Introduction |
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xv | |
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xvi | |
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How This Book Is Structured |
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xvii | |
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What's on the Companion Web Site |
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xix | |
Chapter 1 Risk, Finance, Corporate Management, and Society |
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1 | (34) |
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1 | (6) |
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Risks EverywhereA Consequence of Uncertainty |
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1 | (3) |
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Risk and Finance; Basic Concepts |
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4 | (3) |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (4) |
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7 | (1) |
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Example: An IBM Day-Trades Record |
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7 | (4) |
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9 | (1) |
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10 | (1) |
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Example: Constructing a Portfolio |
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11 | (6) |
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12 | (3) |
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Real and Financial Assets |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (1) |
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16 | (1) |
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Problem 1.1: Options and Their Prices |
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17 | (2) |
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Options and Specific Needs |
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18 | (1) |
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Example: Options and The Price of Equity |
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19 | (1) |
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Example: Management Stock Options |
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19 | (16) |
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Options and Trading in Specialized Markets |
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20 | (2) |
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20 | (1) |
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Trading on Commodities (Metal, Gold, Silver, Corn, Oil) |
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20 | (1) |
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Trading the Weather and Insurance |
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21 | (1) |
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Securitization, Mortgage-Backed Securities, and Credit Derivatives |
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21 | (1) |
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Real-Life Crises and Finance |
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22 | (2) |
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22 | (1) |
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The BankingMoney System Crisis |
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23 | (1) |
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The 2008 Meltdown and Financial Theory |
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24 | (3) |
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27 | (3) |
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29 | (1) |
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30 | (5) |
Chapter 2 Applied Finance |
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35 | (28) |
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35 | (28) |
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35 | (9) |
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Risk Finance and Insurance |
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35 | (1) |
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36 | (1) |
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Finance, the Environment, and Exchange-Traded Funds Indexes |
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37 | (1) |
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38 | (1) |
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Contract Pricing and Franchises |
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39 | (1) |
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Catastrophic Risks, Insurance and Finance |
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40 | (1) |
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41 | (1) |
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42 | (1) |
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Pricing Reliability and Warranties |
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42 | (1) |
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The Price of Quality Claims |
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43 | (1) |
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Financial Risk Pricing: A Historical Perspective |
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44 | (3) |
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Essentials of Financial Risk Management |
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47 | (2) |
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Comprehensive Financial Risk Management |
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49 | (1) |
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Technology and Complexity |
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49 | (4) |
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51 | (1) |
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Finance, Cyber Risks, and Terrorism |
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52 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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Virtual Markets Participants |
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53 | (1) |
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Virtual Economic Universes |
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53 | (1) |
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Market Making and Pricing Practice |
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53 | (4) |
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Market Makers, Market Liquidity, and Bid-Ask Spreads |
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55 | (1) |
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Alternative Market Structures |
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56 | (1) |
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57 | (6) |
Chapter 3 Risk Measurement and Volatility |
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63 | (46) |
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63 | (6) |
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Risk, Volatility, and Measurement |
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63 | (3) |
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Moments and Measures of Volatility |
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66 | (6) |
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Expectations, Volatility, Skewness, Kurtosis, and the Range |
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67 | (2) |
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Example: IBM Returns Statistics |
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69 | (1) |
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Example: Moments and the CAPM |
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70 | (2) |
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Problem 3.1: Calculating the Beta of a Security |
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72 | (9) |
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72 | (1) |
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Models of Rate of Returns |
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73 | (4) |
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77 | (6) |
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77 | (2) |
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79 | (1) |
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ARCH and GARCH Estimators |
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80 | (1) |
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Example: The AR(1)-ARCH(1) Model |
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81 | (2) |
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Example: A GARCH (1,1) Model |
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83 | (4) |
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High-Low Estimators of Volatility |
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83 | (1) |
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Extreme Measures, Volume, and Intraday Prices |
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84 | (3) |
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Statistical Orders, Volume, and Prices |
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85 | (2) |
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Problem 3.2: The Probability of the Range |
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87 | (2) |
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Intraday Prices and Extreme Distributions |
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87 | (1) |
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88 | (1) |
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89 | (5) |
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Value at Risk and Risk Exposure |
