About the Authors |
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xi | |
Foreword |
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xiii | |
Preface |
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1 | (10) |
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Economic Background: Opportunity and Challenge |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (1) |
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Community Fears and Frustrations |
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4 | (1) |
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Nostalgia and Radicalism: The Striving for Simple Answers |
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5 | (1) |
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Entrepreneurs Drive Success |
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5 | (1) |
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Pictures vs. Brushstrokes |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (1) |
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The Fourteen Propositions |
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8 | (1) |
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8 | (3) |
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Chapter 1 Today's Landscape |
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11 | (16) |
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1.1 Innovation and Productivity |
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12 | (2) |
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1.2 Accelerating Product Innovation and Consumer Expectations |
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14 | (3) |
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1.2.1 Innovation Comes in Different Forms: All Forms Matter |
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16 | (1) |
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1.2.2 A Perception of Risk: Entrepreneurs vs. Professional Managers |
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17 | (1) |
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1.3 Financialisation has Interrupted Business Credit Mechanisms |
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17 | (1) |
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1.4 Capitalism and the Entrepreneur |
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18 | (3) |
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Figure 1.1 The Innovation and Profit Generation Circle |
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19 | (2) |
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1.5 Historic Events: Our Window to the Future |
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21 | (1) |
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1.6 The United Kingdom Today |
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22 | (2) |
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22 | (1) |
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1.6.2 Balance of Payments |
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23 | (1) |
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23 | (1) |
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24 | (1) |
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24 | (1) |
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1.6.6 Generational Mismatch |
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24 | (1) |
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1.7 International Dependence |
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24 | (1) |
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1.8 Today's Biggest Challenges? |
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25 | (2) |
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Chapter 2 Brexit Paradigms |
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27 | (16) |
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28 | (2) |
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2.2 Brexit No. 2: Break with Rome (Again!) |
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30 | (6) |
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2.3 Brexit No. 3: Adjustment and Stabilisation |
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36 | (6) |
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Table 2.1 Brexit Challenges |
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40 | (2) |
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Figure 2.1 Previous Brexits |
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42 | (1) |
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42 | (1) |
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Chapter 3 Smaller Firms: Engines of Innovation |
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43 | (50) |
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43 | (2) |
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3.1.1 Mission-based Innovation Driven by "Ambitious Firms" |
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44 | (1) |
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3.2 Differing Market Landscapes |
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45 | (2) |
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3.2.1 Conventional Wisdom |
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45 | (1) |
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Table 3.1 MSMEs by Industry (2016 Employee Count Data) |
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46 | (1) |
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Figure 3.1 MSME 2010 Count by Business Stage (after Blackburn, 2012) |
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47 | (1) |
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3.3 MSME Importance to Overall Economy |
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47 | (7) |
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Figure 3.2 SME Employment and Innovation Impact |
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49 | (1) |
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Figure 3.3 SME Employment and Total Factor Productivity Impact |
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50 | (1) |
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Figure 3.4 E-commerce as % Intangible Innovation by Sector 2000-2007 |
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51 | (1) |
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Figure 3.5 Innovation Contribution vs. Employees on Low Pay |
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52 | (1) |
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Table 3.2 Sector Pre-tax Operating Profit Adjusted for Leasing and R&D |
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53 | (1) |
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3.4 The Triangle of Opportunity |
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54 | (4) |
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Figure 3.6 The Triangle of Opportunity |
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55 | (1) |
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Figure 3.7 `Opportunity Triangle' Sectors |
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56 | (1) |
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Figure 3.8 Opportunity Triangle `Growth' Sectors |
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57 | (1) |
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3.5 Zombies and New Entrants |
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58 | (3) |
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3.6 Complexity Rather than `One Size Fits All' |
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61 | (24) |
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3.6.1 Group 1: High-growth Potential `Big' (or Little!) Bang Disrupters |
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61 | (5) |
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3.6.2 Group 2: Complex Supply Chain Players |
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66 | (6) |
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3.6.3 Group 3: Simple Supply Chain Players |
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72 | (1) |
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3.6.4 Group 4: Professional Advice |
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73 | (1) |
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3.6.5 Group 5: Financial Services |
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74 | (1) |
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3.6.6 Group 6: Local Retail and Artisan Products |
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75 | (1) |
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Table 3.3 Number of Tailors Operating in the United Kingdom |
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76 | (4) |
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3.6.7 Group 7: Labour-intensive Service MSMEs |
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80 | (2) |
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3.6.8 Group 8: Knowledge-driven Innovators |
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82 | (3) |
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3.7 Diverse Groups Requiring Differing Brexit Outcomes |
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85 | (1) |
