Physical Earthquake Forecasting and Prediction: T-TECTO Omega System covers recent research on earthquake physics, such as the Cosserat continuum theory of faulting and earthquakes, global tectonic stress field, chaotic synchronizations in earthquakes, and slow solitary tectonic waves in the Earths crust. Based on new advances in these fields, the operational earthquake forecasting system called T-TECTO Omega System has been developed. The authors previous book, The Omega-Theory: A New Physics of Earthquakes, explored an important breakthrough in earthquake physics, the Omega-Theory. This new book is dedicated to statistically evaluating that theory and the models based on it. The text is divided into five parts: statistical testing of the physical earthquake predictions, tectonic stress, time-synchronizations, tectonic couple-stress, and alert system and operational earthquake forecasting and prediction. The book's final part also covers some of the challenges of operational earthquake forecasting, its political and social implications, limits, and problems. This book is essential reading for those interested in the cutting-edge of earthquake forecasting and prediction.
PART 1: Statistical testing of the physical earthquake predictions
1.
Intrinsic predictability of earthquakes
2. Log-likelihood and PI-tests
3. The
reference model seismic potential
4. Molchan tests
5. Dynamic potential and
statistical forecasting PART 2: Tectonic stress
6. Time-dependent tectonic
stress and strain fields
7. Analysis of the global vertical deformation
8.
Analysis of the global shear stress
9. Precursory stress changes and
statistical tests PART 3: Time-synchronizations
10. Time-synchronizations
and the local interaction potential
11. Global ensemble analysis of the
Time-synchronizations
12. Forecasting the magnitudes of earthquakes
13.
Critical regions
14. Statistical tests PART 4: Tectonic couple-stress
15.
Systems of tectonic waves
16. Shear tractions
17. Dual tectonic waves
18.
Ensemble models of shear tractions and statistical tests
19. Dynamic shear
traction and statistical tests
20. Global interaction potential and
earthquake triggering PART 5: Alert system and operational earthquake
forecasting and prediction
21. Hybrid probability models
22. Comparison
between Omega, ETAS and smoothed seismicity models
23. Alert system
24.
Long-range forecasting
25. Operational centers and FIS
Dr. Zalohar is a physicist and geologist working as an independent researcher, giving scientific and philosophical lectures at various institutions. He obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Ljubljana in 2008. Dr. Zalohars main research fields are physics of faults and earthquakes, stratigraphy, and palaeontology. Among his most important achievements are a series of articles on the Cosserat mechanics of faulting for the Journal of Structural Geology and the development of the T-TECTO software for fault-slip data and earthquakes analysis, which is now recognized and used by structural geologists around the world. During numerous field trips observing tectonic structures in the Alps he and his colleagues made important paleontological discoveries, including identifying the oldest and only-known fossils of seahorses, pipehorses and pygmy pipehorses, new fossil sites with complete skeletons of Triassic reptilians, and fish and other biota from the Tethys ocean. His most important contribution to science is a discovery of a new physical theory of earthquakes that brings a redefinition and solution of the earthquake prediction problem.
