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1 | (24) |
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1.1 Prognostics and Health Management |
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1 | (4) |
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1.2 Historical Background |
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5 | (3) |
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8 | (2) |
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1.4 Review of Prognostics Algorithms |
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10 | (4) |
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1.5 Benefits and Challenges for Prognostics |
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14 | (11) |
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1.5.1 Benefits in Life-Cycle Cost |
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14 | (1) |
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1.5.2 Benefits in System Design and Development |
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15 | (1) |
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1.5.3 Benefits in Production |
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16 | (1) |
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1.5.4 Benefits in System Operation |
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16 | (1) |
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1.5.5 Benefits in Logistics Support and Maintenance |
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17 | (1) |
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1.5.6 Challenges in Prognostics |
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18 | (3) |
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21 | (4) |
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2 Tutorials for Prognostics |
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25 | (48) |
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25 | (3) |
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2.2 Prediction of Degradation Behavior |
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28 | (16) |
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2.2.1 Least Squares Method |
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28 | (3) |
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2.2.2 When a Degradation Model Is Available (Physics-Based Approaches) |
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31 | (7) |
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2.2.3 When a Degradation Model Is NOT Available (Data-Driven Approaches) |
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38 | (6) |
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44 | (9) |
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44 | (5) |
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2.3.2 Prognostics Metrics |
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49 | (4) |
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53 | (15) |
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2.5 Issues in Practical Prognostics |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (4) |
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70 | (3) |
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3 Bayesian Statistics for Prognostics |
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73 | (54) |
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3.1 Introduction to Bayesian Theory |
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73 | (3) |
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3.2 Aleatory Uncertainty versus Epistemic Uncertainty |
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76 | (10) |
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3.2.1 Aleatory Uncertainty |
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76 | (2) |
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3.2.2 Epistemic Uncertainty |
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78 | (2) |
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3.2.3 Sampling Uncertainty in Coupon Tests |
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80 | (6) |
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3.3 Conditional Probability and Total Probability |
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86 | (7) |
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3.3.1 Conditional Probability |
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86 | (6) |
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92 | (1) |
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93 | (11) |
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3.4.1 Bayes' Theorem in Probability Form |
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93 | (2) |
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3.4.2 Bayes' Theorem in Probability Density Form |
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95 | (4) |
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3.4.3 Bayes' Theorem with Multiple Data |
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99 | (3) |
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3.4.4 Bayes' Theorem for Parameter Estimation |
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102 | (2) |
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104 | (6) |
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3.5.1 Recursive Bayesian Update |
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104 | (4) |
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3.5.2 Overall Bayesian Update |
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108 | (2) |
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3.6 Bayesian Parameter Estimation |
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110 | (4) |
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3.7 Generating Samples from Posterior Distribution |
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114 | (8) |
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114 | (2) |
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3.7.2 Grid Approximation Method: One Parameter |
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116 | (3) |
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3.7.3 Grid Approximation: Two Parameters |
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119 | (3) |
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122 | (5) |
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124 | (3) |
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4 Physics-Based Prognostics |
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127 | (52) |
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4.1 Introduction to Physics-Based Prognostics |
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127 | (4) |
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4.1.1 Demonstration Problem: Battery Degradation |
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130 | (1) |
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4.2 Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS) |
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131 | (9) |
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4.2.1 MATLAB Implementation of Battery Degradation Prognostics Using Nonlinear Least Squares |
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133 | (7) |
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140 | (12) |
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4.3.1 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Sampling Method |
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140 | (7) |
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4.3.2 MATLAB Implementation of Bayesian Method for Battery Prognostics |
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147 | (5) |
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152 | (13) |
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154 | (6) |
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4.4.2 MATLAB Implementation of Battery Prognostics |
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160 | (5) |
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4.5 Practical Application of Physics-Based Prognostics |
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165 | (7) |
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165 | (2) |
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4.5.2 Modifying the Codes for the Crack Growth Example |
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167 | (3) |
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170 | (2) |
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4.6 Issues in Physics-Based Prognostics |
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172 | (4) |
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173 | (1) |
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4.6.2 Parameter Estimation |