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3.8 Summary: Brexit Implications |
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85 | (8) |
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Table 3.4 Potential EU Impacts |
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86 | (2) |
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Table 3.5 MSME Sectors vs. EU Impact |
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88 | (5) |
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Chapter 4 Shocks Revisited |
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93 | (28) |
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4.1 Recap from Historical Brexits |
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94 | (1) |
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4.2 Our `Stones' and `Ripples' |
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94 | (10) |
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Table 4.1 Lessons from Previous Brexits |
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95 | (4) |
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Figure 4.1 Sterling Effective Purchasing Power |
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99 | (4) |
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Table 4.2 Disruption Events |
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103 | (1) |
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4.3 Shock A: Financial System Disruption (`Sudden Stop Events') |
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104 | (2) |
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Table 4.3 Sample Sudden Stop Events |
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105 | (1) |
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4.4 Shock B: Legal and Regulatory Risk |
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106 | (4) |
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4.5 Shock C: Brexit Day Operational Imperatives |
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110 | (3) |
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4.6 Shock D: Continued Market Innovation |
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113 | (1) |
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4.7 Shock E: Regional Execution |
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114 | (3) |
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117 | (4) |
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Chapter 5 Brexit: The Conventional Wisdom |
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121 | (14) |
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122 | (4) |
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126 | (3) |
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Table 5.1 Mainstream Case Examples |
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127 | (2) |
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5.3 Tinkerbell and the Art of Wishful Thinking |
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129 | (6) |
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129 | (4) |
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5.3.2 Government Debt, `Austerity' and Crowding Out |
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133 | (1) |
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133 | (2) |
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Chapter 6 Our Assumptions |
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135 | (6) |
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136 | (2) |
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138 | (3) |
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Chapter 7 Coping with a Brexit Shock |
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141 | (62) |
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144 | (41) |
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7.1.1 Proposition 1: Create New `Family Silver' (to Sell at a Profit) |
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147 | (1) |
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Figure 7.1 Basic Invisible Hand Model |
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148 | (1) |
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Figure 7.2 Basic Invisible Hand Model with Resources Reinvested in Growing Sectors |
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148 | (1) |
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Figure 7.3 Basic Invisible Hand Model with Financial Sector |
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149 | (3) |
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Figure 7.4 Proposed MSME Funding Support Flow |
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152 | (1) |
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7.1.2 Proposition 2: Link Public Procurement to MSME Innovation - Example: Use `Block Chain' to Establish Event-triggered Payment System for MSMEs |
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153 | (5) |
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7.1.3 Proposition 3: Create an MSME Banking Ombudsman Service |
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158 | (1) |
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7.1.4 Proposition 4: `Share the Problem and the Solutions' |
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159 | (1) |
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7.1.5 Proposition 5: `Initiate an MSME-focused Exporting Program' |
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160 | (4) |
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7.1.6 Proposition 6: Kill Non-viable Firms |
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164 | (1) |
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7.1.7 Proposition 7: Accept that the Supply Chain Status Quo Must Change: UK Competitiveness Must Rise or UK Operations Risk Redundancy |
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165 | (3) |
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7.1.8 Proposition 8: Publicly Contract MSMEs to Build Block Chain-based Real-time Certificates of Origin System |
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168 | (2) |
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1.1.9 Proposition 9: Follow in the Footsteps of `Economic Miracle' Countries to Establish `Innovation Contracts' that Blend Public and Private Sectors |
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170 | (4) |
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7.1.9.1 Fraunhofer and the German Mittlestand |
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174 | (1) |
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7.1.9.2 DARPA in the United States |
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175 | (2) |
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7.1.10 Proposition 10: Build the Venture Capital Exit Chain |
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177 | (3) |
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7.1.11 Proposition 11: Make it Worthwhile Patenting |
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179 | (3) |
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7.1.12 Proposition 12: Raise Management Competence |
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182 | (2) |
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7.1.13 Proposition 13: Give Control of Immigration to the Market and Up-skill the Indigenous Workforce through Vocational Training |
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184 | (6) |
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7.1.14 Proposition 14: New Trade Agreements |
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190 | (5) |
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7.2 How Did They Cope in Previous Brexits? |
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195 | (18) |
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Table 7.1 Previous Brexit Experience |
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196 | (7) |
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Chapter 8 Epilogue: Unlocking Our Potential |
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203 | (12) |
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8.1 Entrepreneurs Must Drive What Support They Need |
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205 | (2) |
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Table 8.1 Support Organisations |
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205 | (2) |
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8.2 MSMEs as Revenue Stream for Some Advisors |
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207 | (2) |
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209 | (3) |
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8.4 New Structures Will Be Required Before Brexit Day |
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212 | (1) |
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8.5 The Real Brexit Challenge |
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213 | (2) |
Appendix: Simple Glossary |
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215 | (4) |
Bibliography |
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219 | (22) |
Index |
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241 | |