| Preface |
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v | |
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xi | |
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xiii | |
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xvii | |
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1 | (38) |
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1 World War One as a study object of the economic historian |
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1 | (10) |
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2 The war and sources on how it was perceived by the public |
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11 | (6) |
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3 Capital market data as an alternative indicator of perception |
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17 | (11) |
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3.1 Bond prices - how new an indicator? |
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17 | (2) |
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3.2 What do bond prices say? |
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19 | (4) |
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3.3 Agnostic event analysis |
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23 | (3) |
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3.4 Pros and cons of the "capital market data approach to perception" |
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26 | (2) |
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28 | (11) |
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28 | (2) |
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30 | (5) |
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4.3 Structure of the study |
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35 | (1) |
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36 | (3) |
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II Historical background, sources, and data |
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39 | (66) |
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1 The Netherlands and World War One |
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39 | (8) |
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2 Sources on sovereign bonds traded in Amsterdam |
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47 | (10) |
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2.1 Amsterdam bond prices |
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47 | (8) |
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2.2 Additional bond price and miscellaneous data |
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55 | (2) |
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3 Description of the created sovereign bond database |
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57 | (32) |
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3.1 The Amsterdam cross-section of sovereign bonds |
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57 | (9) |
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3.2 Market price indices and liquidity |
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66 | (12) |
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3.3 Representative bonds versus country indices |
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78 | (3) |
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3.4 Comparative market development and cross-trading |
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81 | (8) |
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4 Potential and limitations of the database |
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89 | (16) |
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89 | (3) |
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92 | (3) |
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4.3 Capital market regulation |
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95 | (1) |
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4.4 Who were the investors? |
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96 | (9) |
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III Turning points in the perception of the Great Powers' war effort |
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105 | (100) |
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105 | (7) |
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2 Which breaks have been detected so far? |
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112 | (5) |
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3 How timetable analysis can help |
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117 | (3) |
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120 | (4) |
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124 | (47) |
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5.1 Shifting mean regressions as the technical point of departure |
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124 | (3) |
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5.2 Turning points in investors' perception at a glance |
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127 | (15) |
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5.3 Explaining turning points in the major powers' series |
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142 | (21) |
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5.4 Explaining turning points in the minor powers' series |
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163 | (8) |
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6 Checking for the turning points' robustness |
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171 | (13) |
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6.1 Including economic variables |
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171 | (8) |
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6.2 Results of the robustness check |
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179 | (5) |
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184 | (21) |
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7.1 Turning points versus blips - the example of Germany |
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185 | (9) |
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7.2 Agnostic turning points versus turning points "informed by historiography" |
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194 | (5) |
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7.3 Simple sovereign bonds-based perception indices |
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199 | (6) |
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IV Perception of alliance credibility |
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205 | (44) |
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205 | (4) |
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2 Alliance formation before and during the war |
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209 | (5) |
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2.1 The various alliances at a glance |
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209 | (2) |
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2.2 Measuring the alliances' strength |
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211 | (3) |
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214 | (3) |
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217 | (8) |
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5 Empirical findings on a "global" test |
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225 | (9) |
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5.1 Starting from a simple approximation of co-movement correlation coefficients |
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225 | (2) |
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5.2 Do we find cointegrating relationships? |
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227 | (7) |
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6 Empirical findings on a "sub-periods" test |
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234 | (10) |
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6.1 Correlation coefficients once more |
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234 | (3) |
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6.2 Was perceived credibility unstable? |
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237 | (7) |
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244 | (5) |
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7.1 Measuring the degree of alliance integration |
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245 | (1) |
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7.2 What can Granger-causality tell? |
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246 | (3) |
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249 | (14) |
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250 | (5) |
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2 Have historians missed out on major events? |
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255 | (1) |
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3 Alliance perception summary |
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256 | (4) |
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260 | (3) |
| List of sources and references |
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263 | (1) |
| Primary sources - Dutch historical newspapers/journals/handbooks/laws |
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263 | (1) |
| Primary sources - contemporary monographs/articles up until 1924 |
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264 | (3) |
| Secondary literature |
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267 | (36) |
| Online Appendix |
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303 | (2) |
| Index |
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305 | |
