Atnaujinkite slapukų nuostatas

Modern Financial Engineering: Counterparty, Credit, Portfolio And Systemic Risks [Kietas viršelis]

(Univ Of Rome La Sapienza, Italy), (Bank Of Russia, Russia), (Accenture, Europe), (Univ Of Bari, Italy)
  • Formatas: Hardback, 436 pages
  • Serija: Topics In Systems Engineering 2
  • Išleidimo metai: 11-Feb-2022
  • Leidėjas: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
  • ISBN-10: 9811252351
  • ISBN-13: 9789811252358
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
  • Formatas: Hardback, 436 pages
  • Serija: Topics In Systems Engineering 2
  • Išleidimo metai: 11-Feb-2022
  • Leidėjas: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
  • ISBN-10: 9811252351
  • ISBN-13: 9789811252358
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
"The book offers an overview of credit risk modeling and management. A three-step approach is adopted with the contents, after introducing the essential concepts of both mathematics and finance. Initially the focus is on the modeling of credit risk parameters mainly at the level of individual debtor and transaction, after which the book delves into counterparty credit risk, thus providing the link between credit and market risks. The second part is aimed at the portfolio level when multiple loans are pooled and default correlation becomes an important factor to consider and model. In this respect, the book explains how copulas help in modeling. The final stage is the macro perspective when the combination of credit risks related to financial institutionsproduces systemic risk and affects overall financial stability. The entire approach is two-dimensional as well. First, all modeling steps have replicable programming codes both in R and Matlab. In this way, the reader can experience the impact of changing the default probabilities of a given borrower or the weights of a sector. Second, at each stage, the book discusses the regulatory environment. This is because, at times, regulation can have stricter constraints than the outcome of internal models. In summary, the book guides the reader in modeling and managing credit risk by providing both the theoretical framework and the empirical tools necessary for a modern finance professional. In this sense, the book is aimed at a wide audience in all fields of study: from quants who want to engage in finance to economists who want to learn about coding and modern financial engineering"--

In an overview of credit risk modeling and management, Orlando and colleagues introduce the essential concepts of both mathematics and finance, then cover finance background and regulatory framework, credit risk modeling essentials, contemporary risk modeling, portfolio credit risk management applications, and systemic risk implications. Their topics include distributions commonly used in credit and counterparty risk modeling, credit risk regulation: after the crisis, model validation and audit, correlation-driven issues, and credit default swap. Annotation ©2022 Ringgold, Inc., Portland, OR (protoview.com)

The book offers an overview of credit risk modeling and management. A three-step approach is adopted with the contents, after introducing the essential concepts of both mathematics and finance. Initially the focus is on the modeling of credit risk parameters mainly at the level of individual debtor and transaction, after which the book delves into counterparty credit risk, thus providing the link between credit and market risks. The second part is aimed at the portfolio level when multiple loans are pooled and default correlation becomes an important factor to consider and model. In this respect, the book explains how copulas help in modeling. The final stage is the macro perspective when the combination of credit risks related to financial institutions produces systemic risk and affects overall financial stability. The entire approach is two-dimensional as well. First, all modeling steps have replicable programming codes both in R and Matlab. In this way, the reader can experience the impact of changing the default probabilities of a given borrower or the weights of a sector. Second, at each stage, the book discusses the regulatory environment. This is because, at times, regulation can have stricter constraints than the outcome of internal models. In summary, the book guides the reader in modeling and managing credit risk by providing both the theoretical framework and the empirical tools necessary for a modern finance professional. In this sense, the book is aimed at a wide audience in all fields of study: from quants who want to engage in finance to economists who want to learn about coding and modern financial engineering.

