| Preface |
|
iii | |
| Figures |
|
vii | |
| Tables |
|
ix | |
| Summary |
|
xi | |
| Acknowledgments |
|
xix | |
| Abbreviations |
|
xxi | |
| Chapter One THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS |
|
1 | (10) |
|
Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible |
|
|
3 | (4) |
|
The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development |
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
Surprise: The Constant Element |
|
|
8 | (1) |
|
Organization of This Report |
|
|
8 | (3) |
| Chapter Two A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE |
|
11 | (28) |
|
Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future |
|
|
12 | (4) |
|
Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight |
|
|
16 | (4) |
|
|
|
20 | (5) |
|
Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty |
|
|
25 | (4) |
|
Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures |
|
|
29 | (7) |
|
Assessing the State of the Art |
|
|
36 | (3) |
| Chapter Three ROBUST DECISIONMAKING |
|
39 | (30) |
|
Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty |
|
|
40 | (5) |
|
Consider Ensembles of Scenarios |
|
|
45 | (7) |
|
|
|
52 | (5) |
|
Employ Adaptive Strategies |
|
|
57 | (5) |
|
Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively |
|
|
62 | (4) |
|
|
|
66 | (3) |
| Chapter Four A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION |
|
69 | (18) |
|
The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability |
|
|
69 | (1) |
|
|
|
70 | (17) |
| Chapter Five IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING |
|
87 | (38) |
|
Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development |
|
|
87 | (4) |
|
Landscapes of Plausible Futures |
|
|
91 | (5) |
|
No Fixed Strategy Is Robust |
|
|
96 | (7) |
|
Exploring Near-Term Milestones |
|
|
103 | (7) |
|
Identifying a Robust Strategy |
|
|
110 | (7) |
|
Characterizing Irreducible Risks |
|
|
117 | (4) |
|
Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development |
|
|
121 | (4) |
| Chapter Six POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS |
|
125 | (20) |
|
Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators |
|
|
126 | (5) |
|
|
|
131 | (4) |
|
A Diversity of Measures and Values |
|
|
135 | (2) |
|
Engaging the Community of Stakeholders |
|
|
137 | (4) |
|
Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking |
|
|
141 | (4) |
| Chapter Seven CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES |
|
145 | (4) |
| Appendix |
|
|
A. DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIO GENERATOR |
|
|
149 | (16) |
|
B. ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES |
|
|
165 | (14) |
| Bibliography |
|
179 | |
