List of tables |
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viii | |
List of figures |
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ix | |
Acknowledgments |
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x | |
Online appendices |
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xi | |
1 Leaders |
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1 | (11) |
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4 | (1) |
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4 | (1) |
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1.3 Leaders in the study of international politics |
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5 | (6) |
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1.3.1 Is war costly for leaders? |
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7 | (4) |
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11 | (1) |
2 Why and when do leaders fight? |
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12 | (34) |
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2.1 How leaders are removed from office |
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13 | (22) |
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2.1.1 Explaining the forcible removal from office |
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16 | (2) |
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2.1.2 Fighting and gambling for survival |
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18 | (14) |
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2.1.3 International conflict and regular removals |
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32 | (3) |
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2.2 Competing leader-level explanations of international conflict |
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35 | (9) |
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2.2.1 In- and out-group bias |
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35 | (2) |
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37 | (3) |
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40 | (2) |
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42 | (2) |
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44 | (2) |
3 International conflict and the fate of leaders |
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46 | (45) |
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46 | (3) |
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3.2 The manner and consequences of losing office |
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49 | (12) |
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3.2.1 International conflict and the fate of leaders |
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54 | (7) |
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3.3 Competing risks: regular and forcible removals |
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61 | (7) |
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3.3.1 Testing the hypotheses |
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62 | (6) |
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3.4 Under what conditions? |
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68 | (20) |
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3.4.1 Conflict and domestic political institutions |
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68 | (6) |
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3.4.2 Conflict and domestic political unrest |
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74 | (5) |
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3.4.3 Conflict and economic development |
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79 | (5) |
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3.4.4 Conflict and economic growth |
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84 | (3) |
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87 | (1) |
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88 | (3) |
4 The fate of leaders and incentives to fight |
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91 | (26) |
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91 | (4) |
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4.2 Measuring the risk of losing of office |
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95 | (7) |
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4.3 A statistical test of our theory of conflict initiation |
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102 | (14) |
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4.3.1 The risk of conflict initiation |
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106 | (2) |
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108 | (3) |
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4.3.3 An overview of the findings from the statistical model |
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111 | (7) |
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112 | (2) |
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114 | (1) |
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International political context |
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115 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
5 Case studies: Central America 1840-1918 |
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117 | (78) |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (30) |
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135 | (2) |
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5.2.2 Ideology and international conflict in Central America |
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137 | (11) |
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5.3 Birth pangs of independence 1840-48 |
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148 | (8) |
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5.3.1 The return of Morazan |
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148 | (2) |
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5.3.2 Malespin and the Liberal exiles in Nicaragua |
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150 | (4) |
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5.3.3 The fall of Carrera |
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154 | (2) |
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5.4 Conservatism ascendant 1849-71 |
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156 | (12) |
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5.4.1 The return of Carrera |
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157 | (1) |
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5.4.2 Cabanas comes to power |
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158 | (3) |
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161 | (3) |
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164 | (4) |
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5.5 The return of Liberalism 1872-1918 |
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168 | (19) |
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5.5.1 The rise and demise of Justo Rufino Barrios |
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168 | (12) |
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5.5.2 The era of Zelaya and Estrada Cabrera |
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180 | (7) |
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5.6 A problem (largely) solved: the Washington Treaty |
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187 | (4) |
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191 | (4) |
6 Conclusions |
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195 | (10) |
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195 | (4) |
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199 | (5) |
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204 | (1) |
Appendix A: data and measurement |
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205 | (9) |
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A.1 Archigos: a data set of leaders |
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205 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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A.3 Explanatory variables |
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207 | (7) |
Bibliography |
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214 | (17) |
Index |
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231 | |