Foreword vii
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Useful Notations xxv
Mathematical and Statistical Foundations 1(68)
1 Distributions Commonly Used in Credit and Counterparty Risk Modeling
3(22)
1.1 Common Distributions Families
3(1)
1.2 Discrete Distributions
3(7)
1.2.1 Bernoulli Distribution
4(1)
1.2.2 Binomial Distribution
5(1)
1.2.3 Geometric Distribution
6(2)
1.2.4 Negative Binomial Distribution
8(1)
1.2.5 Poisson Distribution
9(1)
1.3 Continuous Distributions
10(7)
1.3.1 Uniform Distribution
11(1)
1.3.2 Normal Distribution
12(1)
1.3.3 Log-Normal Distribution
13(1)
1.3.4 Exponential Distribution
14(1)
1.3.5 Gamma Distribution
15(2)
1.3.6 Beta Distribution
17(1)
1.4 Indicator Function
17(1)
1.5 Multivariate Distributions
18(7)
1.5.1 Multivariate Gaussian Distribution
21(4)
2 Poisson Processes
25(10)
2.1 Homogeneous Poisson Process
25(6)
2.2 Time-Varying Intensity Model
31(1)
2.3 Inhomogeneous Poisson Process
32(3)
3 Estimation Techniques
35(34)
3.1 Estimator Finite Sample Properties
35(3)
3.1.1 Estimator Selection Criteria
35(2)
3.1.2 Cramer-Rao Inequality
37(1)
3.2 Probability Generating Functions (PGF)
38(2)
3.2.1 PGF Properties
39(1)
3.3 Monte Carlo Methods
40(2)
3.3.1 Integral Evaluation
41(1)
3.3.2 Estimator Variance
42(1)
3.4 Variance Reduction
42(1)
3.4.1 Antithetic Variates
42(1)
3.5 Copulas
43(16)
3.5.1 Definitions
43(3)
3.5.2 Sklar Theorem
46(2)
3.5.3 Properties
48(2)
3.5.4 Popular Families
50(4)
3.5.5 Examples
54(5)
3.6 Dependence Measures
59(12)
3.6.1 Rank Correlation
61(5)
3.6.2 Dependence Measurement with Copulas
66(1)
3.6.3 Tail Dependence
67(2)
Finance Background and Regulatory Framework 69(54)
4 Basic Definitions
71(8)
4.1 Risk Types
71(1)
4.2 Credit Risk Ratios
72(3)
4.2.1 Loan Loss Provision (LLP)
72(1)
4.2.2 Coverage Ratio (CovR)
73(1)
4.2.3 Cost of Risk (CoR)
73(1)
4.2.4 Non-Performing Loans (NPL)
74(1)
4.3 Write-Offs
75(1)
4.4 Prepayment Risk
76(3)
5 Banking Regulation Before the Crisis
79(12)
5.1 Basel Committee and Basel I
79(1)
5.2 Basel II
80(11)
5.2.1 Standardized Approach (ST)
82(1)
5.2.2 Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) Approach
82(9)
6 The Financial Crisis of the XXI-st Century
91(12)
6.1 Stock Market Turmoil
91(1)
6.2 Fuel for the Crisis
91(4)
6.3 Complexity Tree of Securitizations
95(3)
6.4 Lehman Brothers Collapse and the Change in Deposit Insurance
98(1)
6.5 Wider Macroeconomic Implications of the Great Recession
99(4)
7 Credit Risk Regulation After the Crisis
103(20)
7.1 From Basel II to Basel III
103(3)
7.1.1 Basel III Credit Risk Amendments
104(2)
7.2 Basel III Liquidity Ratios
106(4)
7.2.1 Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
107(1)
7.2.2 Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR)
107(3)
7.3 Basel III Capital Definition
110(9)
7.3.1 Additional Capital Instruments
110(4)
7.3.2 Capital Conservation Buffer
114(1)
7.3.3 Countercyclical Buffer
115(1)
7.3.4 Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI) Buffer
115(1)
7.3.5 Minimum Capital Ratio Level
116(2)
7.3.6 Capital Ratio for Islamic Banks
118(1)
