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Systemic Decision Making: Fundamentals for Addressing Problems and Messes 2nd ed. 2017 [Kietas viršelis]

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  • Formatas: Hardback, 414 pages, aukštis x plotis: 235x155 mm, weight: 8668 g, 67 Illustrations, color; 95 Illustrations, black and white; XXVIII, 414 p. 162 illus., 67 illus. in color., 1 Hardback
  • Serija: Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality 33
  • Išleidimo metai: 03-May-2017
  • Leidėjas: Springer International Publishing AG
  • ISBN-10: 3319546716
  • ISBN-13: 9783319546711
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Systemic Decision Making: Fundamentals for Addressing Problems and Messes 2nd ed. 2017Didesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: Hardback, 414 pages, aukštis x plotis: 235x155 mm, weight: 8668 g, 67 Illustrations, color; 95 Illustrations, black and white; XXVIII, 414 p. 162 illus., 67 illus. in color., 1 Hardback
  • Serija: Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality 33
  • Išleidimo metai: 03-May-2017
  • Leidėjas: Springer International Publishing AG
  • ISBN-10: 3319546716
  • ISBN-13: 9783319546711
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Pastovi nuoroda: https://www.kriso.lt/db/9783319546711.html
Raktažodžiai:

This expanded second edition of the 2014 textbook features dedicated sections on action and observation, so that the reader can combine the use of the developed theoretical basis with practical guidelines for deployment. It also includes a focus on selection and use of a dedicated modeling paradigm – fuzzy cognitive mapping – to facilitate use of the proposed multi-methodology. The end goal of the text is a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to structuring and assessing complex problems, including a dedicated discussion of thinking, acting, and observing complex problems. The multi-methodology developed is scientifically grounded in systems theory and its accompanying principles, while the process emphasizes the nonlinear nature of all complex problem-solving endeavors. The authors’ clear and consistent chapter structure facilitates the book’s use in the classroom.

Recenzijos

The decision-making process proposed by Hester and Adas is based on systemic thinking through the application of a three-stage process: think, analyze and observe, giving greater importance to global results. The language used by the authors is accessible to entire public: no prior training is required to read it. a remarkable work that should not be missing in the library of the specialist, the technician and the student. (Melio Sįenz, ResearchGate, researchgate.net, February, 2018)

