Preface |
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xi | |
Acknowledgments |
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xiii | |
About the Author |
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xv | |
Introduction |
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1 | (2) |
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The Three Basic Elements of a Cash Flow Model |
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3 | (2) |
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3 | (1) |
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4 | (1) |
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5 | (1) |
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The Process of Building a Cash Flow Model |
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5 | (2) |
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5 | (1) |
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Obtain All Necessary Information |
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6 | (1) |
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Construct Basic Framework |
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6 | (1) |
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Develop Advanced Structure |
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6 | (1) |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (1) |
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How This Book Is Designed |
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7 | (2) |
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9 | (14) |
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9 | (1) |
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Dates and Timing on the Inputs Sheet |
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10 | (1) |
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Day-Count Systems: 30/360 versus Actual/360 versus Actual/365 |
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11 | (1) |
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Model Builder 1.1: Inputs Sheet---Dates and Timing |
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12 | (2) |
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Dates and Timing on the Cash Flow Sheet |
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14 | (1) |
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Model Builder 1.2: Cash Flow Sheet---Dates and Timing |
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15 | (3) |
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18 | (5) |
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18 | (1) |
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19 | (2) |
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21 | (2) |
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Asset Cash Flow Generation |
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23 | (20) |
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Loan Level versus Representative Line Amortization |
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23 | (4) |
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How Asset Generation Is Demonstrated in Model Builder |
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27 | (1) |
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Asset Generation on the Inputs Sheet |
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27 | (2) |
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Fixed Rate Amortization Inputs |
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28 | (1) |
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Floating Rate Amortization Inputs |
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28 | (1) |
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Model Builder 2.1: Inputs Sheet Asset Assumptions and the Vectors Sheet |
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29 | (4) |
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Asset Generation on the Cash Flow Sheet |
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33 | (1) |
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Model Builder 2.2: Notional Asset Amortization on the Cash Flow Sheet |
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33 | (6) |
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39 | (4) |
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39 | (1) |
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40 | (1) |
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41 | (1) |
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41 | (2) |
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43 | (16) |
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How Prepayments Are Tracked |
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43 | (3) |
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SMM: Single Monthly Mortality |
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44 | (1) |
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CPR: Conditional Prepayment Rate |
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44 | (1) |
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PSA: Public Securities Association |
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44 | (1) |
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ABS: Absolute Prepayment Speed |
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45 | (1) |
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Historical Prepayment Data Formats |
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46 | (1) |
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Building Prepayment Curves |
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46 | (1) |
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Prepayment Curves in Project Model Builder |
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47 | (1) |
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The Effect of Prepayments on Structured Transactions |
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48 | (1) |
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Model Builder 3.1: Historical Prepayment Analysis and Creating a Projected Prepayment Curve |
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48 | (5) |
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Model Builder 3.2: Integrating Projected Prepayments in Asset Amortization |
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53 | (3) |
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56 | (3) |
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Weighted Averages Using SUMPRODUCT and SUM |
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56 | (3) |
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Delinquency, Default, and Loss Analysis |
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59 | (24) |
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Delinquencies versus Defaults versus Loss |
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59 | (1) |
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The Importance of Analyzing Delinquency |
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60 | (2) |
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Model Builder 4.1: Building Historical Delinquency Curves |
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62 | (2) |
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Deriving Historical Loss Curves |
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64 | (3) |
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Model Builder 4.2: Building Historical and Projected Loss Curves |
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67 | (2) |
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Analyzing Historical Loss Curves |
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69 | (1) |
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Model Builder 4.2 Continued |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (1) |
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Model Builder 4.2 Continued |
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71 | (2) |
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Integrating Loss Projections |
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73 | (3) |
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The Effects of Seasoning and Default Timing |
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75 | (1) |
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Model Builder 4.3: Integrating Defaults in Asset Amortization |
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76 | (7) |
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83 | (6) |
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Model Builder 5.1: Historical Recovery Analysis |
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85 | (1) |
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Projecting Recoveries in a Cash Flow Model |
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86 | (1) |
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Model Builder 5.2: Integrating Recoveries into Project Model Builder |
