| Preface |
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iii | |
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xi | |
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xv | |
| Summary |
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xix | |
| Acknowledgments |
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xxxvii | |
| Abbreviations |
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xxxix | |
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1 | (36) |
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2 | (1) |
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3 | (2) |
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Brief History of the U.S. Global Posture |
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5 | (6) |
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The Current U.S. Global Posture |
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11 | (9) |
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20 | (1) |
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21 | (4) |
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25 | (4) |
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29 | (1) |
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30 | (5) |
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How This Report Is Organized |
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35 | (2) |
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Chapter Two Strategic Considerations: Benefits of Overseas Posture to Contingency Response |
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37 | (36) |
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Force Types and Implications for Deployment and Presence |
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40 | (2) |
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Force Requirements and Deployment Considerations for Major Combat |
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42 | (2) |
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En Route Infrastructure and Capabilities |
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44 | (4) |
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Deployment by Air and Sea |
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48 | (6) |
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Small-Scale Contingency Deployment Analysis |
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54 | (1) |
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Notional Scenarios for Analysis |
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55 | (2) |
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57 | (1) |
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Deployment Modeling Results |
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58 | (7) |
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Direct Operational Support |
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65 | (1) |
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Operational Support Considerations |
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65 | (1) |
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Assessing the Ability to Provide Operational Support to Contingencies |
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66 | (3) |
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69 | (4) |
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Chapter Three Strategic Considerations: Benefits of Overseas Posture for Deterrence and Assurance |
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73 | (14) |
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The Role of Foreign Posture in Deterring Potential Foes |
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73 | (1) |
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Deterrence Ideas and Practice |
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74 | (6) |
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The Adversary Gets a Vote |
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80 | (2) |
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82 | (2) |
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84 | (1) |
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85 | (2) |
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Chapter Four Strategic Considerations: Benefits of Overseas Posture for Security Cooperation |
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87 | (14) |
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Does Overseas Basing Provide Cost Advantages for Security Cooperation? |
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88 | (2) |
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Does Overseas Basing Improve Partner Willingness to Deploy Forces? |
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90 | (1) |
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Does Overseas Basing Provide Benefits for Partner Capability Development? |
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91 | (4) |
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Does Overseas Basing Provide Training Advantages for U.S. Forces? |
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95 | (3) |
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How Do Rotational Forces Change U.S. Military Strategies for Security Cooperation? |
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98 | (1) |
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99 | (2) |
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Chapter Five Risks to Investing in Facilities Overseas |
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101 | (20) |
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Political Risks to Access |
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101 | (3) |
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Risks to Peacetime Access: Where Are U.S. Bases at Risk? |
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104 | (3) |
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107 | (3) |
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Changing Operational Risks to Posture |
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110 | (6) |
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Assessing Violent Extremist Risks to Posture |
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116 | (2) |
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118 | (3) |
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Chapter Six Installation Conditions |
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121 | (10) |
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Data on Installation Conditions |
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122 | (4) |
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Findings on Installation Conditions |
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126 | (4) |
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Implications of Findings on Installation Quality for Postures |
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130 | (1) |
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Chapter Seven Host-Nation Support and U.S. Payments to Other Countries |
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131 | (36) |
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Terminology and Data Sources |
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132 | (1) |
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Definitions of Host-Nation Support, U.S. Payments, and Related Concepts |
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132 | (4) |
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Sources of Data on Host-Nation Support and U.S. Payments |
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136 | (1) |
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Lessons from Historical Data |
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137 | (4) |
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Analysis of Contemporary Data on Host-Nation Support and U.S. Payments |
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141 | (1) |
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Host Nations' Contributions to the United States |
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141 | (14) |
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U.S. Payments to Other Countries |
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155 | (2) |
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Treatment of Bilateral Flows in Posture Analysis |
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157 | (3) |
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NATO Security Investment Program Contributions |
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160 | (3) |
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Host-Nation Support Data Collection in the Future |
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163 | (1) |
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Implications of Findings on Host-Nation Support and U.S. Payments for Postures |
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164 | (3) |
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Chapter Eight Relative Costs of Overseas Basing and Rotational Presence |
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167 | (68) |
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Introduction to Cost Analysis |
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168 | (1) |
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168 | (1) |
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Approach to Overall Cost Analysis: Constructing Cost Models |