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174 | (1) |
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4.6.3 Quality of Degradation Data |
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175 | (1) |
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176 | (3) |
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177 | (2) |
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5 Data-Driven Prognostics |
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179 | (64) |
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5.1 Introduction to Data-Driven Prognostics |
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179 | (2) |
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5.2 Gaussian Process (GP) Regression |
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181 | (26) |
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5.2.1 Surrogate Model and Extrapolation |
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181 | (2) |
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5.2.2 Gaussian Process Simulation |
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183 | (4) |
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187 | (14) |
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5.2.4 MATLAB Implementation of Battery Prognostics Using Gaussian Process |
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201 | (6) |
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207 | (19) |
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5.3.1 Feedforward Neural Network Model |
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208 | (13) |
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5.3.2 MATLAB Implementation of Battery Prognostics Using Neural Network |
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221 | (5) |
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5.4 Practical Use of Data-Driven Approaches |
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226 | (6) |
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226 | (2) |
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5.4.2 MATLAB Codes for the Crack Growth Example |
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228 | (2) |
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230 | (2) |
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5.5 Issues in Data-Driven Prognostics |
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232 | (4) |
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5.5.1 Model-Form Adequacy |
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232 | (1) |
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5.5.2 Optimal Parameters Estimation |
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233 | (2) |
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5.5.3 Quality of Degradation Data |
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235 | (1) |
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236 | (7) |
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238 | (5) |
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6 Study on Attributes of Prognostics Methods |
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243 | (38) |
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243 | (2) |
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245 | (7) |
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6.2.1 Paris Model for Fatigue Crack Growth |
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245 | (2) |
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6.2.2 Huang's Model for Fatigue Crack Growth |
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247 | (3) |
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6.2.3 Health Monitoring Data and Loading Conditions |
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250 | (2) |
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6.3 Physics-Based Prognostics |
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252 | (17) |
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6.3.1 Correlation in Model Parameters |
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253 | (10) |
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6.3.2 Comparison of NLS, BM, and PF |
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263 | (6) |
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6.4 Data-Driven Prognostics |
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269 | (5) |
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6.4.1 Comparison Between GP and NN |
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270 | (4) |
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6.5 Comparison Between Physics-Based and Data-Driven Prognostics |
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274 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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276 | (5) |
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279 | (2) |
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7 Applications of Prognostics |
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281 | (61) |
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281 | (1) |
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7.2 In Situ Monitoring and Prediction of Joint Wear |
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282 | (16) |
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7.2.1 Motivation and Background |
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282 | (1) |
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7.2.2 Wear Model and Wear Coefficient |
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283 | (2) |
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7.2.3 In Situ Measurement of Joint Wear for a Slider-Crank Mechanism |
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285 | (3) |
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7.2.4 Bayesian Inference for Predicting Progressive Joint Wear |
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288 | (4) |
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7.2.5 Identification of Wear Coefficient and Prediction of Wear Volume |
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292 | (4) |
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7.2.6 Discussion and Conclusions |
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296 | (2) |
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7.3 Identification of Correlated Damage Parameters Under Noise and Bias Using Bayesian Inference |
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298 | (11) |
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7.3.1 Motivation and Background |
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298 | (1) |
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7.3.2 Damage Growth and Measurement Uncertainty Models |
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299 | (2) |
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7.3.3 Bayesian Inference for Characterization of Damage Properties |
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301 | (8) |
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309 | (1) |
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7.4 Usage of Accelerated Test Data for Predicting Remaining Useful Life at Field Operating Conditions |
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309 | (12) |
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7.4.1 Motivation and Background |
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310 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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7.4.3 Utilizing Accelerated Life Test Data |
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312 | (9) |
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321 | (1) |
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7.5 Bearing Prognostics Method Based on Entropy Decrease at Specific Frequencies |
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321 | (18) |
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7.5.1 Motivation and Background |
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321 | (3) |
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7.5.2 Degradation Feature Extraction |
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324 | (7) |
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331 | (5) |
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7.5.4 Discussions on Generality of the Proposed Method |
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336 | (2) |
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7.5.5 Conclusions and Future Works |
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338 | (1) |
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339 | (3) |
References |
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342 | (3) |
Index |
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345 | |