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87 | (1) |
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Final Points Regarding Recoveries |
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88 | (1) |
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Liabilities and the Cash Flow Waterfall |
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89 | (18) |
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Priority of Payments and the Cash Flow Waterfall |
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89 | (2) |
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The Movement of Cash for an Individual Liability |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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Model Builder 6.1: Calculating Fees in the Waterfall |
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91 | (4) |
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94 | (1) |
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Model Builder 6.2: Calculating Interest in the Waterfall |
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95 | (5) |
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100 | (1) |
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Model Builder 6.3: Calculating Principal in the Waterfall |
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100 | (5) |
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Understanding Basic Asset and Liability Interactions |
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105 | (2) |
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Advanced Liability Structures: Triggers, Interest Rate Swaps, and Reserve Accounts |
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107 | (18) |
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Triggers and Their Affect on the Liability Structure |
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107 | (1) |
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Model Builder 7.1: Incorporating Triggers |
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108 | (5) |
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113 | (1) |
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Model Builder 7.2: Incorporating a Basic Interest Rate Swap |
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114 | (3) |
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117 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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Model Builder 7.3: Incorporating a Cash-Funded Reserve Account |
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118 | (4) |
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Conclusion of the Cash Flow Waterfall |
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122 | (1) |
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123 | (2) |
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123 | (2) |
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Analytics and Output Reporting |
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125 | (20) |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.1: Cash In versus Cash Out Test |
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126 | (2) |
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128 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.2: Balances at Maturity Tests |
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128 | (1) |
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129 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.3: Asset Principal Check Test |
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129 | (1) |
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130 | (1) |
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130 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.4: Calculating Monthly Yield |
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130 | (3) |
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Calculating the Monthly Yield |
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132 | (1) |
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133 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.5: Calculating Bond-Equivalent Yield |
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133 | (1) |
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133 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.6: Calculating Modified Duration |
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134 | (1) |
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135 | (1) |
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Model Builder 8.7: Creating the Output Report |
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136 | (4) |
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The Importance of Testing and Output |
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140 | (1) |
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140 | (5) |
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140 | (1) |
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141 | (1) |
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142 | (3) |
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145 | (10) |
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The Complete Model in Review |
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145 | (2) |
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Understanding the Effects of Increased Loss |
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147 | (3) |
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Varying Principal Allocation Methodologies |
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150 | (2) |
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151 | (1) |
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152 | (1) |
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Varying Recovery Rate and Lag |
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152 | (1) |
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153 | (1) |
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153 | (2) |
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Automation Using Visual Basic Applications (VBA) |
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155 | (20) |
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Conventions of This Chapter |
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155 | (1) |
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156 | (1) |
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156 | (1) |
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The Project Explorer and the Properties Window |
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157 | (1) |
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157 | (1) |
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Simple Automation for Printing and Goal Seek |
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158 | (1) |
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Model Builder 10.1: Automating Print Procedures |
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158 | (3) |
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Model Builder 10.2: Automating Goal Seek to Optimize Advance Rates |
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161 | (3) |
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Understanding Looping to Automate the Analytics Sheet |
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164 | (1) |
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Model Builder 10.3: Automating Goal Seek to Perform Transaction Analytics |
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164 | (3) |
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Automated Scenario Generation |
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167 | (1) |
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Model Builder 10.4: Creating a Transaction Scenario Generator |
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167 | (6) |
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Working with Macros in Excel |
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173 | (2) |
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175 | (4) |
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The Investment Banker's Perspective |
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175 | (1) |
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The Investor's Perspective |
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176 | (1) |
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176 | (1) |
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The Financial Guarantor's Perspective |
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177 | (1) |
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The Big Picture Perspective |
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177 | (2) |
Appendix: Using This Book with Excel 2007 |
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179 | (10) |
About the CD-ROM |
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189 | (4) |
Index |
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193 | |