| Preface |
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iii | |
| Summary |
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xv | |
| Acknowledgments |
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xxiii | |
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1 | (10) |
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Are Prevention's Effects Large Enough to Be Worth the Effort? |
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1 | (1) |
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Background and Goals of This Study |
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2 | (2) |
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Our Approach: Its Strengths and Weaknesses |
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4 | (6) |
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5 | (1) |
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6 | (4) |
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Organization of This Report |
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10 | (1) |
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Social Benefit and Cost Results |
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11 | (26) |
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How We Estimate Prevention's Social Benefits |
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11 | (9) |
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Lifetime Drug Use per Person in the Absence of Prevention |
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12 | (3) |
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Percentage Reduction in Lifetime Use Expected from School-Based Prevention |
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15 | (2) |
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Adjustments to Reduction in Use |
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17 | (2) |
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Social Cost per Unit of Use |
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19 | (1) |
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20 | (4) |
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School-Based Prevention's Social Costs |
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24 | (2) |
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Sensitivity of Findings to Variations in Assumptions |
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26 | (5) |
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Other Results of Interest |
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31 | (1) |
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Conclusions and Discussion |
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32 | (5) |
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Lifetime Drug Consumption Without Prevention |
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37 | (18) |
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How Much Do Users Consume over Their Lives? |
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37 | (10) |
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Estimation Method 1: Dividing Consumption over an Historical Period by Initiation |
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38 | (1) |
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Estimation Method 2: Creating a Lifetime Profile of Consumption by Totaling Use Across Respondents of Different Ages |
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39 | (3) |
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Estimation Method 3: Accounting for Evolving Prevalence Patterns Across the Population |
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42 | (1) |
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Results of Applying the Three Estimation Methods to Marijuana Use |
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43 | (1) |
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Results of Applying the Three Estimation Methods to Tobacco Use |
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44 | (1) |
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Results of Applying the Three Estimation Methods to Alcohol Use |
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45 | (2) |
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47 | (1) |
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What Is the Probability That Someone Will Become a User? |
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47 | (5) |
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Estimating Initiation of Cocaine Use |
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50 | (1) |
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Estimating Initiation of Marijuana Use |
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51 | (1) |
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Estimating Initiation of Tobacco Use |
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51 | (1) |
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Estimating Initiation of Alcohol Use |
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51 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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How Should Present and Future Quantities Be Compared? (The Discount Factor) |
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52 | (3) |
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School-Based Prevention's Effectiveness at the End of the Program |
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55 | (12) |
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Selection of Programs upon Which Composite Estimates Are Based |
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56 | (2) |
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Measures of Effectiveness |
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58 | (2) |
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Individual Program Effects |
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60 | (4) |
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Aggregate Program Effects |
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64 | (3) |
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School-Based Prevention's Effectiveness at Reducing Lifetime Drug Use |
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67 | (20) |
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Measuring Decay of Short-Term Effect |
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68 | (3) |
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Taking Account of Length of Initiation Delay |
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71 | (7) |
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Translating Effectiveness Predictors to Results |
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78 | (9) |
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79 | (4) |
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83 | (4) |
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Adjustments to Prevention's Effectiveness |
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87 | (8) |
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Causation Versus Correlation Qualifier |
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88 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (3) |
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93 | (2) |
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Social Costs of Drug Consumption |
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95 | (70) |
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Estimating the Social Cost of Alcohol Use |
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96 | (1) |
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Estimating the Social Cost of Tobacco Use |
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97 | (1) |
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Estimating the Social Cost of Cocaine Use and Use of Illicit Drugs in General |
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98 | (7) |
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Estimating the Social Cost of Marijuana Use |
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105 | (3) |
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108 | (5) |
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A. Low, Medium, and High Estimates for the Ten Factors in the Prevention Model |
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113 | (4) |
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B. Recoding Consumption Values from the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse |
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117 | (4) |
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121 | (6) |
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D. Aggregating Program Effectiveness Data |
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127 | (12) |
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E. Program Effectiveness Decay |
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139 | (16) |
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F. Effects On Lifetime Consumption |
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155 | (10) |
| Bibliography |
|
165 | |