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169 | (1) |
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Approach to Individual Cost Models |
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170 | (5) |
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Limitations of This Analysis |
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175 | (1) |
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Preview of Cost Analysis Findings |
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175 | (2) |
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Recurring Permanent Presence Cost Analysis |
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177 | (1) |
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177 | (3) |
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180 | (4) |
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Installation-Related Costs |
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184 | (24) |
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208 | (2) |
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Summary of Recurring Fixed Costs |
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210 | (1) |
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Summary of Incremental Overseas Variable Costs |
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211 | (3) |
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214 | (1) |
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Components of Rotational Presence |
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215 | (4) |
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Example Rotational Deployment Cost Calculations |
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219 | (4) |
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223 | (1) |
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Investment Cost Methodology |
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224 | (1) |
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224 | (2) |
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Personnel-Related Movement and Separation |
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226 | (2) |
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Base-Related Closure Costs |
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228 | (1) |
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229 | (2) |
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Example Investment Cost Calculations |
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231 | (1) |
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232 | (3) |
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Chapter Nine Illustrative Postures |
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235 | (18) |
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Parameters of All Illustrative Postures |
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236 | (1) |
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Elements of Current U.S. Posture That Are Held Constant |
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237 | (2) |
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Illustrative Cost-Reduction Posture |
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239 | (1) |
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Notional Cost-Reduction Posture Changes |
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240 | (4) |
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Illustrative Global Responsiveness and Engagement Posture |
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244 | (1) |
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Notional Global Responsiveness and Engagement Posture Changes |
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245 | (3) |
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Illustrative Major Contingency Posture |
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248 | (1) |
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Notional Major Contingency Posture Changes |
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249 | (2) |
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Summary of Posture Changes |
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251 | (2) |
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Chapter Ten Analysis of Illustrative Postures |
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253 | (34) |
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Recap of the Common Features of the Illustrative Postures |
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254 | (1) |
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Deployment Responsiveness |
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255 | (1) |
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256 | (1) |
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Global Responsiveness and Engagement Posture |
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257 | (1) |
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Major Contingency Posture |
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258 | (1) |
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Availability of Basing for Direct Operational Support |
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258 | (4) |
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262 | (2) |
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264 | (1) |
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Effect on Training to Improve Partner Capabilities |
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265 | (1) |
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Improving U.S. Force Capabilities |
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266 | (1) |
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The Value of Rotational Forces for Security Cooperation |
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266 | (1) |
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Risks to U.S. Installations |
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267 | (1) |
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Political and Operational Access Risk Comparison |
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267 | (3) |
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Risks from Adversary Actions |
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270 | (3) |
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Cost Comparisons of Illustrative Postures |
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273 | (1) |
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274 | (3) |
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Investment Costs to Transition to Posture Options |
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277 | (3) |
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Comparing Marine Corps CRP Cost Changes to the Long-Term Plan |
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280 | (4) |
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Implications for Determining Actual Postures |
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284 | (3) |
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Chapter Eleven Conclusions |
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287 | (18) |
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Minimum Essential Posture Needs |
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287 | (1) |
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Changes Advisable to Consider Depending on Strategic Judgments |
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288 | (2) |
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290 | (1) |
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290 | (4) |
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294 | (6) |
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300 | (3) |
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Value Perceptions and Priorities Are Critical to Posture Decisions |
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303 | (2) |
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305 | (56) |
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B Detailed Cost Analysis Results |
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361 | (18) |
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C Security Cooperation Cost Differential Between Forward-Based and U.S.-Based Forces |
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379 | (4) |
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D U.S. Military Overseas Prepositioned Equipment |
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383 | (6) |
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E Deployment Analysis Scenario APOD and APOE Details |
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389 | (4) |
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F USFJ-Related Costs Borne by Japan |
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393 | (2) |
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G Analysis of Missile Threat to Bases for the Postures |
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395 | (14) |
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H Detailed Estimates of Host Nation Contributions from Japan, South Korea, and Germany |
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409 | (4) |
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I Summary Tables of Illustrative Postures |
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413 | (12) |
| References |
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425 | |
