Introduction A Roadmap for Understanding Risk |
|
xvii | |
|
Chapters 1-4 The Economists' View of Risk Aversion and the Behavioral Response |
|
|
1 | (96) |
|
|
3 | (8) |
|
A Very Short History of Risk |
|
|
3 | (2) |
|
|
5 | (2) |
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
|
8 | (1) |
|
The Conventional View and Its Limitations |
|
|
8 | (1) |
|
A More Expansive View of Risk Management |
|
|
9 | (1) |
|
|
9 | (2) |
|
Chapter 2 Why Do We Care About Risk? |
|
|
11 | (24) |
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
I Am Rich, But Am I Happy? Utility and Wealth |
|
|
12 | (6) |
|
The St. Petersburg Paradox and Expected Utility: The Bernoulli Contribution |
|
|
12 | (2) |
|
Mathematics Meets Economics: Von Neumann and Morgenstern |
|
|
14 | (2) |
|
|
16 | (1) |
|
Small Versus Large Gambles |
|
|
17 | (1) |
|
|
18 | (10) |
|
|
18 | (2) |
|
Risk Aversion Coefficients |
|
|
20 | (3) |
|
Other Views on Risk Aversion |
|
|
23 | (3) |
|
|
26 | (2) |
|
Consequences of Views on Risk |
|
|
28 | (2) |
|
|
28 | (1) |
|
|
29 | (1) |
|
|
30 | (1) |
|
|
30 | (5) |
|
Chapter 3 What Do We Think About Risk? |
|
|
35 | (30) |
|
|
35 | (1) |
|
Evidence on Risk Aversion |
|
|
36 | (25) |
|
|
36 | (11) |
|
|
47 | (3) |
|
|
50 | (7) |
|
Evidence from Racetracks, Gambling, and Game Shows |
|
|
57 | (4) |
|
Propositions about Risk Aversion |
|
|
61 | (2) |
|
|
63 | (2) |
|
Chapter 4 How Do We Measure Risk? |
|
|
65 | (32) |
|
Fate and Divine Providence |
|
|
65 | (1) |
|
Estimating Probabilities: The First Step to Quantifying Risk |
|
|
66 | (2) |
|
Sampling, The Normal Distributions, and Updating |
|
|
68 | (2) |
|
The Use of Data: Life Tables and Estimates |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
The Insurance View of Risk |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
Financial Assets and the Advent of Statistical Risk Measures |
|
|
71 | (2) |
|
|
73 | (4) |
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
The Mean-Variance Framework |
|
|
74 | (2) |
|
Implications for Risk Assessment |
|
|
76 | (1) |
|
Introducing the Riskless Asset---The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Arrives |
|
|
77 | (1) |
|
|
78 | (5) |
|
Fat Tails and Power-Law distributions |
|
|
79 | (2) |
|
|
81 | (2) |
|
|
83 | (1) |
|
Data Power: Arbitrage Pricing and Multifactor Models |
|
|
83 | (3) |
|
|
84 | (1) |
|
Multifactor and Proxy Models |
|
|
85 | (1) |
|
The Evolution of Risk Measures |
|
|
86 | (1) |
|
|
86 | (11) |
|
Chapters 5-8 Risk Assessment: Tools and Techniques |
|
|
97 | (180) |
|
Chapter 5 Risk-Adjusted Value |
|
|
99 | (46) |
|
Discounted Cash Flow Approaches |
|
|
99 | (18) |
|
The DCF Value of an Asset |
|
|
100 | (1) |
|
Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates |
|
|
101 | (5) |
|
Certainty-Equivalent Cash Flows |
|
|
106 | (5) |
|
|
111 | (5) |
|
DCF Risk Adjustment: Pluses and Minuses |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
Post-Valuation Risk Adjustment |
|
|
117 | (11) |
|
Rationale for Post-Valuation Adjustments |
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
|
118 | (7) |
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
|
126 | (1) |
|
The Dangers of Post-Valuation Adjustments |
|
|
127 | (1) |
|
Relative Valuation Approaches |
|
|
128 | (2) |
|
|
128 | (1) |
|
|
129 | (1) |
|
DCF Versus Relative Valuation |
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
The Practice of Risk Adjustment |
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
|
131 | (5) |
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
|
137 | (5) |
|
Determinants of Illiquidity Discounts |
|
|
137 | (2) |
|
Estimating Firm-Specific Illiquidity Discount |
|
|
139 | (3) |
|
|
142 | (1) |
|
|
143 | (2) |
|
Chapter 6 Probabilistic Approaches: Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees, and Simulations |
|
|
145 | (56) |
|
|
145 | (8) |
|
|
146 | (1) |
|
Multiple Scenario Analysis |
|
|
147 | (6) |
|
|
153 | (11) |
|
Steps in Decision Tree Analysis |
|
|
153 | (3) |
|
An Example of a Decision Tree |
|
|
156 | (4) |
|
|
160 | (1) |
|
|
161 | (1) |
|
Risk-Adjusted Value and Decision Trees |
|
|
162 | (2) |
|
|
164 | (15) |
|
|
164 | (4) |
|
An Example of a Simulation |
|
|
168 | (5) |
|
|