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90 | (5) |
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92 | (2) |
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Example: VaR and Shortfall |
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94 | (1) |
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Example: VaR, Normal ROR, and Portfolio Design |
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95 | (14) |
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The Estimation of Gains and Losses |
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97 | (2) |
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99 | (10) |
Chapter 4 Risk Finance Modeling and Dependence |
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109 | (32) |
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109 | (6) |
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109 | (2) |
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Dependence and Probability Models |
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111 | (1) |
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111 | (8) |
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Dependence and Quantitative Statistical Probability Models |
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113 | (1) |
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Many Sources of Normal Risk: Aggregation and Risk Factors Reduction |
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114 | (1) |
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Example: Risk Factors Aggregation |
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115 | (1) |
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Example: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) |
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116 | (1) |
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Example: A Bivariate Data Matrix and PCA |
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117 | (2) |
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Example: A Market Index and PCA |
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119 | (4) |
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120 | (3) |
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Example: The Gumbel Copula, the Highs and the Lows |
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123 | (1) |
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Example: Copulas and Conditional Dependence |
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124 | (1) |
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Example: Copulas and the Conditional Distribution |
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125 | (16) |
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Financial Modeling and Intertemporal Models |
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126 | (7) |
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Time, Memory, and Causal Dependence |
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127 | (2) |
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Quantitative Time and Change |
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129 | (1) |
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Persistence and Short-term Memory |
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130 | (3) |
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133 | (2) |
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135 | (6) |
Chapter 5 Risk, Value, and Financial Prices |
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141 | (36) |
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141 | (7) |
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141 | (2) |
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143 | (4) |
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Utility's Normative Principles: A Historical Perspective |
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144 | (1) |
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Prelude to Utility and Expected Utility |
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145 | (2) |
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Lotteries and Utility Functions |
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147 | (1) |
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Example: The Utility of a Lottery |
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148 | (3) |
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Quadratic Utility and Portfolio Pricing |
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149 | (1) |
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Utility and an Insurance Exchange |
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150 | (1) |
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Example: The Power Utility Function |
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151 | (1) |
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Example: Valuation and the Pricing of Cash Flows |
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152 | (1) |
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Example: Risk and the Financial Meltdown |
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153 | (2) |
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Utility Rational Foundations |
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155 | (4) |
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155 | (1) |
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Utility and Its Behavioral Derivatives |
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156 | (3) |
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Examples: Specific Utility Functions |
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159 | (5) |
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The Price and the Utility of Consumption |
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161 | (3) |
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Example: Kernel Pricing and the Exponential Utility Function |
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164 | (1) |
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Example: The Pricing Kernel and the CAPM |
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165 | (1) |
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Example: Kernel Pricing and the HARA Utility Function |
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166 | (11) |
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The Price and Demand for Insurance |
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167 | (3) |
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170 | (7) |
Chapter 6 Applied Utility Finance |
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177 | (28) |
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177 | (5) |
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Risk and the Utility of Time |
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177 | (3) |
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Expected Utility and the Time Utility Price of Money |
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177 | (1) |
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Risk, Safety, and Reliability |
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178 | (2) |
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Asset Allocation and Investments |
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180 | (2) |
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Example: A Two-Securities Problem |
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182 | (2) |
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Example: A Two-Stocks Portfolio |
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184 | (1) |
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Problem 6.1: The Efficiency Frontier |
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185 | (2) |
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Problem 6.2: A Two-Securities Portfolio |
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187 | (7) |
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Conditional Kernel Pricing and the Price of Infrastructure Investments |
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188 | (3) |
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Conditional Kernel Pricing and the Pricing of Inventories |
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191 | (2) |
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193 | (1) |
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Example: A Linear Risk-Sharing Rule |
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194 | (11) |
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Information Asymmetry: Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection |
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195 | (1) |
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196 | (1) |
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197 | (2) |
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199 | (1) |
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200 | (5) |
Chapter 7 Derivative Finance and Complete Markets |
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205 | (54) |
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205 | (5) |
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The Arrow-Debreu Fundamental Approach to Asset Pricing |
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206 | (4) |
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Example: Generalization to n States |
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210 | (2) |
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Example: Binomial Option Pricing |
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212 | (1) |
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Problem 7.1: The Implied Risk-Neutral Probability |