Part I A Frame of Reference for Systemic Decision Making
1 Introduction
3(14)
1.1 The TAO Approach
3(1)
1.2 Systems Errors
4(10)
1.2.1 Type III Error
5(1)
1.2.2 Type IV Error
6(1)
1.2.3 Type V Error
7(1)
1.2.4 Type VIII Error
8(1)
1.2.5 Type I and Type II Errors
9(1)
1.2.6 Type VI Error
9(1)
1.2.7 Type VII Error
10(1)
1.2.8 Analysis of Errors
11(3)
1.3 Summary
14(1)
References
15(2)
2 Problems and Messes
17(18)
2.1 A Brief Introduction to Complexity
17(4)
2.1.1 Understanding Complexity
17(2)
2.1.2 The Machine Age and the Systems Age
19(2)
2.2 Dealing with Systems Age Messes
21(3)
2.2.1 Scientific Approaches to Complex Problems
21(1)
2.2.2 Perspectives in Complex Problems
22(2)
2.3 Holistic Understanding
24(2)
2.4 What's the Problem?
26(3)
2.5 Problem Structuring
29(3)
2.6 Summary
32(1)
References
32(3)
3 Systemic Thinking
35(20)
3.1 A Brief Background of Systems Approaches
35(5)
3.2 What Is Systemic Thinking?
40(8)
3.2.1 Age or Era
41(1)
3.2.2 Unit of Analysis
41(1)
3.2.3 Mathematical Formulation
42(1)
3.2.4 Goal
43(1)
3.2.5 Underlying Philosophy
44(2)
3.2.6 Epistemology
46(1)
3.2.7 Ontology
46(1)
3.2.8 Disciplinary Scope
47(1)
3.2.9 Participants
48(1)
3.3 A Multimethodology for Systemic Decision Making
48(3)
3.4 Summary
51(1)
References
52(3)
4 Systems Theory
55(46)
4.1 Overview
55(1)
4.2 Historical Roots of Systems Theory
56(4)
4.2.1 General Systems Theory
56(1)
4.2.2 Living Systems Theory
57(1)
4.2.3 Mathematical Systems Theory
57(1)
4.2.4 Cybernetics
58(1)
4.2.5 Social Systems Theory
59(1)
4.2.6 Philosophical Systems Theory
59(1)
4.2.7 Historical Roots of Systems Theory Summary
60(1)
4.3 Systems Theory
60(3)
4.4 Centrality Axiom
63(5)
4.4.1 Emergence
63(1)
4.4.2 Hierarchy
64(1)
4.4.3 Communications
65(2)
4.4.4 Control
67(1)
4.5 The Contextual Axiom
68(2)
4.5.1 Holism
68(1)
4.5.2 Darkness
69(1)
4.5.3 Complementarity
70(1)
4.6 The Goal Axiom
70(3)
4.6.1 Equifinality and Multifinality
70(1)
4.6.2 Purposive Behavior
71(1)
4.6.3 Satisfying
72(1)
4.7 The Operational Axiom
73(4)
4.7.1 Dynamic Equilibrium
73(1)
4.7.2 Relaxation Time
73(1)
4.7.3 Basins of Stability
74(1)
4.7.4 Self-organization
75(1)
4.7.5 Homeostasis and Homeorhesis
75(1)
4.7.6 Suboptimization
76(1)
4.7.7 Redundancy
77(1)
4.8 The Viability Axiom
77(10)
4.8.1 Viability Principle
78(6)
4.8.2 Requisite Variety
84(1)
4.8.3 Requisite Hierarchy
84(1)
4.8.4 Circular Causality
85(1)
4.8.5 Recursion
85(2)
4.9 The Design Axiom
87(3)
4.9.1 Requisite Parsimony
87(1)
4.9.2 Requisite Saliency
87(1)
4.9.3 Minimum Critical Specification
88(1)
4.9.4 Power Laws
88(2)
4.10 The Information Axiom
90(3)
4.10.1 Information Redundancy
90(1)
4.10.2 Principle of Information Channel Capacity
91(1)
4.10.3 Principle of Information Entropy
91(1)
4.10.4 Redundancy of Potential Command
92(1)
4.10.5 Information Inaccessibility
93(1)
4.11 Summary
93(1)
References
94(7)
5 Complex Systems Modeling
101(30)
5.1 Introduction
101(1)
5.2 The Role of Modeling
102(1)
5.3 Method Comparison
103(4)
5.4 Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping
107(4)
5.5 A Framework for FCM Development
111(7)
5.5.1 Step 1: Clarification of Project Objectives and Information Needs
112(1)
5.5.2 Step 2: Plans for Knowledge Elicitation
113(1)
5.5.3 Step 3: Knowledge Capture
113(3)
5.5.4 Step 4: FCM Calibration and Step 5: Testing (Step 5)
116(1)
5.5.5 Step 6: Model Use and Interpretation
117(1)
5.6 Example FCM Application
118(5)
5.7 Summary
123(1)
References
124(7)
Part II Thinking Systemically
6 The Who of Systemic Thinking
131(26)
6.1 Stakeholder Analysis
131(3)
6.2 Brainstorm Stakeholders
134(2)
6.3 Classify Stakeholders
136(2)
6.4 Evaluate Stakeholder Attitudes
138(5)
6.5 Map Stakeholder Objectives
143(1)
6.6 Determine Stakeholder Engagement Priority
144(4)
6.7 Develop a Stakeholder Management Plan
148(1)
6.8 Manage Stakeholders
149(1)
6.9 Framework for Addressing Who in Messes and Problems
150(1)
6.10 Example Problem
150(5)
6.10.1 Example Stakeholder Brainstorming
151(1)
6.10.2 Example Stakeholder Classification
151(1)
6.10.3 Example Stakeholder Attitude Evaluation
152(1)
6.10.4 Example Stakeholder Objective Mapping
152(1)
6.10.5 Example Stakeholder Engagement Priority
153(1)
6.10.6 Example Stakeholder Management Plan
154(1)
6.11 Summary
155(1)
References
155(2)
7 The What of Systemic Thinking
157(16)
7.1 Anatomy of a Problem
157(2)
7.2 The Importance of Objectives
159(1)
7.3 Objective Identification
159(2)
7.4 Objective Organization
161(3)
7.5 Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy
164(2)
7.6 Means-Ends Network
166(1)
