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Safety Accidents in Risky Industries: Black Swans, Gray Rhinos and Other Adverse Events [Kietas viršelis]

(Aviation Consultant)
  • Formatas: Hardback, 188 pages, aukštis x plotis: 234x156 mm, weight: 312 g, 5 Tables, black and white; 22 Line drawings, black and white; 22 Illustrations, black and white
  • Serija: Developments in Quality and Safety
  • Išleidimo metai: 07-Jan-2022
  • Leidėjas: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 1032136472
  • ISBN-13: 9781032136479
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Safety Accidents in Risky Industries: Black Swans, Gray Rhinos and Other Adverse EventsDidesnis paveikslėlis
  • Formatas: Hardback, 188 pages, aukštis x plotis: 234x156 mm, weight: 312 g, 5 Tables, black and white; 22 Line drawings, black and white; 22 Illustrations, black and white
  • Serija: Developments in Quality and Safety
  • Išleidimo metai: 07-Jan-2022
  • Leidėjas: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 1032136472
  • ISBN-13: 9781032136479
Kitos knygos pagal šią temą:
Pastovi nuoroda: https://www.kriso.lt/db/9781032136479.html
Raktažodžiai:
This text introduces bad events (incidents and accidents) named as metaphors. The metaphors, called as "safety animals," are named as black swan, gray rhino, gray swans, and invisible gorilla.

The book analyzes incidents and accidents from the context of the safety management system in the risky industries including aviation, nuclear, chemical, oil, and petroleum. It further uses mathematical analysis of these events (through statistics and probabilities) and presents preventive and corrective measures in dealing with the same.

It comprehensively covers important topics including real-time monitoring, reverse stress testing, change management, predictive maintenance, management system, contingency plans, human factors, behavioral safety, anticipatory failure determination, resilience engineering (RE), resilience management (RM), Swiss cheese model, and probability distribution.

Aimed at professionals working in the fields of health and safety, quality engineering, compliance engineering, aerospace engineering, occupational health and safety, and industrial engineering, this text:











Provides an insight to safety managers in analyzing bad events and the ways to deal with them





Covers randomness, uncertainty, and predictability in detail





Explains concepts including reverse stress testing, real-time monitoring, and predictive maintenance in a comprehensive manner