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213 | (1) |
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Example: The Price of a Call Option |
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213 | (2) |
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Example: A Generalization to Multiple Periods |
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215 | (3) |
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Problem 7.2: Options and Their Prices |
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218 | (1) |
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218 | (1) |
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Problem 7.3: Proving the Put-Call Parity |
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219 | (1) |
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Example: Put-Call Parity and Dividend Payments |
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219 | (1) |
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Problem 7.4: Options Put-Call Parity |
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220 | (7) |
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The Price Deflator and the Pricing Martingale |
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220 | (2) |
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Pricing and Complete Markets |
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222 | (4) |
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Risk-Neutral Pricing and Market Completeness |
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224 | (2) |
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226 | (3) |
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Packaged and Binary Options |
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227 | (1) |
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Example: Look-Back Options |
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227 | (1) |
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227 | (1) |
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Example: Exchange Options |
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228 | (1) |
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228 | (1) |
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Example: Barrier and Other Options |
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228 | (1) |
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Example: Passport Options |
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229 | (2) |
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Options and Their Real Uses |
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229 | (2) |
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231 | (1) |
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Example: Pricing a Forward |
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231 | (1) |
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Example: Pricing a Fixed-Rate Bond |
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232 | (2) |
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Pricing a Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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232 | (2) |
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Example: The Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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234 | (1) |
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Problem 7.5: Annuities and Obligations |
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235 | (5) |
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Options Trading, Speculation, and Risk Management |
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235 | (5) |
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Option Trading Strategies |
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237 | (3) |
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Problem 7.6: Portfolio Strategies |
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240 | (9) |
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245 | (1) |
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246 | (5) |
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Essentials of Martingales |
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246 | (2) |
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The Change of Measures and Martingales |
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248 | (1) |
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Example: Change of Measure in a Binomial Model |
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249 | (2) |
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Example: A Two-Stage Random Walk and the Radon Nikodym Derivative |
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251 | (8) |
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Appendix B: Formal Notations, Key Terms, and Definitions |
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253 | (6) |
Chapter 8 Options Applied |
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259 | (32) |
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259 | (5) |
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259 | (7) |
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Risk-Free Portfolios and Immunization |
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260 | (1) |
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261 | (1) |
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262 | (2) |
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Problem 8.1: Pricing a Multiperiod Forward |
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264 | (2) |
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Pricing and New Insurance Business |
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264 | (2) |
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Example: Options Implied Insurance Pricing |
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266 | (25) |
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Option Pricing in a Trinomial Random Walk |
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267 | (2) |
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Pricing and Spread Options |
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269 | (1) |
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270 | (1) |
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Random Volatility and Options Pricing |
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271 | (2) |
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Real Assets and Real Options |
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273 | (3) |
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The Option to Acquire the License for a New Technology |
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275 | (1) |
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The Black-Scholes Vanilla Option |
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276 | (8) |
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The Binomial Process as a Discrete Time Approximation |
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277 | (1) |
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The Black-Scholes Model Option Price and Portfolio Replication |
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278 | (3) |
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Risk-Neutral Pricing and the Pricing Martingale |
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281 | (3) |
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The Greeks and Their Applications |
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284 | (3) |
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287 | (4) |
Chapter 9 Credit Scoring and the Price of Credit Risk |
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291 | (62) |
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291 | (3) |
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291 | (3) |
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294 | (16) |
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Pricing Credit Risk: Principles |
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296 | (3) |
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Credit Scoring and Granting |
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299 | (5) |
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What Is an Individual Credit Score? |
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299 | (1) |
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Bonds Rating or Scoring Business Enterprises |
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300 | (1) |
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Scoring/Rating Financial Enterprises and Financial Products |
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301 | (3) |
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Credit Scoring: Real Approaches |
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304 | (7) |
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The Statistical Estimation of Default |
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305 | (5) |
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310 | (1) |
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Example: The Separatrix and Bayesian Probabilities |
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311 | (3) |
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Probability Default Models |
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312 | (2) |
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Example: A Bivariate Dependent Default Distribution |
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314 | (1) |
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Example: A Portfolio of Default Loans |
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315 | (1) |
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Example: A Portfolio of Dependent Default Loans |
