"What is going to happen to me?" Most patients ask this question, or have it in the back of their minds, during a clinical encounter with a medical professional. The language used in a medical consultation usually focuses on what the problem is, and what needs to be done about it right now. However, we increasingly have access to information which allows us to estimate and influence what is likely to happen in the future. To satisfy our need to know the possible outcomes of a medical condition, we turn to prognostic information and prognosis research.
By looking at characteristics of people, their health and social environment, prognosis research can identify what it is that predicts the outcome of a medical condition. This type of research analysis also helps us understand why outcomes vary across individuals and groups. Prognosis Research in Healthcare: Concepts, Methods and Impact provides an introduction to the field, and discusses how the information collected during prognosis research can be used to predict an individual patient's outcome. The book also looks at how we can develop targeted treatments based on prognosis research.
Central to modern medical practise, the topic of prognosis is the basis of decision making in healthcare and policy development. It translates basic and clinical science into practical care for patients and populations. In Prognosis Research in Healthcare: Concepts, Methods and Impact, this increasingly important topic is organised around five categories of prognostic research to provide a clear focus, coherence and structure. It is ideal for medical students, clinicians, researchers, healthcare professionals, and healthcare policy makers wishing to learn more about the field of prognosis.
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| A Note on Language and Terminology |
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| Prologue |
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Part 1 Introduction to prognosis and prognosis research |
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1 Prognosis in healthcare |
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2 A framework for prognosis research |
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Part 2 Fundamental statistics for prognosis research |
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3 Fundamental statistical methods for prognosis research |
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4 Ten principles to strengthen prognosis research |
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Part 3 Undertaking prognosis research |
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5 Overall prognosis research |
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6 Prognostic factor research |
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7 Prognostic model research |
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8 Predictors of treatment effect |
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9 Systematic reviews and meta-analysis of prognosis research studies |
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Part 4 Exemplars of prognosis research impact |
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10 Prognosis research in people with low back pain |
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247 | (11) |
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11 Prognosis research in people with coronary heart disease |
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12 Prognosis research in people with traumatic bleeding |
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Part 5 Novel topics in prognosis research |
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13 Individual participant data meta-analysis of prognosis studies |
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14 Electronic healthcare records and prognosis research |
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15 Novel statistical methods for prognosis research |
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16 Machine learning in prognosis research |
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| Appendix |
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| Index |
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Richard D. Riley is a Professor of Biostatistics at Keele University since 2014, having previous held posts at the Universities of Birmingham, Liverpool and Leicester. He is focused on statistical and methodological research for prognosis and meta-analysis, and supports clinical projects in these areas. He is also a Statistics Editor for the BMJ and a co-convenor of the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group. Prof Riley co-leads a summer school in Prognosis Research Methods, and leads a number of statistical training courses for risk prediction and meta-analysis
Professor Danielle van der Windt received her academic training in epidemiology in the Netherlands at the EMGO+ Institute for Health and Care Research of the VU University in Amsterdam where she worked in a programme of research on the diagnosis, prognosis and management of musculoskeletal disorders. She is currently a Professor of primary care epidemiology at Keele, and is part of the Centre's executive management team
Professor Peter Croft is a Professor of Primary Care Epidemiology at Keele since 1994. Previously, he worked as a General Practitioner in Newcastle-under-Lyme, before training as an epidemiologist at the Medical Research Council's Environmental Epidemiology Unit in Southampton, and at the Arthritis Research Campaign's Epidemiology Research Unit in Manchester
Professor Karel G.M. Moons is Professor of Clinical Epidemiology at the Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care. He is Director of Research in the management team of the Julius Center, and leads the research programme 'Methodology'. Since 2005 also he has an Adjunct Professorship at VanderBilt University, Nashville, USA. Having obtained his PhD in Epidemiology at Erasmus University, Rotterdam, he has been Visiting Professor at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, USA in 2002, and at Tokai University, Japan.