7.7 Framework for Addressing What in Messes and Problems
167(4)
7.7.1 Articulate Objectives
168(1)
7.7.2 Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy
168(1)
7.7.3 Means-Ends Network
168(1)
7.7.4 FCM Update
169(2)
7.8 Summary
171(1)
References
171(2)
8 The Why of Systemic Thinking
173(34)
8.1 Overview
173(1)
8.2 Motivation
174(1)
8.3 Categorizing Theories of Motivation
175(1)
8.4 Theories of Motivation
176(19)
8.4.1 Instinct Theory of Motivation
176(2)
8.4.2 Drive Reduction Theory of Motivation
178(1)
8.4.3 Hierarchy of Needs
179(1)
8.4.4 Attribution Theory of Motivation
179(1)
8.4.5 Reinforcement Theory of Motivation
180(1)
8.4.6 Social Comparison Theory of Motivation
181(1)
8.4.7 Path-Goal Theory of Motivation
182(1)
8.4.8 Social Exchange Theory of Motivation
183(1)
8.4.9 Theory X and Theory Y
183(1)
8.4.10 Cognitive Dissonance Theory of Motivation
184(2)
8.4.11 Equity Theory of Motivation
186(1)
8.4.12 Social Learning Theory of Motivation
187(1)
8.4.13 Expectancy Theory of Motivation
188(1)
8.4.14 Motivator-Hygiene Theory of Motivation
189(1)
8.4.15 Acquired Needs Theory of Motivation
190(1)
8.4.16 ERG Theory of Motivation
190(1)
8.4.17 Self-determination Theory of Motivation
191(1)
8.4.18 Opponent Process Theory of Motivation
192(1)
8.4.19 Goal-Setting Theory of Motivation
192(1)
8.4.20 Reversal Theory of Motivation
193(2)
8.5 Applying Theories of Motivation
195(4)
8.5.1 Cybernetics and Control Theory
195(1)
8.5.2 Klein's Integrated Control Theory Model of Work Motivation
196(3)
8.6 Framework for Addressing Why in Messes and Problems
199(1)
8.7 Example Problem
199(2)
8.7.1 Motivation/Feedback Analysis
200(1)
8.7.2 FCM Update
201(1)
8.7.3 Proposed Changes During Act Stage
201(1)
8.8 Summary
201(1)
References
202(5)
9 The Where of Systemic Thinking
207(24)
9.1 Introduction
207(1)
9.2 Context
207(11)
9.2.1 Perspectives and Context
208(1)
9.2.2 Description and Definitions for Context
209(2)
9.2.3 Elements of Context
211(1)
9.2.4 Temporal Aspects of Context
212(1)
9.2.5 Cultural Values and Their Impact on the Development of Context
213(1)
9.2.6 Data, Information, and Knowledge
214(2)
9.2.7 Inclusion of Context
216(2)
9.3 Boundaries and the Environment
218(6)
9.3.1 Definitions for Boundary and Environment
218(1)
9.3.2 The Significance of Boundary Establishment
219(1)
9.3.3 Boundary Classification
220(1)
9.3.4 Ulrich's Framework of Twelve Critically Heuristic Boundary Categories
221(1)
9.3.5 Force Field Diagrams
222(2)
9.4 Framework for Addressing Where in Messes and Problems
224(1)
9.5 Example Problem
224(4)
9.5.1 Boundary Articulation
224(1)
9.5.2 Context
225(1)
9.5.3 Force Field Diagram
226(1)
9.5.4 Updated FCM
226(1)
9.5.5 Proposed Ought-to-Be Changes
226(2)
9.6 Summary
228(1)
References
228(3)
10 The How of Systemic Thinking
231(22)
10.1 Overview
231(1)
10.2 Mechanisms
231(8)
10.2.1 Physical Classification for Mechanisms
232(1)
10.2.2 Human Classification for Mechanisms
233(5)
10.2.3 Abstract Classification of Mechanisms
238(1)
10.3 Methods as Mechanisms for Messes and Constituent Problems
239(6)
10.3.1 Sensemaking
239(1)
10.3.2 Pragmatic Intersection of Knowledge and Information
240(1)
10.3.3 Framework for Sensemaking
241(4)
10.4 Cynefin Domain and Mechanism Types
245(3)
10.4.1 Cynefin and the Strategic Decision Making Pyramid
245(3)
10.5 Framework for Addressing How in Messes and Problems
248(1)
10.6 Example Problem
249(1)
10.6.1 Cynefin Analysis
249(1)
10.6.2 Mechanism Analysis
249(1)
10.6.3 Updated FCM
250(1)
10.7 Summary
250(1)
References
251(2)
11 The When of Systemic Thinking
253(24)
11.1 Life Cycles and Maturity
253(6)
11.2 Evolution
259(3)
11.3 Entropy
262(4)
11.4 Another View of Sensemaking
266(2)
11.5 Decision Flowchart for Addressing When in Messes and Problems
268(2)
11.6 Framework for Addressing When in Messes and Problems
270(1)
11.7 Example Problem
270(3)
11.7.1 Timescale Assessment
270(2)
11.7.2 Intervention Timing
272(1)
11.8 Summary and Implications for Systemic Thinking
273(1)
References
273(4)
Part III Acting Systemically
12 Systemic Action
277(6)
12.1 Mess Reconstruction
277(1)
12.2 The What Is Meta-Perspective
278(1)
12.3 The What Ought-to-Be Meta-Perspective
279(1)
12.4 Example Analysis
280(1)
12.5 Iteration
281(1)
12.6 Summary
281(1)
References
281(2)
13 Anatomy of a Decision
283(20)
13.1 Introduction
283(1)
13.2 Roles
284(1)
13.3 Decision Analysis
285(2)
13.4 Decision Science
287(1)
13.5 The Decision Process
288(5)
13.5.1 Measuring Performance
290(3)
13.6 Framework for Action in Messes and Problems
293(1)
13.7 Example Action Analysis
293(3)
13.8 Additional Concerns