173 | (1) |
|
Simulations with Constraints |
|
|
174 | (2) |
|
|
176 | (1) |
|
Risk-Adjusted Value and Simulations |
|
|
177 | (2) |
|
An Overall Assessment of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches |
|
|
179 | (3) |
|
|
179 | (1) |
|
Complement or Replacement for Risk Adjusted Value |
|
|
180 | (1) |
|
|
181 | (1) |
|
|
182 | (1) |
|
|
183 | (13) |
|
Is the Data Discrete or Continuous? |
|
|
183 | (5) |
|
How Symmetric Is the Data? |
|
|
188 | (6) |
|
Are There Upper or Lower Limits on Data Values? |
|
|
194 | (1) |
|
How Likely Are You to See Extreme Values of Data, Relative to the Middle Values? |
|
|
195 | (1) |
|
|
196 | (2) |
|
|
198 | (1) |
|
|
199 | (2) |
|
Chapter 7 Value at Risk (VaR) |
|
|
201 | (30) |
|
|
201 | (1) |
|
|
202 | (2) |
|
|
204 | (14) |
|
Variance-Covariance Method |
|
|
204 | (6) |
|
|
210 | (4) |
|
|
214 | (3) |
|
|
217 | (1) |
|
|
218 | (5) |
|
|
218 | (3) |
|
|
221 | (1) |
|
|
222 | (1) |
|
|
223 | (2) |
|
VaR as a Risk Assessment Tool |
|
|
225 | (2) |
|
|
227 | (4) |
|
|
231 | (46) |
|
The Essence of Real Options |
|
|
231 | (2) |
|
Real Options, Risk-Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments |
|
|
233 | (2) |
|
|
235 | (22) |
|
The Option to Delay an Investment |
|
|
235 | (11) |
|
|
246 | (7) |
|
The Option to Abandon an Investment |
|
|
253 | (4) |
|
|
257 | (3) |
|
Real Options in a Risk Management Framework |
|
|
260 | (1) |
|
|
261 | (1) |
|
|
262 | (2) |
|
Determinants of Option Value |
|
|
264 | (2) |
|
|
266 | (11) |
|
|
266 | (4) |
|
|
270 | (7) |
|
Chapters 9-12 Risk Management: The Big Picture |
|
|
277 | (102) |
|
Chapter 9 Risk Management: The Big Picture |
|
|
279 | (30) |
|
Risk and Value: The Conventional View |
|
|
280 | (7) |
|
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation |
|
|
280 | (5) |
|
Relative Valuation Models |
|
|
285 | (2) |
|
Expanding the Analysis of Risk |
|
|
287 | (14) |
|
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation |
|
|
288 | (7) |
|
|
295 | (3) |
|
|
298 | (3) |
|
A Final Assessment of Risk Management |
|
|
301 | (3) |
|
When Does Risk Hedging Pay Off? |
|
|
302 | (1) |
|
When Does Risk Management Pay Off? |
|
|
303 | (1) |
|
Risk Hedging Versus Risk Management |
|
|
303 | (1) |
|
Developing a Risk Management Strategy |
|
|
304 | (2) |
|
|
306 | (3) |
|
Chapter 10 Risk Management: Profiling and Hedging |
|
|
309 | (32) |
|
|
309 | (10) |
|
|
310 | (1) |
|
Step 2 Categorize the Risks |
|
|
310 | (1) |
|
Step 3 Measure Exposure to Each Risk |
|
|
311 | (7) |
|
|
318 | (1) |
|
To Hedge or Not to Hedge? |
|
|
319 | (12) |
|
|
319 | (1) |
|
|
320 | (6) |
|
The Prevalence of Hedging |
|
|
326 | (3) |
|
Does Hedging Increase Value? |
|
|
329 | (2) |
|
Alternative Techniques for Hedging Risk |
|
|
331 | (8) |
|
|
331 | (1) |
|
|
332 | (1) |
|
|
333 | (1) |
|
|
334 | (4) |
|
Picking the Right Hedging Tool |
|
|
338 | (1) |
|
|
339 | (2) |
|
Chapter 11 Strategic Risk Management |
|
|
341 | (26) |
|
|
341 | (4) |
|
|
342 | (2) |
|
Evidence on Risk Taking and Value |
|
|
344 | (1) |
|
|
345 | (11) |
|
The Information Advantage |
|
|
346 | (2) |
|
|
348 | (2) |
|
The Experience/Knowledge Advantage |
|
|
350 | (2) |
|
|
352 | (1) |
|
|
353 | (3) |
|
Building the Risk-Taking Organization |
|
|
356 | (9) |
|
|
356 | (2) |
|
|
358 | (2) |
|
Reward/Punishment Mechanisms |
|
|
360 | (3) |
|
Organization Size, Structure, and Culture |
|
|
363 | (2) |
|
|
365 | (2) |
|
Chapter 12 Risk Management: First Principles |
|
|
367 | (12) |
|
|
367 | (2) |
|
2 Risk Is Threat and Opportunity |
|
|
369 | (1) |
|
3 We Are Ambivalent About Risks and Not Always Rational About the Way We Assess or Deal with Risk |
|
|
369 | (1) |
|
4 Not All Risk Is Created Equal |
|
|
370 | (2) |
|
|
372 | (1) |
|
6 Good Risk Measurement/Assessment Should Lead to Better Decisions |
|
|
373 | (1) |
|
7 The Key to Good Risk Management Is Deciding Which Risks to Avoid, Which Ones to Pass Through, and Which to Exploit |
|
|
374 | (1) |
|
8 The Payoff to Better Risk Management Is Higher Value |
|
|
375 | (1) |
|
9 Risk Management Is Part of Everyone's Job |
|
|
376 | (1) |
|
10 Successful Risk-Taking Organizations Do Not Get There by Accident |
|
|
376 | (2) |
|
|
378 | (1) |
Index |
|
379 | |