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316 | (1) |
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Problem 9.1: The Joint Bernoulli Default Distribution |
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317 | (2) |
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317 | (2) |
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Example: Credit Granting and Creditor's Risks |
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319 | (3) |
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Example: A Bayesian Default Model |
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322 | (1) |
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Example: A Financial Approach |
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323 | (3) |
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Example: An Approximate Solution |
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326 | (1) |
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Problem 9.2: The Rate of Return of Loans |
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327 | (1) |
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The Reduced Form (Financial) Model |
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327 | (1) |
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Example: Calculating the Spread of a Default Bond |
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328 | (1) |
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Example: The Loan Model Again |
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329 | (1) |
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Example: Pricing Default Bonds |
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330 | (1) |
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Example: Pricing Default Bonds and the Hazard Rate |
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331 | (2) |
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332 | (1) |
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Example: The Bank Interest Rate on a House Loan |
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333 | (1) |
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Example: Buy Insurance to Protect the Portfolio from Loan Defaults |
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333 | (1) |
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Problem 9.3: Use the Portfolio as an Underlying and Buy or Sell Derivatives on This Underlying |
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334 | (1) |
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Problem 9.4: Lending Rates of Return |
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334 | (3) |
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Credit Risk and Collateral Pricing |
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334 | (3) |
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Example: Hedge Funds Rates of Return |
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337 | (1) |
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Example: Equity-Linked Life Insurance |
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338 | (1) |
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Example: Default and the Price of Homes |
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339 | (2) |
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Example: A Bank's Profit from a Loan |
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341 | (12) |
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Risk Management and Leverage |
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342 | (2) |
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344 | (9) |
Chapter 10 Multi-Name and Structured Credit Risk Porfolios |
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353 | (54) |
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353 | (6) |
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353 | (4) |
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357 | (2) |
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Example: Total Return Swaps |
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359 | (1) |
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Pricing Credit Default SwapsThe Implied Market Approach |
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359 | (1) |
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Example: The CDS Price Spread |
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360 | (4) |
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Example: An OTC (Swap) Contract under Risk-Neutral Pricing and Collateral Prices |
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362 | (2) |
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Example: Pricing a Project Launch |
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364 | (12) |
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Credit Derivatives: A Historical Perspective |
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368 | (28) |
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Credit Derivatives: Historical Modeling |
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369 | (3) |
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Credit Derivatives and Product Innovation |
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372 | (4) |
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CDO Example: Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) |
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376 | (1) |
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377 | (3) |
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Modeling Credit Derivatives |
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379 | (1) |
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380 | (1) |
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Example: A CDO with Numbers |
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380 | (2) |
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Example: A CDO of Zero Coupon Bonds |
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382 | (3) |
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Example: A CDO of Default Coupon-Paying bonds |
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385 | (2) |
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Example: A CDO of Rated Bonds |
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387 | (4) |
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Examples: Default Models for Bonds |
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391 | (5) |
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CDO Models and Price Applications |
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395 | (1) |
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Example: The KMV Loss Model |
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396 | (11) |
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CDOs of Baskets of Various Assets |
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397 | (1) |
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Credit Risk versus Insurance |
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398 | (1) |
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399 | (8) |
Chapter 11 Engineered Implied Volatility and Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions |
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407 | (32) |
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407 | (3) |
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407 | (2) |
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409 | (1) |
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Example: The Implied Volatility in a Lognormal Process |
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410 | (3) |
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411 | (1) |
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The Implied Risk-Neutral Distribution |
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412 | (1) |
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Example: An Implied Binomial Distribution |
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413 | (1) |
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Example: Calculating the Implied Risk-Neutral Probability |
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414 | (4) |
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Implied Distributions: Parametric Models |
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417 | (1) |
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Example: The Generalized Beta of the Second Kind |
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418 | (3) |
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The A-parametric Approach and the Black-Scholes Model |
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420 | (1) |
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Example: The Shimko Technique |
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421 | (5) |
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The Implied Risk Neutral Distribution and Entropy |
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423 | (3) |
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Examples and Applications |
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426 | (13) |
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Risk Attitude, Implied Risk-Neutral Distribution and Entropy |
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431 | (1) |
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432 | (1) |
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Appendix: The Implied VolatilityThe Dupire Model |
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433 | (6) |
Acknowledgments |
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439 | (2) |
About the Author |
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441 | (2) |
Index |
|
443 | |