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El. knyga: Winners and Losers in the 'Arab Spring': Profiles in Chaos

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This book looks at the way primarily external actors influenced and were influenced by the revolutionary chaos that erupted in the Arab Middle East in 2011. The Arab revolutions radically altered the Middle East dynamic and particularly the strategic standing of key actors, both locally and globally.The ‘winners’ are leaders with strategic understanding of the region and a scheme for exploiting the chaos–Putin, Netanyahu and Iran’s Qasem Soleimani–along with, strikingly, the very institution of Arab monarchy. The ‘losers’ are the Arab autocrats who were deposed in Egypt, Libya and Yemen. The Palestinians, seemingly bypassed by the dynamic of Arab revolution, are also losers. So are the American presidents—Bush 43 and Obama—whose disastrous strategic decision-making catalyzed Arab state fragmentation and opened the gates of the Levant to Iran’s drive for regional hegemony. Western democratic society suffered too—from waves of Islamist terrorism and the effects of Muslim migration generated at least in part by Arab chaos. Only in the case of two leaders was the jury still out by 2019. Saudi Arabia’s brutal reformist crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, put Saudi women in the driver’s seat but butchered and abused political rivals and neighbors alike. And US President Trump’s demand to get America out of the Middle East would actually make some sense in this chaotic context if it were embedded in a cohesive strategy.Winners and Losers in the ‘Arab Spring’ takes a global look at a massive regional upheaval that is far from over. It is an essential read for everybody interested in the Arab revolutions, Middle East and international strategic affairs.

Recenzijos

'At 125 pages, the book is slim but peppered with anecdotes and almost epic in dimensions. Alpher traces Arab state fragmentation and chaos to the 2003 Iraq invasion. He examines the role of individual Western and regional leaders in creating or reacting to events and argues Arab collapse has had global consequences, partly through a refugee crisis. Alpher said hes been repeatedly informed the Arab spring isnt over: This is all open-ended but I think I was able to draw some fairly stable conclusions.' Gareth Smyth, The Arab Weekly 'At 125 pages, the book is slim but peppered with anecdotes and almost epic in dimensions. Alpher traces Arab state fragmentation and chaos to the 2003 Iraq invasion. He examines the role of individual Western and regional leaders in creating or reacting to events and argues Arab collapse has had global consequences, partly through a refugee crisis. Alpher said hes been repeatedly informed the Arab spring isnt over: This is all open-ended but I think I was able to draw some fairly stable conclusions.' Gareth Smyth, The Arab Weekly

Acknowledgments vii
Map of Middle East
viii
Preface: two images ix
Introduction 1(6)
PART I Abetting the chaos: western losers
7(34)
1 Presidential blunders: Bush (and Blair), Obama, Trump
9(14)
2 Hapless western political philosophers, counterproductive social media
23(10)
3 Interim summary: US post-Cold War Intervention and Arab collapse
33(8)
PART II Reaping the benefits: local winners
41(60)
4 Qasem Soleimani and the Quds Force
43(11)
5 Putin: Russia returns to the Middle East
54(12)
6 Netanyahu leverages Arab chaos
66(13)
7 Erdogan and the Kurds: the jury is still out
79(10)
8 The Arab monarchies and MbS's reformist mayhem
89(12)
PART III Conclusion: understanding a global grand strategic event
101(13)
Timeline of Arab chaos through December 2018 114(8)
Bibliography 122(5)
Index 127
Yossi Alpher is a former Mossad official and served in the Israel Defense Forces Intelligence. He was director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies (today INSS) at Tel Aviv University. Now retired, he researches and writes about Middle East strategic issues. His book Periphery: Israels Search for Middle East Allies (2015), won two awards in Israel for best book in the security field.
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