 Continual Improvement
184(1)
10.3 High Consequence Low Probability (HCLP) Events
185(3)
10.4 Examples
188(7)
10.4.1 Comparing Design Options: Bromine Handling Facility
188(4)
10.4.2 Compliance and Continual Improvement: Organic Acid Vent System
192(1)
10.4.3 Special Case: The Domino Effect
193(2)
10.5 Summary
195(2)
Decision Implementation
197(6)
11.1 Introduction
197(1)
11.2 Implementation
197(1)
11.3 Documentation
197(3)
11.3.1 Importance of a decision document
197(1)
11.3.2 Writing recommendations
197(1)
11.3.3 Advice of legal counsel
198(1)
11.3.4 Contents of the decision document
199(1)
11.3.5 Retention of the decision document
199(1)
11.4 Revalidation
200(1)
11.4.1 Time based
200(1)
11.4.2 Situation based
200(1)
11.5 Summary
201(2)
Summary and Lessons
203(8)
12.1 Introduction
203(1)
12.2 Case Studies in Risk: Decision Making Failures
203(4)
12.2.1 Failure to Define the Problem
203(1)
12.2.2 Failure to Establish Baseline Risk and Identify Alternatives
204(1)
12.2.3 Make the Decision - Failure to consider tradeoffs
205(1)
12.2.4 Make the Decision - Failure to understand uncertainty
206(1)
12.2.5 Make the Decision - Failure to do risk identification and Failure to probe risk tolerance
206(1)
12.2.6 Make the Decision - Failure to recognize linked decisions
207(1)
12.3 Lessons and Summary
207(4)
References 211(8)
Index 219
The Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) was founded in 1985 to develop technology and management practices that mitigate or eliminate chemical process accidents. Since that time, CCPS has published more than 100 books and held dozens of international conferences, each representing the most advanced thinking in process safety. CCPS is supported by the contributions and voluntary participation of more than 160 companies globally. CCPS is also the world's largest provider of undergraduate engineering curriculum materials through its SACHE program, with more than 160 universities around the world participating.
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