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1 Introduction: Quagmire: The Usual Outcome of Counterinsurgency Warfare |
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1 | (16) |
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2 | (1) |
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Guerrillas Have the Advantage in COIN Wars |
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3 | (3) |
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Guerrillas Not Winning the Support of the People Is Rare |
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6 | (1) |
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Governments Disregard History and Continue to Jump into COIN Wars |
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7 | (10) |
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2 When to Battle Insurgents |
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17 | (28) |
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The Different Types of Guerrilla Wars |
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18 | (1) |
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Losing COIN Both Militarily and Politically |
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19 | (8) |
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Winning COIN Militarily, but Losing Politically |
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27 | (5) |
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Losing COIN Militarily, but Winning a Larger Conflict |
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32 | (1) |
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COIN War Ending in Negotiated Settlement or Concessions by COIN Forces |
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33 | (2) |
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Closely Examining the Minority of Cases in which COIN Forces Won Both Militarily and Politically |
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35 | (7) |
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42 | (3) |
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45 | (12) |
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Scorched Earth Sometimes Succeeds |
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46 | (1) |
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In the Modern World, a Classical COIN Strategy Is Probably Best |
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47 | (2) |
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But COIN Doesn't Always Work |
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49 | (1) |
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Insurgency More Cost Effective Than Counterinsurgency |
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50 | (2) |
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A Classic COIN Strategy Requires More Forces Than Does Blasting Rebels |
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52 | (2) |
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54 | (3) |
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57 | (6) |
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Successful Episodes Involving Concessions or Compromise |
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57 | (3) |
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60 | (2) |
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62 | (1) |
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5 The Disadvantage of Foreign Occupiers |
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63 | (14) |
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A Nationalist Reaction Against Foreign Occupation Can Make Revolt Potent |
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63 | (1) |
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Nationalist-Based Insurgencies Are the Most Effective |
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64 | (2) |
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Even Factionalized Nationalist Movements Can Win a Guerrilla War |
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66 | (1) |
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Governments Can Occasionally Hold the Nationalist Card Vis-a-Vis Guerrillas |
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66 | (1) |
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But It Doesn't Always Take Nationalist Movements to Win Guerrilla Wars |
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67 | (1) |
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Guerrillas Have Advantages in Propaganda Use |
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68 | (1) |
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Foreign Occupiers Are Rarely Given the Benefit of the Doubt by Locals |
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69 | (1) |
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And Some Local Guerrillas Can (Literally) Get Away with Murder |
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70 | (1) |
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Foreign Occupiers Are Handicapped by Poor Knowledge of Local Conditions |
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71 | (2) |
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If Foreign Forces Are Used Instead of Training Local Ones, Winning Is Problematical |
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73 | (1) |
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The Advantage of Local Forces Compared to an Outsider |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (2) |
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6 The Guerrilla Advantage |
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77 | (8) |
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Despite Advances in Technology, Guerrillas Retain Advantages |
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78 | (2) |
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Guerrillas May Try to Provoke COIN Forces into an Overreaction |
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80 | (3) |
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83 | (2) |
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7 COIN Forces' Advantages: Firepower, Numbers, and Technology |
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85 | (18) |
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COIN Forces' Use of Excessive Firepower Often Backfires |
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88 | (3) |
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Targeted Killings of Guerrilla Leaders May Backfire as a COIN Strategy |
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91 | (1) |
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Scorched Earth Policies Can Sometimes Work |
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92 | (1) |
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Sometimes Even Benevolent Policies Are Not Successful |
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93 | (1) |
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Lack of Political Will Can Be a Problem in COIN |
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94 | (1) |
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Expanding Indigenous Forces to Take Over Can Be Difficult |
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95 | (1) |
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COIN Forces May Develop Tactical Innovations but Still Lose the War |
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95 | (4) |
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Waging COIN Is a Difficult Balancing Act |
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99 | (2) |
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101 | (2) |
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8 Time Favors the Insurgents |
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103 | (8) |
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Guerrillas Are Often in No Hurry |
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103 | (1) |
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Some Insurgents Are Still Waiting |
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104 | (1) |
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Trying to Win Too Quickly Can Hurt Insurgents |
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105 | (1) |
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A Key Center of Gravity Is Public Support for the COIN War at Home |
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106 | (1) |
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Foreign COIN Forces Are Challenged Because Their Time Is Likely Fleeting |
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107 | (2) |
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109 | (2) |
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9 COIN Wars: The Political Aspects |
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111 | (10) |
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Local Governments Engaged in COIN Likely Already Suffer Legitimacy Problems |
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113 | (1) |
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Military Organizations' Forte Is Not the Armed Social Work Needed for COIN |
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114 | (1) |
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Instituting Democracy Is Often a Facade and Isn't Always a Plus for COIN Warfare |
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115 | (2) |
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The Results of Even Fair Elections Are Not Always Predictable |
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117 | (1) |
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COIN Often Unwisely Tries to Strengthen Local Central Government |
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117 | (2) |
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119 | (2) |
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10 The Guerrilla Win and External Support |
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121 | (6) |
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Guerrillas Who Won Militarily or Politically Without External Aid |
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121 | (1) |
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Even Without External Aid Some Rebels Persevere |
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122 | (1) |
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Walls Can Be Effective in Keeping Out Aid and Fighters, But Not Permanently |
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123 | (1) |
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Guerrillas Who Likely Could Have Won Without External Aid |
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123 | (1) |
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Could Losers Win With External Assistance? |
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124 | (1) |
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124 | (1) |
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124 | (3) |
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11 The United States and Politically Dominated Wars |
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127 | (4) |
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Politics of Weapons Buying Stops Great Powers from Equipping for COIN |
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128 | (2) |
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130 | (1) |
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12 Prospects for Pending COIN Wars |
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131 | (20) |
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131 | (3) |
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U.S. Occupation of Afghanistan |
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134 | (6) |
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Counterinsurgency From the Air: The Drone Wars in Yemen and Somalia |
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140 | (5) |
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The General War on Terror |
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145 | (3) |
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148 | (3) |
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13 U.S. Track Record on COIN: Implications for Forces and Weapons |
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151 | (10) |
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U.S. Vital Interests Do Not Usually Require COIN Warfare |
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151 | (4) |
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What about the Unlikely Scenario of a Necessary COIN War? |
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155 | (3) |
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158 | (3) |
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14 The Domestic Effects of Overseas Counterinsurgency Wars |
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161 | (11) |
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164 | (2) |
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166 | (6) |
Conclusion |
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172 | (3) |
Bibliography |
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175 | (6) |
Index |
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181 | (8) |
About the Author |
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189 | |