7.4 Basel III Leverage Ratio
119(1)
7.5 Remuneration Regulation
120(3)
Credit Risk Modeling Essentials 123(64)
8 Probability of Default (PD)
125(22)
8.1 Default Definition
125(1)
8.2 Rating System
126(3)
8.2.1 Rating System Concept
127(1)
8.2.2 Rating Grades
128(1)
8.3 PD Estimation Methods
129(7)
8.3.1 Probit and Logit Models
131(4)
8.3.2 Calibration
135(1)
8.3.3 Bernoulli Distribution and Binomial Process
136(1)
8.4 Time Scaled Default Probabilities
136(3)
8.5 Time Scaled Rating Transitions
139(4)
8.6 Modeling Tails
143(1)
8.7 Additional Thoughts on PD
143(4)
9 Loss Given Default (LGD)
147(10)
9.1 Basic Definition
147(1)
9.2 Recovery Rating Scale
148(1)
9.3 LGD Modeling Approaches
148(2)
9.4 LGD Proxy Indicators
150(3)
9.5 Additional Thoughts on LGD
153(4)
10 Other Credit Risk Components and Portfolio Risk
157(14)
10.1 Exposure at Default (EAD)
157(4)
10.1.1 Modeling the CCF
159(1)
10.1.2 CCF Estimation Models
159(2)
10.2 Maturity (M)
161(1)
10.3 Expected and Unexpected Losses
162(4)
10.4 Portfolio Loss
166(2)
10.5 Economic Capital
168(3)
11 Model Validation and Audit
171(16)
11.1 Validating Credit Risk Parameters
171(10)
11.1.1 Discriminatory Power
171(5)
11.1.2 Accuracy (Calibration)
176(2)
11.1.3 Stability
178(3)
11.2 Back-Testing Gross Risk
181(2)
11.3 Correlation
183(1)
11.4 Lack of Data
184(1)
11.5 Data Quality
184(1)
11.6 Data Interpretation
185(1)
11.7 Heteroskedasticity
186(1)
11.8 Tails
186(1)
Counterparty Risk Modeling 187(38)
12 EAD Modeling
189(18)
12.1 Counterparty Credit Risk for OTC Instruments
189(3)
12.2 Current Exposure Method (CEM)
192(2)
12.3 Exposure at Contract Level
194(1)
12.4 Exposure at Counterparty Level
195(1)
12.5 Exposure with Collateral Payments
196(1)
12.6 Potential Future Exposure (PFE)
197(1)
12.7 Regulatory Methodology
197(2)
12.8 From the Add-on Factors to the Parametric Approach
199(4)
12.9 Parametric Potential Future Exposure
203(4)
13 EAD-Related Issues
207(12)
13.1 Credit Loss
207(1)
13.2 Discounted Contractual Cash Flow (DCCF)
207(2)
13.3 Risk-Neutral Valuation (RNV)
209(1)
13.4 Parametric Approach
209(2)
13.5 Unexpected Loss
211(2)
13.6 Economic Capital
213(1)
13.7 Central Counterparty (CCP)
214(1)
13.8 Cox Process
215(1)
13.9 Business Cycles
215(1)
13.10 Potential Collateral Requirements
215(4)
14 Correlation-Driven Issues
219(6)
14.1 Correlation in the Future Exposure
219(2)
14.2 Correlation in Credit Loss and Unexpected Loss
221(2)
14.3 Correlation between Netting Groups
223(1)
14.4 Cross-Correlations between Different Types of Credit Events
223(2)
Portfolio Credit Risk Management Applications 225(78)
15 Credit Risk Models
227(14)
15.1 Poisson Model
228(3)
15.1.1 Mixed Poisson Model
228(2)
15.1.2 Homogeneous Portfolio
230(1)
15.2 CreditRisk +
231(10)
15.2.1 Distribution of Defaults with Constant PD
232(4)
15.2.2 Portfolio Loss Distribution with Constant PD
236(5)
16 Sector Analysis
241(12)
16.1 Distribution of Defaults with Random PD
241(3)
16.2 Portfolio Loss Distribution with Random PD
244(5)
16.3 Multifactor Analysis over Several Sectors
249(2)
16.4 Advantages and Limitations of CreditRisk +