Presents mathematical analysis of incidents and accidents using statistics and probability theories
Preface xi
Author xv
Acronyms and Abbreviations xvii
Introductory Explanations Regarding the Things and Terms in This Book xix
Chapter 1 Philosophy of Science As Introduction
1(22)
1.1 Introduction
1(1)
1.2 History of Human Scientific Thinking
1(3)
1.3 Determinism, Randomness, and Chaos
4(2)
1.4 "The Context of the Things"
6(3)
1.5 Reasons for Unpredictability
9(12)
1.5.1 Randomness
10(4)
1.5.2 Uncertainty
14(4)
1.5.3 Randomness Vs Uncertainty
18(3)
1.6 Randomness, Uncertainty, and Predictability
21(2)
Chapter 2 The Black Swan Events
23(34)
2.1 Introduction
23(1)
2.2 Can the BSe Be Considered in the Risky Industry?
24(2)
2.3 Consideration of the BSe in the Risky Industries
26(13)
2.3.1 It Is Unpredictable
27(1)
2.3.1.1 Extension of the Definition of Probability
28(3)
2.3.1.2 Statistics and Probability
31(1)
2.3.1.3 Probability Distributions
32(3)
2.3.2 It Has Huge (Usually Bad!) Consequences When It Happens
35(2)
2.3.3 Analyzing the Event Later, We Realize that It Was Logical to Happen
37(2)
2.4 The Characteristics of the BSe in Stock Exchange Area
39(4)
2.5 The Outliers and the Black Swans Events
43(3)
2.6 The Differences of "the Context of the Things" in Stock Exchange Vs Risky Industry
46(3)
2.7 Influence of the Complexity in the Risky Industries
49(1)
2.8 The Equipment and the BSe in the Risky Industries
50(7)
Chapter 3 Analysis of the "Fat-tails" in the Risky Industries
57(16)
3.1 Introduction
57(2)
3.2 Swiss Cheese Model
59(4)
3.3 Swiss Cheese Model and Alignment of the "Holes"
63(5)
3.3.1 Alignment of the "Holes" in Same Time
64(3)
3.3.2 Alignment of the "Holes" in Sequence of Time
67(1)
3.4 Multiple Causes of Accident to Happen...?
68(2)
3.5 May We Use This Approach in the Risky Industry?
70(3)
Chapter 4 What to Do with BSe in the Risky Industry?
73(12)
4.1 Introduction
73(1)
4.2 How We Calculate the Risk in the Risky Industries?
73(4)
4.3 BSe in the Risky Industries
77(3)
4.4 The BSe and Ignorance
80(3)
4.5 The BSe and Procedures
83(2)
Chapter 5 The Gray Rhino Events
85(10)
5.1 Introduction
85(1)
5.2 The Gray Rhinos
86(2)
5.3 The Phases of GRe
88(2)
5.4 Differences between BSe and GRe
90(1)
5.5 How to Deal with the GRe in General?
91(4)
Chapter 6 Specifics of the GRe in the Risky Industries
95(10)
6.1 Introduction
95(1)
6.2 How to Prepare to Handle GRe in the Risky Industries?
96(1)
6.2.1 Understanding the GRe in General
97(1)
6.2.2 Understanding the GRe in "the Context of Things" of Your Organization
97(1)
6.3 Information Vs Data
97(3)
6.4 Defense Lines for GRe
100(2)
6.4.1 Defense Lines of the Company
100(1)
6.4.2 Defense Lines of the Regulator
101(1)
6.5 Intentional or Unintentional GRe
102(2)
6.6 Coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020
104(1)
Chapter 7 The Invisible Gorilla
105(20)
7.1 Introduction
105(1)
7.2 The Invisible Gorilla Experiment
105(2)
7.3 Illusions of IG
107(8)
7.3.1 Illusions of Attention
108(1)
7.3.2 Illusion of Memory
108(1)
7.3.3 Illusion of Confidence
109(2)
7.3.4 Illusion of Knowledge
111(2)
7.3.5 Illusion of Cause
113(1)
7.3.6 Illusion of Potential
114(1)
7.4 IG in the Risky Industries
115(2)
7.5 How to "Fight" Illusions of Invisible Gorilla?
117(6)
7.5.1 How to "Fight" the Illusions of Attention?
119(1)
7.5.2 How to "Fight" the Illusion of Memory?
120(1)
7.5.3 How to "Fight" the Illusion of Confidence?
120(1)
7.5.4 How to "Fight" the Illusion of Knowledge?
121(1)
7.5.5 How to "Fight" the Illusion of Cause?
122(1)
7.5.6 How to "Fight" the Illusion of Potential?
122(1)
7.6 Epilogue for the Invisible Gorilla
123(2)
Chapter 8 Other "Safety Animals"
125(8)
8.1 Introduction
125(1)
8.2 The Gray Swan Events
125(1)
8.3 The Black Elephant Events
126(1)
8.4 The "No Seen -- No Hear -- No Speak" Monkeys
127(1)
8.5 The Ostrich in the Sand
128(1)
8.6 The Dragon-King Events
129(2)
8.7 The Red Herring
131(2)
Chapter 9 How to Fight "Safety Animals"?
133(40)
9.1 Introduction
133(1)
9.2 Areas Affected by "Safety Animals"
134(1)
9.3 Taleb's "Platonicity"
135(2)
9.4 The Gray Rhino's Harbingers
137(2)
9.5 Dealing with the Consequences Instead of the Causes...?
139(1)
9.6 Anticipatory Failure Determination (ADF)
140(2)
9.7 Video Games as Training and/or Analyzing Tool
142(1)
9.8 Real-Time Monitoring
143(4)
9.9 Reverse Stress Testing
147(1)
9.10 Change Management
148(1)
9.11 Predictive Maintenance
148(2)
9.12 Management Systems
150(1)
9.13 Contingency Plans
151(2)
9.14 Regulatory Bodies
153(2)
9.15 Survival Psychology
155(7)
9.15.1 Survival Psychology for Individuals
156(2)
9.15.2 Survival Psychology for Companies
158(4)
9.16 Resilience Engineering and Resilience Management
162(3)
9.17 Human Factors and Behavioral Safety
165(4)
9.17.1 Human Factors
166(1)
9.17.2 Behavioral Safety
166(3)
9.18 List of Hazards and Uncertainty
169(2)
9.19 What to Do If There Are Few "Safety Animals" at the Same Time?
171(2)
Chapter 10 Top Management and "Safety Animals"
173(12)
10.1 Introduction
173(1)
10.2 Management Teams
174(1)
10.3 Responsibility and Accountability
175(1)
10.4 Top Managers
176(2)
10.5 Undertaking Risk and Top Managers
178(1)
10.6 IG and Managers
179(2)
10.7 Cynefin Framework
181(4)
Final Words 185(2)
Index 187
Sasho Andonov is Graduated Engineer of Electronics and Telecommunications and he has Master Degree in Metrology and Quality Management. He has 30-years professional experience and the most of it is in aviation. Starting from 2005, he is mostly dedicated to Quality and Safety Management, especially in Risky Industries. His research interest is in Quality, Safety, Metrology, Non-Linear processes and Calibration. His teaching experience is built in the Military Technological College in Muscat (Oman) and in GAL ANS in Abu Dhabi (UAE) where he taught aviation subjects (EASA Part 66 and ATSEP). At the moment, he is working as Faculty Aviation Science of Higher College of Technology (Khalifa Bin Zayeed Air College) in Al Ain (UAE). He attended many conferences with his papers and he has published three books in USA covering areas of Quality Management, Safety Management and Quality/Safety Auditing.