296(6)
13.8.1 Decision Robustness
296(3)
13.8.2 Decision Optimality
299(3)
13.9 Summary
302(1)
References
302(1)
14 Decision Implementation
303(14)
14.1 Introduction
303(1)
14.2 Human Error Classification
303(4)
14.3 Classification and Performance Levels
307(1)
14.4 Human Error Management
307(2)
14.5 Latent and Active Failures
309(2)
14.6 Human Error Prevention
311(3)
14.7 Summary
314(1)
References
314(3)
Part IV Observing Systemically
15 Observation
317(18)
15.1 Introduction
317(1)
15.2 Avoiding the Type I and Type II Errors
318(1)
15.3 Observation
319(5)
15.3.1 A Model for the Process of Observation
319(2)
15.3.2 Theory-Laden Observation
321(1)
15.3.3 Data, Information, Knowledge and Observation
322(2)
15.4 Observation and Situated Cognition
324(2)
15.4.1 Technological System in the DMSC
325(1)
15.4.2 Cognitive System in the DMSC
326(1)
15.4.3 Cybernetic Nature of the DMSC
326(1)
15.5 Measurement and Observation
326(1)
15.6 Bias and Heuristics in Observation
327(5)
15.6.1 Availability Heuristic
328(1)
15.6.2 Representativeness Heuristic
328(1)
15.6.3 Conjunction Fallacy
329(1)
15.6.4 Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
330(1)
15.6.5 Recognition Heuristic
330(1)
15.6.6 Confirmation Bias
330(2)
15.7 Summary
332(1)
References
332(3)
16 Systemic Learning
335(16)
16.1 Introduction
335(1)
16.2 Learning Theory
336(3)
16.2.1 Gregory Bateson and Early Learning Theory
336(1)
16.2.2 Cybernetics and Learning Theory
337(1)
16.2.3 Chris Argyris, Donald Schon, and Learning Theory
338(1)
16.3 Relating Performance to First-order, Second-order, and Deutero-Learning
339(1)
16.4 Learning in Organizations
340(6)
16.4.1 Strategy and Competitive Advantage
341(1)
16.4.2 Competitive Advantage and Organizational Learning
341(2)
16.4.3 Leaders and the Learning Organization
343(1)
16.4.4 Workers in the Learning Organization
343(1)
16.4.5 Leadership Challenges in the Learning Organization
343(3)
16.5 Avoiding the Type VI Error
346(2)
16.6 Summary
348(1)
References
348(3)
17 Ford Pinto Case Study
351(34)
17.1 Introduction
351(1)
17.2 Problem Structuring
351(1)
17.3 Problem 1: Ford Problem
352(14)
17.3.1 Who Perspective
352(4)
17.3.2 What Perspective
356(3)
17.3.3 Why Perspective
359(1)
17.3.4 Where Perspective
359(3)
17.3.5 How Perspective
362(2)
17.3.6 When Perspective
364(2)
17.4 Problem 2: NHTSA Problem
366(13)
17.4.1 Who Perspective
366(4)
17.4.2 What Perspective
370(2)
17.4.3 Why Perspective
372(1)
17.4.4 Where Perspective
373(3)
17.4.5 How Perspective
376(1)
17.4.6 When Perspective
377(2)
17.5 Ford Pinto Mess
379(5)
17.6 Conclusions
384(1)
Reference
384(1)
18 Conclusion
385(6)
18.1 Part I: A Frame of Reference for Systemic Thinking
385(1)
18.2 Part II: Thinking Systemically
386(1)
18.3 Part III: Acting Systemically
387(1)
18.4 Part IV: Observing Systemically
388(1)
18.5 Summary
388(1)
Reference
389(2)
Appendix A Real Estate Problem 2 391(16)
Index 407
Dr. Patrick T. Hester is an Associate Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at Old Dominion University. Dr. Hester received a Ph.D. in Risk and Reliability Engineering from Vanderbilt University and a B.S. in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering from the Webb Institute. He has been involved in research and consulting activities focused on systems thinking and decision analysis for diverse agencies including NIST, Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division, NASA Langley Research Center, DHS, Sandia National Laboratories, NOAA, TRADOC, and General Dynamics National Steel and Shipbuilding Company. The results of his research have led to over one hundred publications in books, journals, and conferences. His research has been published in Systems Engineering, International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, International Journal of Operations Research, International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, and Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, among others. Dr. Hester is a Senior member of the Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (IISE), the Performance Management Association, and the International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, a Board member of IISEs Society of Engineering and Management Systems, and an Editorial Board Member of Systemic Practice and Action Research. He is a two-time Outstanding Author Contribution Award Winner from the Emerald Literati Network, and in 2016, he was named one of 20 Engineering Management Professors You Should Know by OnlineEngineeringPrograms.com. 