251(2)
17 Estimating PD and LGD for Modeling Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Italy
253(16)
17.1 Introduction
253(1)
17.2 Materials and Methods
254(1)
17.2.1 Non-Performing Exposure and Regulation
254(1)
17.2.2 Asymptotic Methods and Data Separation
254(1)
17.3 Experimental Results on a Portfolio of Italian Companies
255(10)
17.3.1 Results for the PD
255(5)
17.3.2 Results for the LGD
260(5)
17.4 Discussion
265(4)
18 Default Correlations
269(10)
18.1 Correlated Bernoulli Baseline Model
269(1)
18.2 Computation of Correlation Matrix through the Copula
270(3)
18.3 Portfolio Risk Evaluation
273(6)
18.3.1 Description of the Input Bond Return Data
273(2)
18.3.2 Risk Evaluation of Credit Migration
275(1)
18.3.3 Portfolio Risk Evaluation: Selecting the Copulas
275(4)
19 Credit Default Swap (CDS)
279(24)
19.1 CDS Terms and Definitions
280(2)
19.2 CDS Payoff
282(2)
19.3 Reduced-Form Model
284(8)
19.3.1 Poisson Process for Modeling CDS
285(1)
19.3.2 CDS Pricing
286(5)
19.3.3 Constant Hazard Rate Model
291(1)
19.4 Credit Curve
292(13)
19.4.1 Linear Interpolation
293(1)
19.4.2 Bootstrap Algorithm
294(3)
19.4.3 Example of Survival Curve Calibration
297(6)
Systemic Risk Implications 303(24)
20 . Diversifying the Economy for Systemic Risk Reduction: The Case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
305(12)
20.1 Introduction
305(2)
20.2 Quantitative Analysis and the Exposure to Oil
307(8)
20.2.1 Data
307(1)
20.2.2 Cluster Analysis
307(3)
20.2.3 Correlation
310(1)
20.2.4 Econometric Analysis
311(2)
20.2.5 Panel Analysis
313(2)
20.3 Discussion
315(2)
21 Systemic Risk Regulation
317(12)
21.1 Systemic Risk Concept
317(1)
21.2 Current Systemic Risk Regulation
318(1)
21.3 Systemic Risk Regulation Options
319(1)
21.4 Systemic Risk as a Public Bad
320(2)
21.4.1 Natural Monopoly Regulation
321(1)
21.4.2 Conceptual Regulatory Framework
321(1)
21.5 Theoretical Model
322(3)
21.6 Discussion
325(6)
21.6.1 Internal Ratings-Based (IRB)
325(1)
21.6.2 Globally Systemically Important Insurers (G-SIIs)
326(1)
Concluding Remarks 327(2)
Appendices 329(52)
Appendix A Financial Engineering: Coding in R
331(30)
A.1 R Code for
Chapter 3
331(7)
A.1.1 R Code 1
331(1)
A.1.2 R Code 2
332(2)
A.1.3 R Code 3
334(1)
A.1.4 R Code 4
335(1)
A.1.5 R Code 5
336(1)
A.1.6 R Code 6
336(1)
A.1.7 R Code 7
337(1)
A.2 R Code for
Chapter 18
338(23)
A.2.1 R Code for Section 18.3.2
338(5)
A.2.2 R Code for Section 18.3.3
343(18)
Appendix B Financial Engineering: Coding in Matlab
361(20)
B.1 Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) Model
361(1)
B.1.1 Matlab Code for the ASRF Model in
Chapter 5
361(1)
B.2 Matlab Code for
Chapter 15
362(4)
B.2.1 Matlab Code 1
362(2)
B.2.2 Matlab Code 2
364(2)
B.3 Matlab Code for
Chapter 16
366(5)
B.3.1 Matlab Code 3
366(3)
B.3.2 Matlab Code 4
369(2)
B.4 Matlab Code for
Chapter 18
371(2)
B.4.1 Code 5
371(2)
B.5 Matlab Code for
Chapter 19
373(8)
B.5.1 Matlab Code 6
373(4)
B.5.2 Matlab Code 7
377(4)
Appendix C Dataset Used for Modeling Non-Performing Loans 381(4)
Bibliography 385(14)
Index 399(8)
About the Authors 407