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El. knyga: J.M. Keynes and the History of Probability: The Influence of Locke, Leibniz, and Hume

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John Maynard Keynes is best known for his contributions to economics, yet he spent nearly two decades exploring the concept of probability. His extensive work culminated in the Treatise on Probability (1921), where he developed a unique notion of probability that continues to divide scholars regarding its relevance to economic theory.

This book delves into the connections between Keynes's ideas on probability and those of early Enlightenment philosophers, such as Locke, Leibniz and Hume, who worked on probability before mathematicians claimed ownership over the subject. These authors framed probability as a substitute for knowledge when it is not available. Keynes extended these ideas and engaged directly with Hume on inductive reasoning, placing his concept of probability within a broader philosophical tradition. By tracing these Enlightenment roots, the book provides deeper insight into Keynes's understanding of probability, clarifying some of the key differences with the subjective approach due to Ramsey and De Finetti. It also summarises the aspects on which probability theory and its corresponding notion of uncertainty are crucial for Keynes' economic thought, particularly in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

This book is addressed to readers interested in the philosophy of probability and offers economists a fuller understanding of Keynes’s intellectual framework.



John Maynard Keynes is best known for his contributions to economics, yet he spent nearly two decades exploring the concept of probability. His extensive work culminated in the Treatise on Probability (1921), where he developed a unique notion of probability that continues to divide scholars regarding its relevance to economic theory.

1. Introduction and plan of the work
2. A brief history of probability
from Pascal to Keyness time.
3. Probability theory in early Enlightenment
philosophy.
4. Keyness historical retrospect on probability
5. Keyness
theory of probability revisited in the light of the early Enlightenment
6.
Keynes on induction and statistical inference
7. Probability and uncertainty
in economic theory. From the Treatise to the General Theory Index
Francisco Javier Aristimuńo is Professor of History of Economic Thought and Statistics at the University of Rio Negro, Argentina. He earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires, focusing his research on the relationship between Keyness concept of probability and early Enlightenment thought.
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