Dr. Kevin Adams is a much sought after speaker and lecturer who specializes in providing systems-based solutions for complex real-world problems. He is the author of books on systemic thinking and non-functional requirements and has published over 50 articles in peer-reviewed journals and conference proceedings.

His presentations merge both philosophical and theoretical concepts from academia with the everyday problems being faced by businesses operating in the highly connected, fast-paced, global economy providing effective and lasting solutions. Kevins systems-based solutions emphasize the importance of organizational stakeholders and the use of tailored methodologies for each and every solution.

His unique foundation for problem solving is based upon over 35 years of practical management experience. He has been able to integrate his first career in the United States Navy, where he served aboard three submarines and as a maintenance officer with second and third careers as a private-sector information technology consultant specializing in enterprise solutions and as an academic teaching in both engineering and management curriculums.

He is currently an adjunct associate professor at the University of Maryland University College and Virginia Wesleyan College. He volunteers on the Editorial Board of the Journal Systemic Practice and Action Research and as a Program Evaluator for the Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET). Dr. Adams is a retired Navy submarine engineering duty officer, and a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).

Dr. Adams is a member of Tau Beta Bi (NJ Beta) - the National Engineering Honor Society, Keramos - the National Ceramic Engineering Honor Society, and Phi Kappa Phi, the nation's oldest, largest, and most selective collegiate honor society for all academic disciplines.

Dr. Adams hold engineering degrees from Rutgers University (B.S.), the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (dual M.S. degrees), and Old Dominion University (Ph.D.).